Police repression, political exclusion and regional violence are all contributing to the re-emergence of militant Islamism, writes Omayma Abdel-Latif If Interior Ministry statements are anything to go by, the same small terrorist cell -- most of whose members are now either in custody or dead -- perpetrated all three of the recent Cairo attacks. "The ring is an isolated group," the ministry said, discounting possibilities of links to any of the traditional Islamist movements that embraced violence against the state in the late 1980s and the first half of the '90s. Not taking much comfort in the ministry's assurances regarding the culprits' limited network of associates, or the vague descriptions of the "jihadist doctrine" they had embraced, many analysts were worried about the attacks being just the tip of the iceberg. Some said the incidents marked the birth of a new breed of militant Islamists who aren't necessarily emerging from the fold of traditional Islamist movements like Al-Gamaa Al-Islamiya and Al-Jihad. Instead, combined with the tremendous political tension and spread of regional violence in the wake of the US invasion of Iraq, they are the product of the state's failure to politically integrate Islamists, "There are indeed many signs that a new breed of Islamists is emerging," Mamdouh Ismail, a former member of the Jihad movement, and a founding member of the Al-Sharia Party, told Al-Ahram Weekly. Their ideology, as well as their strategies, Ismail said, remain at best unclear to security pundits -- and even some in the Islamist movement itself. According to Ismail, these groups are mainly characterised by their extreme Salafi beliefs, and their lack of political ideologues or spiritual leadership. "We don't know who their leaders are, or the precise motives inciting them to resort to violence, which might explain the difficulty we face in forecasting when or where they will hit next." If the Al-Azhar bombing and Saturday's two attacks are anything to go by, this emerging group's primary target -- so far -- looks to be the tourist industry. Tourism has been a soft target for Egypt's militants since early 1992, when the first attack against a tourism-related target took place. The fact that two of the injured tourists in Saturday's attack were Israelis, and that the tour bus targeted in the second incident had Israeli tourists in it, might not have been a sheer coincidence. Some analysts said it would confirm their view that militancy's comeback is directly related to a growing political confrontation between the US and political Islam. "Just as the US launched a war against a faceless, nameless enemy, under the rubric of terrorism, these groups have decided to launch their war against anything Western. To them, any foreigner in the land becomes synonymous with America," said Rifaat Sid Ahmed, Head of Jaffa Centre for Political Studies. He pointed out that the spread of regional violence following the US invasion of Iraq and Israel's barbaric war against the Palestinians have greatly strengthened radical voices, drowning out the moderates in the process. "This prevalent sense of ruthless US hooliganism, and its imposition of lawlessness -- called constructive chaos by their officials -- is partly responsible for the re-birth of this random brand of Islamism." Some Western analysts share Sid Ahmed's view. In a policy paper titled Islamists and Democracy, Graham Fuller, the former vice-chair of the National Intelligence Council at the US Central Intelligence Agency, forecast Islamist militancy's Egyptian comeback "given the huge political tension within a state such as Egypt, the reasonable likelihood of political explosion, the regional polarisation and the ongoing discrediting of all authoritarian leadership, we cannot rule out the possibility that remnants of these earlier movements may once again adopt violence as a way to combat the state, especially should it show signs of tottering." While prior to 11 September 2001, the state seemed to have prevailed in its struggle against militant groups through often ruthless security strikes, 9-11 itself -- in the view of Fuller and some Egyptian analysts -- may have re-opened a violent road. "Bush's war on terrorism, and the prolonged violence of the US war in Iraq, have revivified movements of violence in an expanded armed struggle against the American presence in the Middle East," Fuller wrote. While it is plausible to suggest that the spread of regional violence may be among the reasons for the re-emergence of militancy in a country like Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood Deputy Supreme Guide Mohamed Habib thinks the more immediate factor is related to the political tension which the country has been embroiled in for the past year. The fact that the Islamists -- who have given up violence -- were not politically rewarded by the state, is another reason for the re- emergence of violence. "The regime went on rounding up Islamists, and did not open up spaces to channel their views and dissent. Many thought the peaceful path bore no fruit for them. The torture continued, and the oppression continued," Habib said. He added that had the state provided space for a group like the Muslim Brotherhood, such incidents would not have taken place. "If we were given a chance to interact with the people, to explain to them what true Islam was about, and how violence is not an appropriate tool, such groups would not have come into being in the first place." Habib pointed out that his group would welcome a role in stemming the comeback of militant Islamists, provided the package of political reforms that the Brotherhood, along with other opposition forces have been calling for, is seriously considered by the regime. His request is not likely to be responded to any time soon. Caution is a must in evaluating this newfound extremism. The dearth of information, which only emerges from official Interior Ministry statements, combined with the lack of transparency regarding the investigations, make it all the more difficult to conclusively decide whether the Al-Azhar terror ring is a manifestation of militant Islam's comeback, or just an isolated group. Still, some Islamists say Egypt had it coming; that there were signs that an explosion was set to take place. Both Ismail and Habib hold the government fully responsible for failing to accommodate the emerging dissent. Ismail said the eight- year hiatus -- from 1997, when Al-Gamaa Al-Islamiya declared the cessation of all violent acts against the state following Luxor massacre, until 2005 -- left a false impression that the security's ruthless means of eliminating Islamists had borne fruit. The Al- Azhar bombing, nonetheless, proved that security had actually failed to handle such a volatile situation properly. "They have rounded up Islamists, neutralised the mosques and denied them a space in the political process, while the ground remained fertile for the re- emergence of new generations, as long as political oppression remained," said Ismail. Ismail believes Saturday's twin bombing bear the mark of a retaliatory action, in response to what he described as an over- reaction by the security forces, when they arrested hundreds of suspects after the Al-Azhar attack. After the latest incidents, at least 200 people were arrested as part of yet another security round up, which as usual included both close and distant relatives of the culprits. "The fact that so many houses have been raided, and families and distant relatives terrorised by security, has left a sense of humiliation and bitterness," said Ismail, who is also a lawyer who defends Islamists. "People no longer trust that they will get justice. And when the only fate awaiting them is torture, death becomes the other less humiliating option."
