Charlotte Ashley assesses the candidacy of Mustafa Barghouti With the withdrawal of Marwan Barghouti's candidacy from next month's Palestinian presidential elections the contest to succeed Yasser Arafat is now a two-horse race between Fatah nominee and former prime minister Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), and Mustafa Barghouti, a Palestinian civil society leader and founder of the democratic alternative movement, the Palestinian National Initiative. If recent media coverage of the elections suggests that the Fatah Revolutionary Council candidate is home and dry the mood is not quite so clear cut on the streets of either the West Bank or Gaza. What to the media seems certain to be Abu Mazen's upcoming presidency is still a contested issue among those who in January will be going out to vote. Indeed, Mustafa Barghouti's name is being thrown around in some surprising circles, and his campaign appears to be gaining momentum on the street. The latest opinion poll, conducted by Alpha, places the two presidential candidates almost neck and neck; Abu Mazen is polling at 44 per cent with Barghouti not far behind on 40 per cent. The remaining 16 per cent of voters are undecided. And if the narrowing of the field from 10 candidates to just two has limited the choice available to voters, the remaining candidates could not be more different. Mustafa Barghouti is a human rights activist who has spent his life and career working in grassroots movements both at home and abroad. A founding member, and later president, of the PMRS, a voluntary medical relief movement, Barghouti has worked for 25 years in towns, villages and refugee camps providing for the social, medical and educational needs of the Palestinian people. He commands respect and embodies hope. Those eager for a real change in Palestine, both domestically and in terms of a final agreement with Israel, are looking with optimism to Barghouti. He's not, you often here on the street, like the rest of them. And indeed he is not. A pragmatic leader, Barghouti has stressed national unity within a Palestinian state while steering clear of both association and confrontation with Arafat's old guard. Abu Mazen, on the other hand, who has already replaced Arafat as PLO chairman, epitomises the old guard. He is viewed as the best of a bad lot and few have any illusions that his presidency will offer anything more than a continuation of the same. With approval ratings of just two per cent while in office as prime minister Abu Mazen lacks any popular following and is using the trappings of the PA to campaign for his election. This, in large part, accounts for Mustafa Barghouti's virtual absence in the local media. The media monopoly does not conform to the open democratic process that the international community claims to advocate. The suggestion that the votes are already in for Abbas, the moderate who has opposed the armed struggle against Israel, is nothing more than an attempt, by insiders and outsiders with a keen interest in Abbas's victory, to pre-determine the results of the elections. Meanwhile, neighbouring despots will do little in the way of encouraging democratic trends likely to unsettle their own increasingly fragile dictatorships. But when it comes down to it, it is Israel that holds the key in facilitating Abu Mazen's election. Despite gestures echoing Colin Powell's guarantee of full American support for the Palestinian electoral process Israel has done little to make good on its assurances to ease travel restrictions within the occupied territories. Barghouti has been denied access to towns and cities within the West Bank, and has on several occasions faced harassment and physical assault at Israeli checkpoints. By denying permits to his staff the Israeli government this weekend attempted to prevent a visit by Barghouti to the Gaza Strip. Not put off, he has travelled alone, intent on passing the message to those imprisoned in Gaza that this is the very occupation and tyranny he intends, if elected, to free them from. Barghouti faces not just his opposing candidate but the might of the Palestinian old guard, the apprehension of neighbouring dictators and the expectations of the United States, to say nothing of the daily obstacles Israel is putting in his way. The obstacles placed before this candidate are astounding, but his determination has won him unquestionable and undeniable support, whatever the media says. As the campaign officially begins, it is likely that increased numbers will take his determination to heart and have the courage of their convictions when voting on 9 January. In three weeks this two-horse race will be decided, and although Mustafa Barghouti is certainly encountering the greater hurdles, he remains the fitter contender. While Abu Mazen may appear to be leading as the race enters its final bend it is, as increasing numbers are coming to realise, far from won.
