In 2004 Iran weathered storms both domestically and in its foreign relations, writes Rasha Saad Iranian negotiators -- described by Mohamed El-Baradie, head of the UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), as "tough and skilful" -- secured a major success in 2004 when Tehran escaped referral to the UN Security Council over its nuclear programme. In November the board of governors of the (IAEA) adopted a resolution approving Tehran's deal with Britain, Germany and France struck earlier in the month. Had Tehran failed to meet the November deadline for suspension of sensitive nuclear activities the EU would have joined the US in pushing for a harder line. The resolution described the suspension as a voluntary confidence-building measure and not a legally binding commitment. Iran's position is that it has a "sovereign right" to enrich uranium and is only suspending the activity to reassure the world that its intentions are peaceful. While expressing anger at calls that it halt its uranium enrichment programme Iran kept the door open for dialogue with the Europeans. Iranian and European officials trailed the EU-negotiated agreement as opening up a new era of cooperation between Tehran and Europe, with EU Foreign Policy Chief Javier Solana stressing that Iran's pledge to freeze uranium enrichment had opened "a new chapter" in bilateral ties. Iran and the EU are now engaged in talks aimed at a longer term nuclear deal, with Europe backing Iran's bid to join the World Trade Organisation (WTO), a move that would help Iran gain access to peaceful nuclear technology. The decision to exclude Iran from access to such technology has always been regarded as politically motivated. The last thing Washington and Israel want is a second nuclear power in the region. Yet other commentators believe that the main source of friction between Washington and Tehran is over Iraq. The US knows that Iran can influence Iraq's Shia majority and is pressing the Islamic republic to use that influence to benefit US interests. Tehran has accorded a luke-warm reception to several US demands, resulting, some observers say, in US pressure over nuclear and human rights issues. That US President George W Bush gave the most cautious of welcomes to the Iran-EU nuclear agreement suggests that, while Washington is not exactly happy it has no other options up its sleeve. With American troops sunk in the Iraqi quagmire using force against Iran is not a viable option in the foreseeable future. The US has instead resorted to political pressure. Tensions between Iraq and Iran surfaced early in 2004 when Iraqi officials accused Tehran of interfering domestically. The campaign against Iran escalated when Iraqi Defence Minister Hazem Al-Shaalan labelled Iran as "Iraq's enemy number one" and accused the Islamic republic of "attempting to pervert Iraq's national identity". In November King Abdullah of Jordan joined the chorus of complaint when he accused Iran of trying to influence the 30 January elections in a bid to create a Shia "crescent" extending from Iraq to Lebanon. Iran described the allegations as baseless. Meanwhile, US officials have repeatedly accused both Syria and Iran -- both of which oppose the continued occupation of Iraq by foreign troops -- of failing to prevent the infiltration of foreign agents into Iraq and of supporting anti-coalition insurgents inside the country. Iraq may well have reasons to fear Iran. Certainly the Iraqis are aware that Tehran, increasingly concerned about the presence of US troops along its borders with both Iraq and Afghanistan, is eager to influence the situation in Iraq. Iraqi officials are concerned that thousands of Iraqis, or half- Iraqis, who lived in Iran and were cooperating with Iranian intelligence during Saddam's rule, have returned to Iraq. 2005, then, will see Tehran facing an ironic double-bind: how can it help build a stable Iraq without giving the impression that it is cooperating with its arch enemy, the United States. In June US officials announced that two Iranian security guards at the Iran's UN mission had been expelled from the US. American officials claim the Iranians had been repeatedly warned against the guards videotaping bridges, the Statue of Liberty and the New York subway. According to the officials it was the third time the Iranian guards at the mission had been involved in such activities. Also in June Iran complained that one of its diplomats had been briefly detained in Iraq and questioned by US forces. The diplomat was then released. Domestically, Iran began 2004 facing the devastation that came in the wake of the 26 December earthquake that left 50,000 dead in the historic city of Bam. A political earthquake soon followed, with the routing of reformists in the February parliamentary elections. The presidential elections due in June, 2005 are expected to mark the final defeat of reformists. President Mohamed Khatami, elected in 1997, cannot stand for a third successive term. Among the leading contenders for the post are former president Hashemi Rafsanjani, and Iran's top national security official Hassan Rowhani, both conservatives. In February's elections Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, head of the conservative Abadgaran, or Builders of Islamic Iran coalition, replaced reformist Mehdi Karroubi as parliamentary speaker. Pro-reform candidates only won 40 seats in the 290-seat assembly. The sweeping conservative victory came after a turbulent month. In January the conservative Guardian Council had barred more than 2,000 reformists, including 80 sitting MPs, from running for office. The move marked a new phase in Iran's struggle for democracy and provoked a mass sit-in by reformist parliamentarians with threats by reformist politicians, including President Khatami, of mass resignations and a boycotting of elections. These were held as scheduled following the intervention of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the re-admission of several hundred barred candidates. The Guardian Council and reformers exchanged increasingly bitter accusations. The former claimed disqualified candidates had failed to respect either Islam or the Iranian Constitution, while the latter accused the conservatives of trying to rig the elections. 2004 saw Khatami's popularity plummet as the public grew increasingly disillusioned with his inability to push through reforms. The reformist-dominated Interior Ministry put voter turnout at the parliamentary elections at 50.57 per cent, the lowest in a national election in the Islamic republic's 25-year history. While reformists attributed their loss to the Guardian Council's machinations many commentators point to growing public scepticism over the reformists' ability to deliver on promises of greater democracy and jobs for Iran's 10 million unemployed young people. But if the reformers were defeated at the polls, the reform agenda survived, with many conservative candidates adopting reform slogans and vowing "not to turn the clock back on reforms". The sincerity of such vows will undoubtedly be tested in 2005.
