Michael Aoun: The former army general who has returned home after spending 15 years in exile. He leads the Free Patriotic Movement. This election is a very difficult test for the general as it will clearly show his true political weight, which his detractors say has been exaggerated by his supporters during the years when he was in exile. Aoun has called on the Christian electorate in Beirut to boycott the elections, drawing some angry responses from some Christian circles who believed his move was meant to divide the Christian street. Aoun has fallen out with both Walid Junblatt and Saad Al-Hariri and failed to reach an agreement on an electoral alliance in Mount Lebanon. He has also fallen out with members of Qernet Shehwan, a Christian opposition movement, and many believe that the 65- year-old general is in a battle to regain his leadership of Lebanese Christians. Many accused Aoun of wanting to eliminate his rivals. Aoun says that his electoral platform is based on fighting corruption and bringing back the Lebanese state. He also stated clearly that his platform is cross sectarian and secular. He is running in Mount Lebanon which is expected to be the fiercest battle in the 2005 elections. The press has dubbed it the mother of all battles as it will be a battle over the Christian leadership. The irony is that when Aoun failed to strike an alliance with the Junblatt- Hariri bloc, he opted to cut deals with some of the pro-Syrian forces. His list is expected to take between 5-8 seats in the parliament. Saad Al-Hariri: The heir to Rafiq Al- Hariri's throne, and a newcomer to the Lebanese political scene. Capitalising on his father's legacy, 35-year- old Al-Hariri, who holds an MBA in business administration took almost no time in gaining the confidence of the Beirut-based electorate, particularly within the Sunni circles in Beirut. According to Hani Hamoud, editor-in- chief of Al-Mustaqbal newspaper, in less than two months, Al- Hariri Jr succeeded in building a consensus around him. His sweeping victory in Sunday's elections, taking all of Beirut's 18 seats, was a very strong boost for Al-Hariri as he launches his political career. Some have even suggested his name to be Lebanon's coming prime minister. While Al-Hariri himself played down such reports, he nonetheless did not rule them out completely. Al-Hariri's political alliance with Druze leader Walid Junblatt is likely to make him the leader of the strongest bloc in the coming assembly and thus he will have some political capital to spend. One of the very important issues which Al-Hariri will be addressing is the investigation of the killing of his father, as the UN investigation committee began its mission this week. Secondly, Al-Hariri must deal with how to improve the worsening economic situation the country has faced during the past few years. Walid Junblatt: The Druze leader who emerged during the past few months as the leader of the Lebanese opposition par excellence. A very shrewd political leader, Junblatt is the architect of most of the electoral alliances in the 2005 elections. He is said to have engineered a quartet which includes Al- Hariri's Tayar Al-Mustaqbal, Hizbullah and Amal movement as well as his Progressive Socialist Party. But Junblatt has extended his political alliances to include members of Qernet Shehwan, a Christian alliance, and even Al-Quwwat Al-Libnaniya (the Lebanese militia). In his attempt to show goodwill, Junblatt went so far as to name George Edwan, a senior member of the Lebanese militia, to his electoral list in Mount Lebanon despite his history as the liason between Israel and the former Lebanese president Basheer Al- Jumayel. According to Junblatt, the move was meant to reflect a sense of national unity which has emerged as a result of Al-Hariri's death. Junblatt is set for a fierce battle against Aoun in Mount Lebanon. Junblatt's main electoral programme is to fully implement the Taif Accord and has repeatedly stressed that the issue of disarming Hizbullah was a purely Lebanese issue. Junblatt has used his popularity to sway the political process towards assuring the domination of his alliance with Al-Hariri in the coming parliament. The alliance is expected to take between 35-40 seats in the 128 parliament making it the biggest parliamentary bloc able to make or break any government. Hizbullah: A key political player on the Lebanese scene. It is also the subject of one of the most contentious issues in the current political debate in Lebanon. Hizbullah was part of the Al- Hariri-Junblatt alliance. It allied with Al-Hariri in Beirut when it put Amin Sherie, a Hizbullah member, on Al-Hariri's list, thus ensuring that the Shia vote in Beirut will not be divided, particularly when Sherie was facing a strong contender in the form of Ibrahim Shamseddin. This electoral alliance is expected to extend to the battle in the Bekaa Valley where a landslide victory is also expected for the list, which includes Al-Hariri, Hizbullah and Amal candidates. Hizbullah's alliance with the Amal movement in the south of Lebanon is stronger than ever and both blocs are expected to take 23 seats. Hizbullah is counting on the fact that these electoral alliances will eventually be transformed into political alliances which will secure the political backing and consensus the party desperately needs when the time comes to discuss the more important issues of disarming it. Al-Quwwat Al-Libnaniya (the Lebanese militia): A disbanded militia that has transformed itself into a political bloc after the detention of its leader Samir Jajae in 1994. It enjoys a high degree of popularity in the Christian street although the continuos security clampdowns have forced them to go underground. But during the past few months, Al- Quwwat emerged as a key partner within the ranks of the Lebanese opposition and proved a force to contend with. Junblatt decided to strike an alliance with Streda Jajae, wife of the detained leader, to have her on his list in Mount Lebanon. There are a number of issues both Junblatt and Al-Quwwat have reached consensus on. One of them is that the ceiling of the future political process in Lebanon will always be the Taif Accord. Jajae himself was one of the architects of the agreement. The number one item on Al-Quwwat 's agenda will be the release of their leader. It is expected to win four seats.
