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Bush boosted by bellicose convention
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 09 - 09 - 2004

President Bush received a major boost after last week's Republican Convention, but Democratic candidate John Kerry says he is still able to catch up, Khaled Dawoud reports from Washington
United States President George W Bush made no major policy announcements in the acceptance speech he delivered at the conclusion of the Republican National Convention (RNC) in New York last week. He stuck to the same main themes that defined his campaign to win a second term at the White House in the upcoming 2 November presidential elections. And, his popularity ratings rose significantly in all latest opinion polls.
On Friday, Time magazine released a poll showing Bush 11 points ahead of his Democratic challenger, Senator John Kerry, standing at 52 per cent to 41 per cent. A day later, Newsweek published a second poll with Bush up at 54 per cent, while Kerry stood at 43 per cent. Democrats immediately cried foul and charged the polls were not necessarily accurate because the two magazines surveyed more Republicans than Democrats. But a third USA Today /Gallup poll published on Tuesday reflected a more realistic estimate with Bush seven points ahead of Kerry among likely voters, at 52 to 45 per cent. A similar poll held by Gallup before the RNC had Bush two points ahead.
Although that was definitely good news for the Republican campaign, President Bush was among the first to concede on Monday that he still had "a lot of work to be done." Analysts point out that candidates tend to win a boost following the conventions of their parties. But the worrying sign for Kerry was that he did not win a similar boost after the conclusion of the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in Boston in late July.
Those polled after the Republican Convention also expressed more confidence in Bush in dealing with issues such as terrorism and national security, widening the gap that separated the two candidates a month ago.
However, the same analysts, and key strategists in both parties, concede that the 2 November vote will be among the most tightly contested in recent US history. Thus, if Bush seems clearly ahead right now, there remains room for other similar shifts in public opinion, depending on developments in Iraq and the performance of the economy.
On Tuesday, the number of US soldiers killed since the fall of Baghdad on 9 April 2003 stood at 998. The American media have been clearly waiting for the mark of 1,000 soldiers killed to start a likely new wave of criticism of Bush's conduct of the war, and the false justifications he used, particularly in relation to the ousted regime's possession of weapons of mass destruction, to start the extremely costly military operation in Iraq.
Nevertheless, Kerry's campaign managers grudgingly admitted there was a dire need for an immediate shift in strategy, considering that hardly two months were left before voters decide who will win the crucial presidential race. The agreed strategy seemed to be that the time has come to go on an all-out offensive.
Leading figures in the Democratic campaign now concede that they might have opted for the wrong strategy when they decided to "act civilised", and avoid direct personal attacks on President Bush during the DNC in Boston. During the convention, speeches of key speakers were reviewed by Kerry campaign officials to makes sure they did not include sharp attacks on Bush in his capacity as commander-in-chief leading the country in an ongoing war. Only once did Senator Edward Kennedy mention Bush by name in a speech criticising the president's record, while nearly all speakers at RNC led sharp personal attacks on Senator Kerry, led by Vice President Dick Cheney who mocked the Democratic candidate as an "indecisive figure" who was "unfit for command".
One of the main chants repeated throughout four days of the RNC was that of referring to Kerry as a "flip-flop".
Divided on making a decision on which topic will determine the outcome of the upcoming elections -- national security or domestic issues -- Democrats have apparently made the right choice, but adopted the wrong strategy. In his acceptance speech at the conclusion of the DNC, Kerry indicated that he understood that the priority for Americans at this stage was security. Therefore, his strategists decided that in order to portray his ability to command the country in war, they had to recall his Vietnam record as a warrior who fought bravely and won several honours.
But that policy proved to be disastrous. The Democratic strategists have apparently forgotten that Kerry was more known as a rebellious, young anti-war veteran than as a warrior. After a relatively brief service of four months in Vietnam, in which he definitely took part in dangerous battles, Kerry delivered a key testimony in front of Congress members in which he revealed that US soldiers were involved in brutal war crimes.
A group of Vietnam War veterans with clear links to the Republican campaign, who named themselves Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, launched an intense anti-Kerry television advertisement campaign. They first contested the stories of bravery Kerry and his brothers-in-arms recalled about the Democratic candidate, and then they highlighted his anti-war record that clearly makes him unpopular among the majority of war veterans. Kerry strategists believe this advertisement campaign has clearly hurt the standing of the Democratic candidate, shifting the debate to his own personal record instead of contesting Bush's leadership of the country over the past four years.
The Democratic candidate was also cautious since he started his campaign in criticising the Iraq war, fearing this could anger so-called swing voters who might be supporting the war, but unhappy with the way the Bush administration planned and carried it out.
Less than an hour after the Republicans concluded their convention, Kerry, in an unprecedented move, made an appearance in front of his supporters, marking a new chapter in his campaign strategy. Kerry lashed out at Bush and Vice President Cheney, saying his opponents were questioning his war record and fitness for command, while both have never experienced a war in their lives. Kerry was referring to allegations that Bush used his family's influence to avoid going to Vietnam and opted to serve as a reservist in the National Guard where he reportedly failed to report for duty.
Cheney, meanwhile, requested to defer his service five times, citing academic and family reasons, and did not serve in Vietnam.
But sources close to the Democratic Party said former President Bill Clinton, who continues to enjoy wide popularity within the party's ranks, told Kerry during a 90-minute conversation on Sunday to give up his Vietnam record strategy altogether. Clinton, who went through a successful heart by-pass surgery on Monday, told Kerry to concentrate instead on domestic issues, namely unemployment, education and health care, where Democrats have traditionally enjoyed a lead. The Kerry campaign also announced the appointment of a number of new advisers, mostly linked to Clinton.
In campaign speeches Kerry delivered on Monday, he clearly seemed to up the ante against Bush, criticising both his domestic policies and the war against Iraq. In another unprecedented attack, Kerry told supporters that the "W" in Bush's name stood for "wrong: wrong direction, wrong choices, wrong priorities, and wrong judgments for our country". He also described the Iraq war as "the wrong war in the wrong place at the wrong time". Kerry said if he became president, he would probably bring US troops back home by the end of his second term.
Bush, in a campaign in Missouri on the same day, was quick in refuting Kerry's charges, dubbing them as yet another "flip- flop".
Bush said that "after voting for the war but against funding it, after saying he would have voted for the war even knowing everything we know today, my opponent woke up this morning with new campaign advisers and yet another new position." He added: "Suddenly, he's against it [the Iraq war] again. No matter many times Senator Kerry changes his mind, it [the war against Iraq] was right for America then, and it's right for Americans now that Saddam Hussein is no longer in power."
Bush also criticised Kerry for setting deadlines to pull out US troops, saying that this was "the wrong message to the terrorists", and that US troops would stay in Iraq "until the job is done and not a day longer".


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