The battle for the presidency appears to be face of the ultimate showdown between the two dominating alliances in Lebanon, writes Hicham Safieddine "The sea is in front of you and the enemy is behind you." With these battle-rousing words, Lebanese Forces head Samir Geagea addressed hundreds of thousands of participants in the rally to commemorate the anniversary of the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Al-Hariri at Martyrs' Square in downtown Beirut last week. Geagea was unequivocally referring to Syria as the enemy. But there's more. For another target for this apparent war declaration, ostensibly inspired by Tarek Ibn Ziad's famous call when invading Gibraltar, is Lebanese President Emile Lahoud. Calls to oust pro-Syrian Lahoud emerged after his term was extended in September 2004 and intensified following Hariri's death. Now, however, the anti-Syrian coalition that emerged after the assassination has launched an unprecedentedly heated campaign to unseat Lahoud. The alliance, dubbed the 14 March coalition, is composed of the Future Movement led by Hariri's son Saad, the Druze-dominated Socialist Progressive Party headed by Walid Jumblatt, and the Maronite Lebanese Forces led by Geagea. The coalition, which is the dominating force in both parliament and government, has set next 14 March as a tentative deadline to bring down the Syrian-backed president. A parliamentary petition is underway to declare the presidential post vacant following an unconstitutional extension of his term. Cabinet meetings, which have so far been held alternately at the presidential palace at Baabda and the government headquarters, will now only be held at the latter. The mass show of support at the rally on 14 February, marking the anniversary of Hariri's death, gave the 14 March coalition a surge of confidence they seem keen to capitalise on in their bid to bring the presidency into their alliance's fold. But removing Lahoud is not going to be an easy task. For one, primary contender Michael Aoun has yet to come on board. The former general who returned from exile after Syrian forces withdrew from Lebanon last April is against a street-driven campaign to oust Lahoud. "It is unacceptable for Lebanon to go back to civil war mood," he said in a recent speech in reaction to the 14 March campaign. He also warned against a street coup of constitutional institutions that would weaken the presidency. Meanwhile, Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement issued a joint declaration of understanding with Shia group Hizbullah. The new, formerly unexpected Shia-Christian axis is now pitted against the 14 March axis, and the presidency is increasingly becoming the ultimate test of who wields real power in Lebanon. Another challenge to ousting Lahoud is finding the legal means to do it in the shortest time possible. Maronite cardinal and community leader Nasrallah Sfeir, who indirectly spearheaded Christian opposition to Syrian rule in the 90s, has publicly stated that while he favours the replacement of Lahoud, he would only support it if carried out legally. He has also said that the election of a substitute prior to such a deposition would help avoid further political instability. Meanwhile, the 14 March group lacks the two-third majority in parliament to turn their vision into law, and for the moment they have to make do with wooing parliamentarians from other blocs if they wish to have the legislative upper hand. They also have to come up with a viable candidate that could both muster the approval of a wide section of society and wrest the consent of the different political factions in the country. Prominent anti-Syrian Christian leaders such as veteran politicians Naseeb Lahoud and Boutros Harb lack the popularity of Aoun, and are unlikely to be chosen based on a national consensus. The brewing battle for the presidency comes amid a call for roundtable discussions by House Speaker Nabih Berri. The dialogue, which is expected to include all the major parties and groups across the political spectrum, is scheduled to commence in the first week of March and involve the top echelon of all participating parties. It is unclear how the dialogue will progress amid the escalating war of words on the public and private political stages. What may be more certain at this point is that the battle for power in Lebanon is unlikely to remain as peaceful as it is now. Concerns are on the rise among many Lebanese that the trials and tribulations of the past year are not going away any time soon, but rather that, perhaps, this is only the beginning.
