The ruling NDP and the opposition embark on a new political dialogue next week. But constitutional reform is off the agenda, reports Gamal Essam El-Din Ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) officials like to see themselves as masters in the art of political manoeuver. That self-image seemed justifiable last week when leaders of the three major opposition parties -- the liberal Wafd, the leftist Tagammu and the pan-Arab Nasserists -- said they would not press the issue of broad constitutional reforms during next week's national dialogue conference. For seasoned political observers, the opposition's abrupt about face was not all that surprising. True, constitutional reform has lately looked to be a life-and- death issue for the opposition -- with bold statements being made in the lead up to the dialogue at public gatherings and in the party press. Yet, the major opposition parties have a checkered history of backtracking on reform, as Hani Enan, businessman and activist, put it. A member of the Egyptian Movement Change, popularly known as Kifaya (Enough), Enan said the parties had banked too heavily on the effects of US pressure to democratise the Arab world. "When the golden opportunity to press the NDP for broad constitutional reform never really materialised, the parties had nowhere else to turn," he said. The Tagammu Party appeared to lead the opposition's retreat. After meeting with NDP Secretary-General Safwat El- Sherif and his assistant Kamal El- Shazli on 18 January, Tagammu veterans Khaled Mohieddin and Rifaat El- Said said that while amending the constitution would continue to be a top reform agenda priority, it could wait until President Hosni Mubarak was nominated for a new term. The same scenario took place the next day, this time with Wafd Chairman Noman Gomaa, who shrugged off the possibility that his party would withdraw from the national dialogue because it would not be addressing constitutional reforms, originally one of Al-Wafd's primary demands. Nasserist party leader Diaaeddin Dawoud, who also met El-Sherif, denied that his party had backtracked in any way. Amending the constitution is "an inevitability" that must not take a back seat to other reforms, he said. "The Nasserists are the only organised political force that has continued to say 'no' to Mubarak extending his term in office," Dawoud told Al-Ahram Weekly, although he was not optimistic about the dialogue bringing about any serious political reform. In any case, he said, "it is still a good forum to set out the party's political positions before the public." The NDP, meanwhile, was busy putting the finishing touches on the dialogue conference, which will open on 31 January, with 15 out of a total of 18 legal political parties participating. Each of the participants will be given the floor for 15 minutes, ostensibly to present differing visions on political reform. "At the end of this procedural session," El-Sherif said, "the participants will meet to work out any disagreements." During the second session, participants will need to agree on political reforms -- including amending the laws regulating the formation of parties, the exercise of political rights and the People's Assembly -- so that these can then be forwarded to parliament. The conference will also focus on "a code of ethics" aimed at governing upcoming parliamentary election campaigning. This code, El-Sherif said, seeks to impose a ceiling on campaign spending, as well make clear that cabinet ministers and provincial governors must abstain from making use of their influential positions to promote NDP candidates. When President Hosni Mubarak first unveiled the national dialogue initiative during the NDP's first annual conference in September 2003, most opposition parties welcomed it wholeheartedly. Later, however, these parties said they had serious doubts about the proposed dialogue actually leading to significant political reform in the near future. The opposition's doubts were aggrevated by NDP foot-dragging on the dialogue throughout 2004. They, therefore, went on to establish a coalition called the Parties' Consensus for Political Reform. On 21 September, they met to declare a joint platform for political and constitutional reform, which platform now appears to have been put on hold, at least for the time being. The upcoming dialogue will be the fourth hosted by the NDP since 1987. Most observers agree, however, that the dialogues that took place in 1982, 1986, 1988, and 1993 did not accomplish much in terms of political reform. The NDP, said Tagammu Secretary- General Hussein Abdel-Razeq, usually resorts to these kinds of national dialogue initiatives whenever it finds itself in a crisis. "In 1993," Abdel- Razeq told the Weekly, "the NDP was facing an unprecedented threat from Islamist terrorism, and it was important at the time to mobilise all political forces against this threat." When the tide of Islamist militancy largely ebbed in 1995, Abdel-Razeq said, the NDP decided not to implement the reforms proposed by the opposition during the June-July 1994 dialogue. In 2003, Abdel-Razeq said, the NDP was facing a two-pronged dilemma: a severe economic crisis causing soaring public discontent, and an impatient America bullying its Arab allies to democratise. Now, with the world rather unsure about the Bush administration's seriousness about reform (despite the rhetoric at last week's inauguration), "it was only natural for the dialogue initiative to enter the limbo stage again," Abdel-Razeq said. The NDP only really moved when the Parties' Consensus threatened to boycott the dialogue unless it was held in January, claimed Abdel- Razek. In the meantime, he added, the NDP was also busy trying to undermine the opposition parties' consensus. Their strategy, he went on, involved bullying a group of low-key parties into rallying behind the NDP in rejecting broad constitutional reform, especially calls for a direct presidential poll and constraining the president's powers and terms in office. El-Sherif and other top NDP figures have been arguing that in taking this stand, they have Egypt's national and strategic interests in mind. When opposition leaders come to the dialogue next week, El-Sherif said, "they must realise that all Egyptians wholeheartedly support the reform process launched by President Mubarak." El-Sherif also reiterated an argument he had suggested earlier this month that there was insufficient time to implement constitutional reforms before the presidential referendum later this year. "The reforms that are quite difficult to implement right now can find their way to fruition after the referendum," he said.
