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Only doubt is dependable
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 19 - 01 - 2006

The fate of both the trial of Saddam Hussein and the so-called political process is shrouded in uncertainty in Iraq, writes Omayma Abdel-Latif
Of the unstoppable stream of reports coming from Baghdad this week, few headlines featured news about government formation talks. Rather, news about the uncertainty surrounding the fate of the Saddam Hussein trial after the resignation of Rizgar Mohamed Amin, the court's presiding judge, took precedence. Amin had privately complained about severe criticism directed against him from mainly Shia politicians who accused him of being "soft" on Saddam in court.
Khamis Al-Obeidi, a member of Saddam's defence team, pointed out that the resignation goes to prove the meddling of Iraqi government and US officials in the trial proceedings. Although Iraqi officials say that Amin's resignation has not been accepted, efforts are underway to find a replacement with Amin rejecting all appeals for him to reconsider his position. Iraqi official sources emphasised that the court session due next week -- the eighth to date where Saddam and seven members of his regime are being tried for the killing of 148 people in Dujail -- will go ahead.
The fate of the political process is not any clearer. The latest round of talks over government formation saw the emergence of a Shia-Sunni dispute over the allocation of government posts, particularly security-related portfolios.
The Sunnis, newcomers into a political process whose legitimacy they still question, have made it clear that they want to be in charge of the security file. Sources close to the Iraqi Accord Front (IAF) headed by Adnan Al-Dulaimi, one of the main Sunni-led lists that contested the 15 December elections, said that the front has demanded to be assigned either the Interior Ministry or the Defence Ministry, besides the Foreign Ministry, which has been the exclusive domain of the Kurds. The reason, IAF sources said, was mainly due to the poor performance of former officials.
"The Iraqi citizens have lost any confidence that these ministries are able to restore security and stability, and it has translated itself into a battle for settling old scores," a member of the IAF told Al-Ahram Weekly. He pointed out that the front was ready even to sign a charter committing it to a neutral stance, refraining from adopting sectarian or ethnic-based policies in running the ministries' affairs.
The last defence minister was a Sunni while the Interior Ministry has been occupied by Jabr Baquer Solagh, a member of the main Shia group, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI). Solagh has been openly accused of adopting sectarian policies. A torture scandal that broke last November, and in which the ministry was involved, only confirmed accusations. But sources within the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) -- a Shia umbrella group -- insist that the Interior Ministry "will remain in the hands of the alliance."
Sunni leaders have been calling for a national unity government to represent Iraq's diverse political forces. The new government, they stress, should make clear where it stands regarding a number of key issues, most important of which are the end of the US occupation and withdrawal of foreign troops, the rebuilding of the Iraqi army and maintaining Iraq's national unity. Naseer Al-Aani, a senior member of the Iraqi Islamic Party said that many, particularly within Sunni circles, are in favour of a rotation process where the post of the president should not be confined to Kurdish figures. The Kurds, for their part, have demanded that their participation in the government should go beyond figurehead posts. "We want to be real partners in power and not just occupiers of ceremonial positions," Fuad Ma'soum, a leading member of the Patriotic Unionist Party of Kurdistan (PUK) said.
In a press statement on Monday, Jalal Talabani, interim president, pointed out that "the Sunnis should be included in the new government at any cost and that he was not in favour of a government composed of Shia and Kurdish elements only. The new prime minister, Talabani pointed out, should be a figure recognised and accepted by all parties. In what was considered an attempt to influence the process of selection, Talabani named Adel Abdul-Mahdi, the former interim vice president and leading SCIRI member, as one closest to those requirements. Talabani had privately expressed objection to the renaming of present interim Prime Minister Ibrahim Al-Jaafari as premier, whom he considers performed badly during the past year.
Sources within the UIA say that a final decision over the identity of the Alliance's candidate for the top post is yet to be made. Both Abdul-Mahdi and Jaafari are on equal bar when it comes to their chances of winning the post. The alliance will run a secret vote to put an end to speculation over the name of its candidate.
Meanwhile, daily attacks targeting civilians and police forces continue unabated. This week saw the assassination of Sheikh Abdel-Ghafour Al-Rawi, one of the leading figures of the Iraqi Islamic Party in Ramadi. Al-Rawi's son held what he described as "the armed extremist groups" responsible for his father's killing. He told reporters that there was much anger and resentment against those groups who target moderate voices in Ramadi. "They -- the militant groups -- want to silence those voice calling for a peaceful settlement. The support they have been gaining from the people is eroding and Iraqis are fed up and about to explode against them," Huzaifa Al-Rawi was quoted as saying by the London-based Al-Hayat newspaper.
Al-Rawi was referring to groups affiliated to the Jordanian militant Abu Musaab Al-Zarqawi. Relations are extremely strained between Iraqi resistance groups and Zarqawi's Al-Qaeda, which has been severely criticised by Iraqi resistance forces for targeting Iraqi civilians and tarnishing the image of the resistance.
Meanwhile, the "thunder operation" -- codename for clampdowns and house-to-house raids carried out by US occupation forces and the Iraqi police -- is ongoing. Nonetheless, attacks continue. On Monday, a third US helicopter in 10 days was downed. While US army sources declined to give reasons for the crash, the Iraqi resistance group Salah Eddin Al-Ayoubi Brigades -- the military wing of the Islamic Front for Iraqi Resistance -- claimed responsibility for the operation. Local witnesses said the helicopter came under missile fire.
A high ranking Iraqi security official told reporters that the number of "terrorist attacks" was reduced 40 per cent last week compared to the previous week. Major-General Abdul-Aziz Mohamed, head of joint operations in the Iraqi Army, said that 29 "terrorists" were killed and 220 detained. He did not explain the exact reasons for the decrease in the number of attacks but proffered that, "it could be either bad weather or feast holidays."


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