Confident of electoral victory the United Iraqi Alliance has begun to outline Iraq's new political order, writes Omayma Abdel-Latif Though the ballots are still being counted, early returns from the Iraqi elections indicate the shape of the emerging political order, with a landslide victory for the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) list, which groups Shia parties and is said to enjoy the blessing of Iraq's grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani, virtually guaranteed. Figures released by the Independent Electoral Commission suggest the UIA had received 2.2 million out of the 4.2 million votes counted by Monday, leaving it poised to secure at least half of the seats in the National Assembly. A two-thirds majority in the assembly -- possibly in coalition with Kurdish parties -- would enable the UIA to dominate the drafting of the constitution and, as a result, determine Iraq's future political order. Hardly surprising, then, that so much commentary should have focussed on the regional implications of a Shia-dominated government in Iraq, and whether or not this will open the door for the rule of ayatollahs. While an overwhelming electoral victory for the UIA was expected, the poor performance of the list headed by Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, which appears to have been beaten by the Kurdish list into third place, has surprised many. Al-Sistani looks set to emerge as the most influential figure in the post- election period. "Those who voted for the UIA," explains Sheikh Jawad Al-Khalissi, head of the Iraqi Founding Convention which boycotted the elections, "voted for Al-Sistani". "A large swathe of Iraqi society believes the marjiya (religious seminary) is the only body that has kept its integrity intact and that reflects the popular will of the Iraqis," says Al-Khalissi. Confident of victory the UIA appeared to have already started to dictate the rules of the political game when, early this week, a fierce debate broke out over the role religion should play in delineating Iraq's new political map. Should Islam be the only source of legislation or one among several? Statements attributed to Al-Sistani first indicated that the grand ayatollah, along with other members of the religious seminary, had cautioned against any attempt to separate religion from the state. A statement issued on Sunday in Najaf insisted that "the religious seminary will only accept a constitution that acknowledges Islam as the sole source of legislation and that any item will be rejected if deemed in contradiction with the Islamic creed." On Tuesday, however, Al-Sistani's aides, while stressing the ayatollah believed legislation must respect Iraq's Islamic identity, insisted he had not made the remarks attributed to him. "The majority of the population is Muslim so it is only natural that their aspirations and demands are met when the new constitution is being drafted," Murtada Al-Kashmiri, Al-Sistani's spokesman told Al-Ahram Weekly in a telephone interview from Abu Dhabi. The argument is an old one. In March 2003, when a similar debate broke out during the drafting of the State Administration Law, a compromise was reached. The law acknowledged Islam as the official religion of the state and "one" of the sources of legislation. Despite its showing at the polls few commentators expect it will be smooth sailing for the UIA. Among the challenges that will put the alliance's mettle to test will be filling the post of prime minister. Signs of internal friction emerged this week when four figures from the alliance -- Ahmed Chalabi of the Iraqi National Congress, Hussein Shahrestani, the Iraqi nuclear scientist, Ibrahim Al-Jaafari, head of Al-Daawa Party and Adel Abdul-Mahdi, the Iraqi finance minister -- expressed their wish to be nominated. How the UIA will negotiate this, and other challenges to unity, is by no means clear, with many observers pointing out that it is Al-Sistani who has so far managed to keep the groups that comprise the UIA, with diverse ideological backgrounds and a history of animosity, from splintering. Meanwhile deals are being struck by other political groups. The Dubai- based Al-Arabiya satellite channel reported on Monday that negotiations were underway between Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, Iraqi President Ghazi Al-Yawar and the veteran Iraqi diplomat Adnan Pachachi, with the aim of forging an alliance capable of counterbalancing UIA influence in the assembly. But for Iraqis like Sheikh Al- Khalissi the most crucial challenge facing any future Iraqi government remains how the elected body interacts with the US. "Now the question is whether or not the UIA and any coalition it formulates demands, on behalf of the electorate, that the US immediately withdraw so as to assert the sovereignty of Iraq," Al-Khalissi said.
