Reform is the only option both for the regime and the opposition, writes Ammar Ali Hassan* Egypt is at a crossroads. Ever since reform has become an integral part of the national agenda, the country has been seething with emotion. So far, the move towards reform has been obstructed by those who benefit from political stagnation. But the forces of change, at home and abroad, are determined to see things through. The story of democratisation in this country goes back to 1976, when President Anwar El-Sadat encouraged the formation of what he called "political forums" -- a loose formula from which political parties soon emerged. These parties proceeded to create their own newspapers, which in Hosni Mubarak's time became remarkably outspoken on matters such as corruption and the abuse of power. In February 2005, President Mubarak introduced multi-candidate presidential elections, but soon afterwards legislators endorsed conditions that made candidacy for the presidency inaccessible to most citizens. Nominally, however, civilians were given a chance to run the country, which is a step forward. As prospects for the bequest of power became more remote, Egypt's once stagnant political pond saw ripples coursing across its surface. Opposition parties began looking forward, searching for a role to play in the country's public scene, and the oligarchic propensities of the system became more subdued. President Mubarak, now running for a fifth term, has promised more political and constitutional reform. Specifically, he pledged to abolish infamous emergency laws that have been in force since 1981. Many would say that this is mere window dressing; that the regime is buying time, introducing cosmetic changes to calm its domestic and foreign critics. Those close to the regime deny the charge, claiming that democracy comes in many forms and that its pace should be determined according to the circumstances of the country. Supporters of the regime tend to cite the shortcomings of Western democracy, often hinting that democratisation is just a US ploy, a tactic to control the region. The Egyptian opposition has gained some experience from its turbulent past. More than ever, it seems able to stand its ground against the regime. The opposition may soon prove that it is more flexible in terms of ideas and tactics than many think. A few years ago, it was unthinkable for communists, Islamists and liberals to act in unison. Now, the public is no longer astonished to see various strands of the opposition fighting for common goals and defending each other in the process. Kifaya (the Egyptian Movement for Change) has brought together people from across the political spectrum. And the Muslim Brotherhood, in alliance with secular opponents of the regime, has managed to launch the Alliance for Reform and Change. The three main opposition parties (Al-Wafd, Al-Tagammu and the Nasserist) all boycotted the referendum on the amendment of Article 76 of the constitution. At one point at least, the three agreed to boycott the presidential elections. Such alliances impart vitality and fluidity on the political scene. In two recent incidents -- the murder of the Egyptian envoy to Iraq and the bombings in Sharm El-Sheikh -- the opposition distanced itself from the government. The opposition linked both incidents with government policies and proposed an alternative course that would reduce the threat of terror. In the past, the government used to dither on legal and political reform, claiming that reform may hamper its fight against terrorism. This line of argument has been discredited. Critics of the government maintain that repression breeds violence, and that the fight against terror begins with democratisation. In all likelihood, the Egyptian elite will keep fighting for reform and challenging the regime every step of the way. The amendment of a sole article of the constitution has fallen short of the nation's expectations. Critics of the government are going to continue pressing for a new constitution and for restrictions on the powers of the president. Reform is a multi-faceted task. It involves guarantees for free and fair parliamentary elections, a standing judicial committee to supervise elections and referendums, new voters' lists, abolition of the state of emergency, the release of political prisoners, observance of human rights, freedom to form parties, and the reinstitution of the right to assemble and demonstrate. The ruling National Democratic Party must cede its control over the state's media, security services and administrative apparatus. Labour unions and NGOs must be fully independent from the state. The right of all Egyptians to own mass media should be restored. Soon, the radio and television law must be amended to ensure their independence from the government. It is hard to predict a timeframe for reform. But it is safe to assume that the opposition would continue, through demonstrations and various types of civil disobedience, to make its voice heard. Should irregularities take place in the course of the upcoming legislative elections, serious clashes might occur. So far, the bulk of the Egyptian public has stood on the sidelines and watched. Should the public decide to take to the streets, a whole new ball game would emerge. One cannot rule out a period of instability lasting for a few years unless, of course, the government introduces major reforms. Pessimists are already pointing out that the only way to reform the regime is to remove it. * The writer is a political analyst.
