Lebanese President Emil Lahoud may be running out of magic wands to pull from his presidential hat to preserve his post, reports Hicham Safieddine Debate over the future of Lebanese President Lahoud reached new heights in Lebanon while he attended the United Nations General Assembly's 60th session in New York over the weekend. Now, the former army general will have a lot of fences to mend after his return as more light is shed on the circumstances surrounding the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Al-Hariri. Lahoud's presidency first came under a heavy cloud of suspicion after the UN investigation led to the arrest of four high-ranking security officials, including the head of Republican Guard Mustafa Hamdan who is close to Lahoud. Since then, additional steps to investigate Lebanese and Syrian suspects in the case have been taken. Lebanon's central bank has lifted the bank secrecy of the accounts of two Syrian officials and six pro-Syrian Lebanese military chiefs, including the four arrested, according to a report by the Associated France Press. The pro-Syrian president's eventual stay in power or removal in the near future will be a signal of the preservation or change of the current balance of power inside Lebanon between loosely-defined pro and anti- Syrian camps. Jockeying among different Lebanese power groups to float potential candidates and set out conditions for accepting a future heir to Lahoud continues. But what are the prospects of a change of guard at the helm of the Lebanese state and who are the candidates? While Lahoud was in New York, the Free Patriotic Movement led by former exile Michael Aoun held a special ceremony to restructure the group as a full-fledged political party. The Sunday gathering was an opportunity for Aoun, who leads one of the three largest voting blocs in parliament, to comment on his plans for the presidency. Aoun, like many Christian leaders, had been wary of calling on Lahoud to step down for fear of undermining the presidential post symbolising the power of Christian Maronites. An ex- general like Lahoud himself, Aoun continues to make the distinction between the presidency and the man holding it. He was less reserved this time around about the prospect of running for president before the end of Lahoud's term if need be. "I don't think I recommended myself," he said when asked by reporters about his possible bid for the presidency following the promulgation of his party's manifesto on Sunday. "Newspapers and people suggested my name as a possible contender for the presidency and I have accepted the challenge." Aoun enjoys wide popular support among the Christian population and has allies in the Muslim camp. He has maintained good relations with the United States during his 15 years of exile and is not hindered by any past connections to Damascus like other seasoned politicians of the post-civil war period. Other prominent Christian leaders have also voiced their willingness to join the fray for the presidency at the right time. MP Butros Harb of the Qurnet Shehwan Gathering, another main Christian coalition established under the patronage of Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir, said it may be too early to speak of a presidential race after a meeting with the patriarch over the weekend. But in the same breath Harb, who has long aspired to be president, declared that "when the opportunity arises, I will put myself at the disposal of this country." Despite the further erosion of Lahoud's authority at home, it is not going to be easy to remove him from his post if the tide turns completely against him. So far he has vowed to remain in power until the end of his tenure. His speech at the UN stressed Lebanon's commitment to cooperate fully with the UN investigation. But this did not hide the fact that a separate meeting attended by Lebanese prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora and the foreign ministers of the United States, Britain, Italy, France, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, was being held simultaneously at the world body's headquarters. The meeting was sponsored by American Secretary of State Condolezza Rice and called for holding an international conference to aid Lebanon before the end of this year. Notwithstanding international pressure to sideline Lahoud, the actual act of unseating him is a challenge. Under Article 60 of the Lebanese constitution, the president has to be guilty of violating the constitution or of high treason to be censured. Even then, he "may not be impeached except by a two-thirds majority decision of the total membership of the chamber of deputies" and there is little historical precedence for such a move. A wide consensus has to be secured among the different political alliances forming the Lebanese parliament to push an impeachment motion forward. The largest voting block, opposed to Lahoud and headed by Rafik Al-Hariri's son Saad, cannot go it alone; joining forces with Aoun's block or other MPs would be necessary. Another powerful faction to contend with is the Shiite constituency represented by Hizbullah and Parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri's Amal Party. The Shiites are unlikely to endorse any candidate blessed by the United States, especially if they are not given assurances regarding the protection of Hizbullah against the implementation of UN Resolution 1559 indirectly calling for the disarmament of the resistance group. The conflicting interest among all these Lebanese factions makes reaching consensus over the issue a formidable task. With the three top Lebanese leaders Lahoud, Berri, and Siniora back in the country this week, (Berri was on a family trip to Europe, Lahoud and Siniora in New York), the focus is now turning away from New York. Attention is now directed towards Damascus where Mehlis and his team are scheduled to interrogate Syrian officials about Al-Hariri's assassination throughout this week. The question of the presidency may fizzle as the fate and fortunes of Lahoud's Syrian allies come to the forefront, but the political futures of both are bound to become clearer following the outcome of the probe due in mid-October.
