The New Year holds out at least the promise of peace for Sudan. But how will the deal due to be signed next Sunday play out, writes Gamal Nkrumah Expectations are running high that 2005 might be the year in which warring Sudanese factions begin to wind down their seemingly endless conflicts. Last Friday Sudanese Vice-President Ali Othman Mohamed Taha, and the leader of the Sudan People's Liberation Army, John Garang, signed a peace accord. Attending the ceremony were Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki and his South African counterpart Thabo Mbeki, a signal that Sudan's African neighbours are taking the Sudanese peace process extremely seriously. In a ceremony scheduled to take place in Kenya on Sunday, expected to be attended by 20 mostly African heads of state, Sudanese President Omar Hassan Al-Beshir and Garang will sign the final peace deal. Former US president Jimmy Carter is expected to be present. "It was a monumental task -- nearly mission impossible," conceded Kenyan- national Lazaro Sumbeiywo, the chief mediator in the Sudanese peace talks. The Sudanese civil war, which erupted in September 1983, is Africa's longest- running conflict. It has claimed the lives of an estimated two million people and left five million homeless. The peace talks, which started in Kenya in 2002, ran into many difficulties and appeared to teeter on the brink of collapse. Heavy-handed US political intervention and behind-the scenes arm- twisting saved the talks which were almost derailed by battles over the southern Sudanese garrison towns of Torit and Kapoeta. Mindful of earlier false starts many people in Sudan and abroad are pinning their hopes on the arrival of United Nations peace-keeping troops who will oversee the implementation of the Sudanese peace accords. The UN will deploy 10,000 troops as part of a monitoring force whose mission "will not be to keep peace, but to boost it," explained Jan Pronk, UN special envoy to Sudan. These are profound changes that mark the dawning of a new era. But much scepticism and many of the old fears about Sudan's future remain. Sudan is not a homogenous nation, and the huge country -- Africa's largest -- is home to many rival ethnic, racial and religious groups. A new explosion of violence in eastern Sudan, Nubia or Kordofan cannot be ruled out. And while the situation might have improved in the south the situation in Darfur remains explosive. Sunday's signing ceremony will underline the apparent transformation in Sudan's peace prospects. The dilemma will be how to reconcile vastly different interpretations of the peace deal. Few argue with the symbolic importance of the event, though international humanitarian groups and aid agencies are not altogether happy with the pace of peace and reconciliation processes in Sudan. "To be quite frank the situation isn't improving," Dominik Stillhart, head of the International Red Cross and Red Crescent (ICRC) in Sudan, told Al- Ahram Weekly. "At least, not in Darfur." The most visible aspect of the crisis in Darfur is the lack of security and the lack of food, potable water and medicine. "The main challenge facing the ICRC in Darfur is securing the well-being of ordinary people in the war-torn region. The security of the people of Darfur is paramount. As things stand today, nomads can't move anymore." Stillhart said that many of Darfur's traditionally nomadic people are now "herded into refugee camps and utterly dependent on food aid". Nor have farmers planted crops. "The peasants of Darfur have only planted a third of what they plant in a normal year," says Stillhart. And to make matters worse the rainy season was bad. "We expect a further deterioration in the humanitarian crisis in 2005. The people of Darfur will need substantial humanitarian aid next year." There are three million people in Darfur who are totally or partially dependent on food aid. "The main task of the ICRC is to distribute international relief assistance to the most needy people in Darfur." The ICRC, Stillhart said, monitors the ceasefire and conducts confidential dialogues with the parties concerned. But its primary task was to improve people's access to basic healthcare. "The ICRC provides safe potable water for an estimated 250,000 people on a daily basis. It has set up two rural hospitals, one in north Darfur and the other in west Darfur." It is also engaged in encouraging people to return to their villages and in re- uniting families separated by the conflict. ICRC activities are closely coordinated with the Sudanese Red Crescent Society and with the Sudanese authorities. The ICRC budget for 2004 was $70 million for the whole of Sudan, half for Darfur and half for the south. In 2005 the ICRC is planning to allocate one-third of its budget to activities in southern Sudan and two-thirds for Darfur. Roughly 45 per cent of the ICRC budget is allocated to food aid and essential household items and 25 per cent is reserved for medicine, medical equipment and healthcare. A further 10 per cent is allocated to water and sanitation projects.
