George W Bush's re-election inspired a heated debate at the American Chamber of Commerce in Egypt on the future of US-Egyptian relations. Gamal Essam El-Din reports In a memorable November 2003 speech at Washington's Heritage Institute for Democracy, US President George W Bush surprised everyone by saying, "Egypt showed the way towards peace in the Middle East, and it is now time [for it] to show the way towards democracy." The comment put Cairo at the forefront of the Bush "doctrine" for democratisation in the Middle East. That wide-ranging policy -- initially crystalised in what was called the "Greater Middle East Initiative" -- later foundered as a result of an increasingly tragic and complicated war in Iraq, as well as Bush's own re-election efforts. The 2 November re-election, however, has re- ignited debate over Bush's policies in the Middle East. In Cairo last week, top political figures from both the US and Egypt took part in a public discussion of some of the crucial issues in that regard. Gary Ackerman, the ranking Democrat on the US Congress's international relations subcommittee on the Middle East and Central Asia -- which has oversight on US policy towards nations in the Middle East and Central Asia -- joined Egyptian parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Mustafa El-Feki in a debate organised by the American Chamber of Commerce in Egypt (AmCham) on "the implications of the re-election of Bush on the relationship between Egypt and the United States". Although Ackerman and El-Feki agreed that Egypt and America enjoy excellent relations, they warned of scenarios that might turn the entire Middle East region upside down. According to Ackerman, there are good reasons for Egypt-US ties to remain positive, foremost among them that the two nations are determined to bring peace and stability to the region. Ackerman said Egypt's leadership was wise, and that Cairo was always giving the US good advice. He also indicated that "the Congress is highly appreciative of the [economic and political reforms being carried out by Egypt], and that US economic and political assistance to Egypt will remain unshakeable. This is what friends do to friends," Ackerman said. The congressman also said that he was happy that the relationship between Egypt and Israel had been warming up of late, and that this was a very good sign. He said the two countries had taken positive steps towards establishing QIZs (qualified industrial zones), which would lead to other helpful measures for business and the economy. The big question, in Ackerman's mind, was whether or not Bush would be more involved in the Middle East. "The problem is that the president is surrounded by the Christian right, or a small group of religious Christians who support him fervently, and this is disappointing to myself and others." The Middle East, he said, was destined to face three scenarios: the good, the bad and the ugly. Catching Osama Bin Laden would be good; Iraq turning into another Vietnam would be ugly, and would not portend well for democracy in the Middle East; the bad would be for Bush to resume his first-term policies on the Middle East. "The lesson of Iraq is that we should not engage in wars unless we have exhausted all other means," Ackerman said. El-Feki, for his part, said Bush's first four years were not all negative, and that "we can see some signs of hope if he is going to build on them, and make a breakthrough to create light at the end of the tunnel". The most positive thing about Bush's first term, El-Feki said, was that "Bush was the first US president to adopt the creation of a Palestinian state. Clinton, in spite of everything he did for Middle East peace, never categorically said he aims to build an independent Palestinian state." El-Feki said Bush's biggest negative was "mixing politics with religion, in spite of the fact that religious leaders can sometimes be straightforward and honest about their cause". El-Feki posited that all Arab states, and especially Egypt, were desperate for peace. "I want to say that the Egyptian people are fed up with both the Israelis and the Palestinians." He hoped moderation would prevail on both the Palestinian and Israel sides in the next stage, but "the problem is that Arafat is not Sadat, and the Palestinians are not Egypt." According to El-Feki, Egypt's leadership of the Arab world makes it the main target of Bush's reform plans. At the same time, he warned "that reform must not be presented as an American prescription." With a reasonably strong parliament and respect for human rights, El-Feki said, Egypt has a solid base for achieving democratisation. "All we want from America in the next stage," he said, is an end to talk of the clash of civilisations and ready-made reform. "The Bush administration has to stop using the language of force, and resort instead to working with us to promote the chances of peace." El-Feki said US-Egypt ties have always been good, and that "even in the days of late president [Gamal Abdel-] Nasser, during which Egypt and the old Soviet Union were close to each other, the Egyptian people were fond of America and its style of living." Ackerman said he agreed with almost all of El-Feki's comments, while lamenting at the same time that some Islamic leaders and clerics did not move quickly enough to condemn the 9/ 11 terror acts, or disassociate themselves from extremism. He agreed that the US should not play the role of the world's policeman. Answering a question posed by Al-Ahram Weekly about whether a settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict must precede democratisation in the Middle East, Ackerman said both issues must be pursued together. "This is why I hope that Bush's second term will see major policy shifts to achieve these two goals." El-Feki said there were two theories on democratisation in the Middle East. The first, coming from America, asserts that it is the lack of democratisation that breeds terrorism, while the other, coming from the Arab world, claims that people like Bin Laden and Saddam Hussein hijacked the Middle East conflict to spread terrorism. "This is why I believe that the administration must move on both fronts, giving importance to coordination with allies like Egypt, and [bringing an end] to using the language of force," El-Feki said. Asked by Cairo University professor Mohamed Kamal about the Democratic Party's 2 November defeat, Ackerman said Bush must still listen to minority opinion. "If he decided to go in one direction and ignore the opinion of the minority, we would surely face a bad scenario."
