The assassination of Samir Kassir exposes the fragility of Lebanon's security as the country continues its four-stage elections, reports Omayma Abdel-Latif from Beirut The third round of Lebanese elections takes place on Sunday in the fiercely contested Babda-Alye constituency. Indeed, the poll has already been dubbed the battle of the mountain. The vote takes place against a backdrop of escalating political tension following the 2 June assassination of Samir Kassir in a car bomb. The murder of the leading journalist and writer dashed what few hopes remained for a smooth transition following Syria's decades-long heavy-handed presence in Lebanon, sounding a death-knell over claims that the electoral process would ease tensions which soared to unprecedented levels following the death of former Prime Minister Rafiq Al-Hariri in a car bombing last February. The assassination of Kassir, a staunch critic of Syrian rule whose articles in An-Nahar helped galvanise the opposition movement, has exposed the inability of the newly- appointed Lebanese government to maintain stability and security during the transitional period of elections. It has also raised fears that political assassinations are making a comeback as a way to eliminate opposition figures. The assassination, the first to take place since Hariri's death, underlines the fragility of the security situation in Lebanon, exposing what many commentators have called "the security vacuum" created by Syria's hasty withdrawal. "The withdrawal of troops and intelligence created loopholes within the security establishment which have now been occupied by older forces," says Ghattas Khouri, a former MP from Hariri's political bloc. The situation has been further complicated by the failure of the current transitional government to fill vacant posts within the senior ranks of the security establishment. Lebanese Interior Minister Hassan Al- Sabaa acknowledged in a press conference on Saturday that his ministry's attention had been focused on policing the polls and ensuring that the country remains safe and stable during elections, and that this has inevitably diverted attention away from other security issues. But the fact that the team examining Kassir's car following the bombing was from the FBI left the Lebanese in no doubt that the internal security of their country is now high on the international agenda. Hizbullah's Deputy Secretary-General Na'im Qasim, in a televised interview with Al-Manar TV on Monday, warned that Kassir's assassination had opened the door for the comeback of political assassinations and disclosed that Hizbullah had been tipped-off about a hit list which includes Walid Junblatt, Patriarch Mar Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir, head of the Maronite Church, alongside several Hizbullah members. The Lebanese opposition was quick to accuse what it describes as the Syrian-Lebanese security apparatus of responsibility for the assassination. They also renewed calls for the resignation of Lebanese President Emile Lahoud, whom they hold responsible for the practices of the security apparatus, and for the heads of security departments to resign. The demands, which were among the opposition's list of priorities during what came to be known as the independence uprising ( Intifadat Al-Istiqlal ), are unlikely to coincide with the priorities of those international powers taking the closest interest in Lebanon. "There was an implicit agreement that elections should be prioritised and that the restructuring of the security apparatuses and the fate of Lahoud should be left until after the elections," said Samir Abdel- Malak, a member of Qernet Shehwan, the Christian opposition bloc. But Kassir's killing, he continued, had forced the opposition to reorder its priorities, which might bring it into conflict with France and the US, the two dominant foreign players on the Lebanese scene. That potential conflict could well explain Tuesday's visit to Paris by Walid Junblatt, head of the Socialist Progressive Party and the architect of most of the opposition alliances. However much Kassir's assassination may have angered domestic Lebanese opinion, it is unlikely to force a reordering of the international agenda, which will continue to insist that the next two stages of elections are completed as scheduled. In Beirut Western diplomats privately criticise the opposition for failing to come up with a coherent plan to replace existing political and security structures. The assassination of Kassir, who was a member of the Democratic Left movement and a prominent opposition figure, has also deepened the rift between Michel Aoun, head of the Free Patriotic Movement, and the Hariri-Junblatt-Qernet Shehwan alliance. This is likely to be reflected in Sunday's third round of elections as both parties prepare for a decisive electoral battle in Babda-Alye. The final composition of Lebanon's newly-elected Assembly will be clear in less than two weeks. But whatever the make-up of the alliances that achieve a majority in the new parliament, one thing is clear. Determining the direction Lebanon takes next will be the most difficult task the country has faced since the end of the civil war. (see p.7)
