George W Bush seems likely to spend the "political capital" of his reelection on more wars, reports Khaled Dawoud from Washington Barely 24 hours after US President George W Bush delivered a victory speech in which he said he would "work to earn the support" of the 56 million Americans who voted for his opponent, John Kerry, he struck a different note in his first post re-election news conference. Bush told reporters at the White House that he would "reach out to everyone who shares our goals", begging the obvious question of how he would deal with those who do not. Pundits in Washington are divided over the direction Bush will follow in his second four-year term. Many senior officials, including Vice President Dick Cheney, view the Republican victory as a blank cheque. "President Bush ran forthrightly on a clear agenda for this nation's future, and the nation responded by giving him a mandate," Cheney told supporters before introducing the president to deliver his victory speech on 3 November. In his news conference the following day Bush echoed the same sentiments. "I have earned political capital in this election, and I'm going to spend it for what I told the people I would spend it on," he said. Many commentators, though, point out that Bush won with a two per cent majority, underlining the fact that the US is an increasingly divided nation. One report following the election pointed to the vast increase of hits on the Canada immigration website as increasingly large numbers of Americans contemplate leaving their homeland. No one in Washington is expecting a smooth second term, certainly not if Bush insists on following the unilateral policies that have alienated many key allies as well as almost half the American public. French President Jacques Chirac, a Bush administration hate figure, sent only a fax to congratulate the president after his victory. French sources in Washington say that this was because Chirac was concerned that "Bush might not pick up the phone to accept a message of congratulation". Evidence that Bush is unlikely to pursue a less divisive course mounted in the wake of his election triumph. The massive assault against Falluja, pursued in the face of warnings by United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan that it would only alienate more Iraqis and could derail Iraq's election timetable, has reinforced the fear of many that the world faces four years of more of the same. Sources in the Pentagon have told reporters they have assurances from Iraq's interim prime minister, Iyad Allawi -- a former CIA operative -- that the assault on Falluja would continue regardless of the number of civilian casualties. Bush aides have indicated that there is unlikely to be a major cabinet reshuffle: the occupants of key posts have the president's full confidence. Removing figures blamed for the ongoing mess in Iraq, particularly Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and his neo-conservative deputies, would have indicated a desire on behalf of the president to review his approach. But in his first post-election news conference at the Pentagon on Monday Rumsfeld indicated to reporters that he would like to keep his job because "there's much to be done". Attorney-General John Ashcroft, who topped the list of those expected to leave the administration, has stated that he is having second thoughts, reportedly telling aides that he would like to stay in office despite speculation he would leave for health reasons. Secretary of State Colin Powell, together with his deputy, Richard Armitage, were also among those tipped to leave, particularly if Rumsfeld remained in office. Yet sources close to the White House say Powell remains open to reconsidering his future. He will not, they say, be leaving office before the beginning of next year. As for the Middle East, Bush said he remained committed to his goal of encouraging "freedom and democracy as alternatives to tyranny and terror". He added that he would remain loyal to the doctrine that informed his first term: "If you harbour a terrorist, you're equally as guilty as the terrorist." Bush's cabinet is expected to increase pressure on Syria as neo-conservative calls grow for regime change in Damascus. Iran, also a major concern for Bush, is less likely to see immediate escalation, especially in light of the recent deal reached with Britain, France and Germany to suspend its uranium enrichment programme for six months. With the US army heavily involved in IraqDamascus is seen as a far easier target than Tehran. The failing health of Palestinian President Yasser Arafat is likely to put pressure on Bush to revive the Middle East peace process. Aides to Bush say that he wants to respond positively to repeated requests by his closest and most loyal ally, British Prime Minister Tony Blair, to renew efforts to bring a settlement to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In his news conference last week, and in response to false reports that Arafat had already died, Bush avoided criticising the Palestinian leader, and confirmed that he was committed to the vision of a Palestinian state declared more than two years ago. "We will continue to work for a free Palestinian state that's at peace with Israel," he said. That goal looks hopelessly optimistic in light of the alliance Bush has forged with Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. Israel is widely expected to seek to stall on any deal with the Palestinians, certainly until a future leader emerges, a process that is likely to be hugely complicated. Most indications are that Bush's second term will bring four more years of the same. And the heaviest price will probably be paid by the peoples of the Middle East.
