Some in Syria call for an immediate pullout from Lebanon, given the surge in opposition activity, while others choose patience. Sami Moubayed writes from Damascus The mood in Syria is starting to turn sour, as Syrians have been watching the news from Lebanon over the past week, and seeing the anti- Syrian propaganda that is coming out of Beirut. The rhetoric has provoked reactions of fear, anger and disgust among most Syrians. Many locals are saying: it is time to leave Lebanon if that is what all the Lebanese are asking for. Two camps exist today in Damascus. One camp, represented by the majority of Syrians, is very upset at the anti-Syrian rhetoric, and angered and saddened by former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Al-Hariri's death, yet enraged that the assassination has been used by the Lebanese opposition and the United States to settle old scores with Syria. This group is wondering why, if the Syrians are so unwanted, they have stayed in Lebanon for so long; why the Lebanese -- many of whom are now in the opposition -- have been so eager to win the blessing of Syrian statesmen; and why Syria renewed Lebanese President Emile Lahoud's mandate, arousing the anger in Lebanon and costing Syria its reputation in the international community. This group now feels that the Syrians must leave Lebanon, and argue that they should have withdrawn before United Nations Resolution 1559 was passed. The second camp is composed of hard-liners who still believe that if the Syrian army leaves Lebanon, Israel will seek to destabilise Lebanon, that chaos will prevail, and that civil war will break out again. Indeed, this view has been echoed by Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. This group of Syrians still argues that the Syrians have the majority vote in Lebanon, despite all the propaganda being aired on Lebanese satellite television, and that Syria will reach an agreement with the US and France to stay in Lebanon, just as it did after the Gulf War in 1991. The government has so far reacted to the killing of Al-Hariri in a very strange manner. Taken aback by the sharp Lebanese and international criticism and appalled by the fact that many were so swift in accusing Syria, officials have preferred to stay out of the entire ordeal, neither joining the mourners, nor standing up to publicly defend Syria's innocence. Shortly after leading Syrian officials appeared on satellite television defending their state, Al- Hayat newspaper reported that these officials went on to receive direct instructions in Damascus to refrain from making too many televised appearances, so as not to give an impression that Syria was guilty and pleading innocent. Condemnation of the assassination took place at an official level, but Syrian state officials were for the most part absent from Al-Hariri's funeral. Some argue that this was for security reasons, while others say that this was a message of objection to how things were being done, directed at the Lebanese opposition. The presence of Syrian Vice-President Abdul- Halim Khaddam did little to defuse the situation, since he was in Beirut, with Al-Hariri's family, as a close personal friend and not in his capacity as second-in-command to President Bashar Al- Assad. Other figures like ex-defence minister Mustafa Tlas also showed up, but also as a private citizen and not in his capacity as a leading member of the Syrian Baath Party. And while world leaders eulogised the slain statesman, Syria's Al-Assad remained silent. Syrian Prime Minister Naji Al-Otari did not attend the funeral, nor did he pay his respects. Speaker of Parliament Mahmoud Al-Abrash did not attend either, nor did representatives of the various chambers of commerce in Syria, nor did the ministers of Al-Otari's cabinet. While the Lebanese press was filled with long editorials about Al-Hariri, and sent messages of condolence to Al-Hariri's family, the Syrian press went on with its routine coverage, while only one privately-owned newspaper, Al- Iqtisadiya, paid adequate tribute to the assassinated former premier. Many in Syria argue that Syria is still strong in Lebanon and that it can overcome what the opposition has described as a peaceful "intifada of independence" against Syria and Lahoud's regime. Advocates of this reasoning argue that the only significant figures leading the anti-Syrian campaign who must be reckoned with are the Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, ex-army commander Michel Aoun and, to a lesser extent, ex- president Amin Gemayel. Meanwhile, Patriarch Mar Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir, who once spearheaded the opposition, has made a very wise appeal for calm in Lebanon and is demanding that all sides abide by the Taif Accords, which provide the current regime with the legitimacy to rule. The opposition, this camp argues, does not outnumber the group of Sunnis, Shias and Christians who want the Syrians to stay in Lebanon. One should not forget that many of those in power today are leaders in their own right, popular in their respective constituencies, and thus cannot be dismissed. The confidence with which they addressed the public after the three-day mourning period, through Prime Minister Omar Karameh, shows that they plan on taking the fight to the ballots, and will not step down easily. The resignation of Tourism Minister Farid Al-Khazen did nothing to shake the confidence of Karameh's cabinet, and he was immediately replaced. And when the opposition threatened to bring down the government, Interior Minister Sulayman Franjiyyieh said, "The state will not stand idly by," and threatened to seek the Lebanese army's intervention to put down disturbances. Syria's opponents are creating a very tense atmosphere in Beirut, where ordinary Syrian citizens have not dared venture since Al-Hariri's death, in fear of being attacked by the anti- Syrians. Stories of vandalism against Syrian property, physical assault on Syrian labourers, and smashing of cars bearing Syrian licence plates have crept into Damascus, thus causing Syrian worries to escalate further. Some have already crossed the border into the Lebanese town of Shtura to withdraw their money from Lebanese banks, fearing that the worst is yet to come, and deposited it in the new privately- owned banks that have opened in Syria. Thousands of Syrians flock to Lebanon every week, spending their money at hotels, restaurants and nightclubs, while many businessmen have much invested in Lebanon. According to The Daily Star, Syrian businessmen and investors hold 15-20 per cent of bank deposits in Lebanon. Thousands of Syrian students study at Lebanese universities, paying tuition, rent and living expenses that amount to no less than $500 per month per student. It is not in Lebanon's interest to lose this steady flow of income from the Syrians. In addition, there are currently one million Syrian workers in Lebanon, who helped construct Al-Hariri's post-war Beirut for salaries so low that no Lebanese labourer would accept. Ironically, it is they who have borne the brunt of anti-Syrian attacks in Lebanon since the death of Al-Hariri, and not the Syrian army.
