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Between a rock and a hard place
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 14 - 04 - 2005

Two years after the invasion, Iraqis want the occupation troops out. Will the new Iraqi leadership respond? Omayma Abdel-Latif writes
Signs of growing frustration among larger sections of the Iraqi population against the United States-led occupation have never been clearer. This week, Iraqis marked the event with anti-US protests. "Every Iraqi has a right to demand his freedom," said one protester. "The Americans wanted time and we gave them time, now we want to rule ourselves."
Rallies in Ramadi, Anbar, Baiji and Baghdad sought to convey a distinct message: "get the Americans out of Iraq". The biggest protest was organised by supporters of young Shia leader Muqtada Al-Sadr and took place on Saturday 9 April, the day Baghdad fell to occupation troops. The focal rallying point was Al-Firdaws Square in Baghdad, where two years earlier, the statue of Saddam Hussein was toppled, marking the end of his 35-year Baath Party rule.
This time, however, Al-Firdaws protesters had a different set of demands: a timetable for the withdrawal of the occupation troops and the trial of the former Iraqi president and his men.
Such protests and demands -- coupled with the continued waves of violence plaguing the country since its occupation -- pose some of the most difficult challenges for the new Iraqi cabinet. The new Iraqi leadership, according to observers, is coming under increasing pressure from cross-sectarian sections of the Iraqi population to respond to such demands. It is therefore likely to be one of the issues which will make or break the new Iraqi cabinet.
But Iraqi analysts argue that although demands for a timetable for withdrawal of the troops reflects a growing popular will, it is unlikely that it will be among the new cabinet's top priorities. "The security file will remain the most important challenge facing the new cabinet," Sawsan Al-Assaf, head of the International Studies Centre at Baghdad University told Al-Ahram Weekly. "Everything in Iraq now boils down to how the security situation is improving. Containing popular discontent and consolidating national unity mainly depends on how the new cabinet will handle the security," Al-Assaf explained.
During his surprise visit to Baghdad on Tuesday, US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld met newly elected Iraqi leaders. The fate of the 135,000 US troops was not, according to press reports, on the agenda. A vague reference to the presence of the US security forces in Iraq was made, suggesting that it was "not something that is going to go on forever". Rumsfeld coached the new Iraqi leaders on how to run the country and keep away from corruption and incompetence. "It's important that the new government be attentive to the competence of the people in the ministries and that they avoid unnecessary turbulence," he said.
Clearly, the deteriorating security situation has always been the pretext both for Iraqi and American officials to remain vague about setting a definitive timetable for the withdrawal of troops. This week, Iraqi officials responding to such demands have made it clear that it was premature to ask the foreign troops to leave at a time when the Iraqi police and army forces were not ready to take full charge.
Iraqi President Jalal Talabani and his Deputy Ghazi Al-Yawar categorically ruled out government requests for the occupation troops to withdraw. Talabani coupled this stand with a number of steps which mainly sought to engage Iraq's marginalised political groups in the political process.
This week Talabani met Sunni leaders in an attempt to gain their consent to rejoin the political process, and addressed the release of Sunni Arab prisoners. In his acceptance speech, he proposed an amnesty for Iraqis battling against US forces. "Our Sunni Arab brothers made a big mistake when they boycotted elections," Talabani said. "But they are an important group and we cannot ignore them. They must take part in the democratic process."
Such vague statements, however, are not likely to cut any ice with many of the Iraqi nationalist movements such as the Association of Muslim Scholars and Al- Sadr movement which have conditioned their participation in the political process with a clear-cut timetable for withdrawal.
"We are not saying that they should leave Iraq immediately," explained Mothanna Harith Al-Dhari, spokesperson of the Association of Muslim Scholars. "We are asking them to set a timetable to withdraw in stages, but we need, at least, to see some progress on this front. This is a very legitimate right," he said.
Analysts believe that this issue is likely to test the strength of the Iraqi government. It was the number one topic on the electoral platform of the Unified Iraqi Alliance, the bloc which holds the majority of seats in the National Assembly. Some Iraqi MPs have said that they will raise the issue in future National Assembly meetings. As Al-Assaf explained, "on the one hand, the Iraqi cabinet cannot ask the US to withdraw or even set a timetable for withdrawal. On the other hand it has to prove to the Iraqi people that it reflects the growing popular demand to replace foreign troops with Iraqi national forces."
To resolve this dilemma Al-Assaf believes that the proposal of the Association of Muslim Scholars should be seriously considered, suggesting that the Iraqi Assembly put forward a request to seek a gradual withdrawal of the troops.
"Resolving such an issue will play a big role in consolidating national unity and in making the citizens believe in the government's intentions to provide security and stability for all Iraqis," Al- Assaf concluded.


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