As the registration period for candidates in the Presidential elections closes, Sherine Bahaa analyses Marwan Barghouti's decision to stand, while Khalid Amayreh in the West Bank assesses the apparent inevitabilitiy of an Abu Mazen victory The decision of jailed Palestinian leader Marwan Barghouti to stand in the upcoming presidential elections on 1 December - after he had initially withdrawn from the competition- came as a surprise not only to the public but to his own close associates. Barghouti's last-minute U-turn has indefinitely changed the course of the Palestinian presidential elections. For one thing, it is already causing a split within Fatah's ranks which Barghouti knew would happen, but decided to sacrifice for reasons he has yet to declare. Barghouti had backed down on 26 February after he came under pressure from Fatah which made clear from the beginning that it would not permit any division within its ranks. The passion and tenacity of the new generation of activists, born and bred under the Israeli occupation, continues to cause problems for the Fatah old guard, most of whom had learned their politics in exile and returned to the territories only after Oslo. With polls pointing to the great popularity Barghouti enjoys among his people, in addition to the support which Hamas promised him should he choose to stand as an independent, a generational clash had begun to seem inevitable. Unwilling to leave things to chance, Fatah assigned Qaddoura Fares, minister of state and a close associate of Barghouti's, to try to dissuade him from standing in the election against the tendency's official nominee Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen). Barghouti's popularity with both ordinary Palestinians and the new generation of Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) activists is second to none. By contrast, Abu Mazen has little popular legitimacy, and what power base he has is concentrated among the more conservative older generation. Famous (or for many, infamous) for his conciliatory approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Abu Mazen was appointed head of the PLO after the death of Yasser Arafat. During his brief reign as prime minister in 2003, he distinguished himself by openly distancing himself from the resistance. His remarks at last year's Aqaba summit, where he sought to discredit the four-year Intifada "as a mistake that handed the advantage to Israel", proved to be the last straw, and he was obliged to resign his charge after only 100 days in office. Since being appointed head of the PLO, he has continued in the same vein, promising to round up weapons from Hamas and Islamic Jihad. While outsiders see Abu Mazen as the only peacemaker likely to be welcomed by the US and Israel, for his critics within the movement the most he can ever be is a caretaker until a fully-fledged reform programme can be implemented to unify Fatah. According to sources close to Barghouti, Abu Mazen had sent him a message guaranteeing him an influential role within the Palestinian leadership. While this seemed to have appealed to Barghouti earlier this week, he seems to have been swayed by more crucial issues that Abu Mazin would have dilluted should he win the vote. The statement read by Barghouti's wife, Fadwa after she lodged his nomination papers with the electoral commission reveals much of his motives. "I have decided to enter this democratic battle to maintain the path of the intifada and the resistance and to defend it and protect it from being labelled as terrorism," he said. This is clearly against what Abu Mazin stands for. Barghouti, 45, grew up under the occupation. He was sentenced in June by an Israeli criminal court to five life terms for involvement in the killings of a number of Israelis. Barghouti was considered the mastermind of the second Intifada, and is one of Fatah's seven senior leaders. He represented the reformist current within the movement, and had long called for a larger role for the younger generation in the leadership. Barghouti's earlier decision not to contest the elections came after he had struck a deal with the Fatah old guard for internal elections to its various ruling bodies to be held in August 2005. These will be the first elections to be held by the movement since 1987 It was hoped that greater openness will help appease Fatah's increasingly restless younger activists. According toAgriculture Minister and member of Fatah's Revolutionary Council Abu Naja, the elections will take place on 4 August 2005 during Fatah's sixth conference. "New Central Committee and Revolutionary Council members will be elected, and if need be, a new party programme will be adopted and amendments made to the basic law," he added. It is not clear where these elections are viewed inside Fatah after Barghouti decided to run against their sole candidate, Abu Mazin. At present, Fatah's Central Committee is dominated by veterans of the PLO's Beirut-to-Tunis period. The younger generation of activists born and bred in the territories remains totally unrepresented. Now that he is running for the elections, the charismatic West Bank leader has changed the equilibrium of the Palestinian political scene. Until 1 December -the deadline for presenting candidacy applications- Fatah, by nominating Abu Mazin, was signaling it willingness to end the Intifada. Barghouti represents constituencies that don't like this message. He will be campaigning to release Palestinian prisoners, demand refugee rights and support for martyres and their families- issues that will be forgotten if Abu Mazin wins the vote, even if he says otherwise. Opinion polls show that Barhgouti's popularity is unmatched by any other living Palestinian leader. But things might turn nasty with the US, Israel, Arab leaders standing on the other side, with Abu Mazin. If it is nothing else, Barghouti's decision is a clear message to all that there is at least one person willing to take all risks for the sake of non-negotiable Palestinians national rights. Fatah