Troop withdrawal is one thing but complete withdrawal is another thing altogether, writes Sami Moubayed from Damascus The mood in Syria is relaxed after President Bashar Al-Assad's speech on 5 March where he declared that the Syrian Army would withdraw from Lebanon in compliance with the Taif Accord of 1989 and UNSC Resolution 1559. There are no contradictions between Taif and Resolution 1559, Al-Assad said, pointing out that "the Taif Accord is mentioned in the UN resolution, and it is also recognised by the United Nations." Contrary to what many people in Syria feared, Al-Assad did not aggressively defy the US, made no mention of France, and supported Resolution 1559. He told Time magazine: "I am not Saddam Hussein. I want to cooperate." Domestically, the speech boosted Al-Assad's standing among a people increasingly worried by Syria's isolation. He assured them and others that he would cooperate with the US and would do all that it takes to preserve Syria, even if that meant disengaging from Lebanon. Al-Assad appeared before parliament seeming relaxed, confident and in a surprisingly good mood, despite all the pressure being put upon him by Washington. Syria has always taken great pride in its relationship with the United Nations. It boasts of having been a founding member in 1945 and of having served on the Security Council, as a non- permanent member, in 1947 and 2002. In his speech, Al-Assad surprised many by saying, "Despite our reservations on Resolution 1559, our decision was to deal with it in a positive manner." He even added, "We don't have a problem with the United Nations regarding 1559." Further, he noted France and the US prepared it -- as President Bush said in an interview with a French magazine -- soon after the war on Iraq ended in 2003. Al-Assad was saying two things via this statement. First, that Resolution 1559 was not directly related to the renewal of Emile Lahoud's mandate in Lebanon. Second, that assassinated ex-prime minister, Rafiq Al-Hariri, did not instigate it, as many Western -- and particularly US -- media sources said, suggesting that this was why Syria had an interest in eliminating him. Syria cannot, Al-Assad added, "oppose or confront the United Nations". By saying that, he was stressing that he had no intention of defying the international community, as Saddam Hussein had allegedly done in 2003. Al-Assad stressed twice in his speech that he was never opposed to a Syrian troop pullout from Lebanon, saying that since 2000, Syrian forces have dropped from 40,000 to 14,000. They will become 2,000 once they are relocated in the Beqaa Valley, as dictated by the Taif Accord. Many have neglected the fact that Lebanon, although giving Syria great geo-political strength in the 1990s, nevertheless was a great financial burden. Recently, it became a political burden as well. Nearly 80 per cent of Syria's taxes are spent on the Syrian Army; mostly on the 15,000 soldiers stationed in Lebanon. Having freed himself from the political burden of Lebanon, Al-Assad will free his country of the financial burden as well. Money usually spent in Lebanon will likely be used to advance domestic programmes, administrative reforms and wage increases to state employees. Since coming to power in 2000, he has increased wages by over 100 per cent and cut down military service by six months, thereby saving on military expenditure. For their part, Syrians, greatly annoyed by anti- Syrian sentiment in Lebanon, responded with patriotism. As Syrian troops start to leave Lebanon so will Syrian money from Lebanese banks, which, according to Damascus Chamber of Commerce President Rateb Al-Shallah, amounts to $10 billion. Already Syrians have largely stopped going to Lebanon, where they would usually spend weekends at restaurants, hotels, boutiques and nightclubs. Already, this has had substantial impact on Lebanese businesses. Hotels are reportedly empty, as are shopping malls. Bank managers are reporting that in less than one working day some banks are disbursing $500,000 to Syrian clients closing their accounts. While Lebanon's economy relies heavily on Gulf tourism in May-August, year-round the only tourism that comes to Lebanon is Syrian. It seems the Lebanese never expected such a spontaneous and united backlash to recent upheavals against Syrian citizens, which explains why opposition leaders like Walid Jumblatt hurried to tone down anti-Syrian rhetoric over the past few days. Meanwhile, many in Syria are saying that they do not want to set foot in Lebanon again, claiming that the chants being heard in Beirut were not anti-Syrian government, but anti- Syrian in general. With a greatly injured pride, they cannot forget hearing "Syria is dying," while others were saying, "We want to say the truth: We despise Syria." Others were even blunter in their anti-Syrian sentiment: "We want to speak openly: We don't want to see a Syrian." Of course, the gridlock in Syrian-Lebanese relations will not last forever and Al-Assad recognised this by underlining that "Syria's power and its role in Lebanon do not depend on its presence in Lebanon, because this strength has to do with the facts of geography, history, politics, culture, spiritualism and humanity." Practically every Syrian family has a branch in Lebanon that they will continue to visit, with or without the Syrian Army. Lebanon's universities remain the finest in the region with the American University of Beirut (AUB) among the finest in the world. Syrian youth will continue to study in Lebanon, with or without the Syrian Army. Greatly overlooked are the interests of the Gulf States, particularly Saudi Arabia, in a strong Lebanese economy, due to the huge amounts of investments they made in Lebanon during the era of Rafiq Al-Hariri. They will work to stabilise relations between the Syrians and Lebanese, pressing the Lebanese to tone down their statements and the Syrians to restore confidence in Lebanon. This is where Saudi Arabia's role came into play, one day before Al-Assad's speech before the Syrian parliament. Al-Assad went to Riyadh, met with Crown Prince Abdullah, and promised to end hostilities by calling his army out of Lebanon. In turn, Saudi Arabia gave Syrians assurances that it will not be isolated and that Riyadh would maintain order and tranquillity in Lebanon. It was Saudi Arabia after all, that backed Syria's intervention in the Lebanese civil war in 1976, during the Arab Summit held in Riyadh. It was Saudi Arabia that tried to bring an end to hostilities in 1983-1984, through none other than its envoy Rafiq Al-Hariri, and which hosted and brokered the Taif Accord of 1989. In 2002, during the Paris II Conference, again held by Al-Hariri in France, Riyadh gave Lebanon $700 million in aid, all of which will be wasted if chaos prevails in post-SyriaLebanon. Saudi investors flocked into Lebanon in the 1990s, Prince Walid Bin Talal, for example, opening the $140 million Mövenpick Hotel in Beirut. It is neither in the interest of Saudi Arabia nor the Gulf, and not either in the interest of Lebanon, that Syrian troop withdrawal affect Syrian-Lebanese relations. This is something that the Syrians have realised but many in Lebanon, sadly, still fail to comprehend.