rallies behind Abbas The mainstream PLO faction, Fatah, is rallying behind acting PLO leader Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) as the movement's sole candidate for President of the Palestinian Authority in the upcoming elections scheduled to take place on 9 January. Fatah leaders, especially at the senior level, have nearly unanimously endorsed Abu Mazen's nomination on the grounds that his candidacy guarantees continuity and forestalls threats to the internal unity of the movement. Senior Fatah leaders, such as Abbas Zaki, recognised in a speech in Dura, south of Hebron, on Sunday, that while Abbas was not the most ideal man to succeed Arafat, he "suited this phase of our struggle more than anybody else." "He is accepted by the international community and his presence at the head of the Palestinian Authority at this crucial juncture serves the paramount interests of our people," said Zaki. He also revealed that the Tunis-based Head of the PLO's Political Department, Farouk Al-Kaddoumi, had been asked to put himself forward as Fatah's nominee, but refused, arguing that his presence abroad was vital to follow up the interests of millions of Palestinians living in the Diaspora. Meanwhile, Abbas, PA acting President Rawhi Fattouh, and Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei' have been visiting Cairo and Jordan and meeting with a host of regional and foreign officials to try and create a political momentum which they hope can revive the peace process made moribund by more than four years of internecine violence between Israel and the Palestinians. The three Palestinian leaders sought and obtained Egypt's and Jordan's support for organising the upcoming elections. They also received a pledge from Egypt that it would assist the PA in rebuilding its security apparatus. Abbas, apparently sure of wining the 9 January elections, is already behaving as an elected leader. Earlier this week, he told the American newsmagazine Newsweek that he would meet with Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon once the Palestinian elections were over. Sharon, in a separate interview with the same magazine, also voiced his willingness to meet with Abbas. However, the psychological honeymoon between Israel and the emerging Palestinian leadership did not last long. On Sunday 28 November, Abbas said during a press conference in Cairo that the PA would not accept an interim agreement with Israel. "We will not accept a temporary solution. It is a waste of time. Even a state with interim borders is a waste of time. We are only 13 months from the end of 2005, so that is enough to negotiate and put an end to this problem." Sharon rejected Abbas's remarks, calling them unacceptable, and repeated earlier demands that the new Palestinian leadership display "moderation" and "realism." It is not clear though if Abbas's "get-tough" posture is tactical in nature, being aimed at winning support among a suspicious Palestinian public, or accurately foretells his future negotiating position with the Israelis. Many Palestinians are still suspicious of Abu Mazen because of what they see as his excessively dovish stance during the so-called Oslo era, and especially his speech in Aqba in southern Jordan in which he voiced his willingness to recognise Israel as a Jewish state and denounced Palestinian resistance as "terror." In any case, the upcoming elections will show whether Fatah, and in particular its old guard, will be able to mobilise both its own supporters and the Palestinian people at large behind a man who seems destined to be compared, unfavourably, with Yasser Arafat. Meanwhile, Palestinian political activist Mustafa Barghouti has formally declared his candidacy for the presidential election. In a press conference in Ramallah on Monday, he said he represented the silent majority of Palestinians, adding that the would represent the interests and aspirations of the "downtrodden people" who are usually overlooked by politicians. Barghouti said he would push for the creation of a viable Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital. He also declared his commitment to the Palestinian refugees' right of return pursuant UN resolution 194. Barghouti enjoys widespread respect and is popular among some elitist circles. However, it is doubtful that he will pose a serious challenge to Abbas, especially if Fatah stands behind its candidate with its full force. Political observers in Palestine are waiting to see whether the Islamic resistance group, Hamas, will decide to back a specific candidate for the upcoming election, or just ask its supporters to vote for whoever they deem agreeable. Hasan Yousuf, Hamas spokesman in the West Bank, told Al-Ahram Weekly Tuesday that the movement would make a decision on this matter over the next week. "We have not taken a decision either way, but we will make one very soon, God willing," he said. Yousuf hinted that Hamas was likely to take a decision to participate in the legislative elections which may take place on the first of May. There is no doubt that Hamas's participation in the legislative elections would change many things in the Palestinian Authority, and might also lead to a turnabout in the way Palestinians perceive themselves and are perceived by the world. Moreover, Hamas' more direct involvement in Palestinian politics might also presage greater cooperation with Fatah, the biggest nationalist movement in Palestine, and effectively the ruling party of the PA. On Monday, Hamas and Fatah together received more than 90% of student votes in the Najah National University student council elections, in which as many as 11,000 students took part. Fatah won 38 seats on the 81-seat student council, while Hamas won 36 seats, with two seats going to the Islamic Jihad. The five remaining seats went to the Popular and Democratic Fronts for the Liberation of Palestine. Normally, college elections in the occupied territories are viewed as a useful barometer for broader trends in Palestinian public opinion.
