Claiming that cruise missiles were not covered by confidence-building agreements, Islamabad tests a new missile without informing India, reports Iffat Idris On Thursday 11 August, Pakistan test-fired its first cruise missile. While Pakistani leaders rejoiced at the country's latest military advancement, others viewed the move with concern. Pakistani scientists developed the Babur missile indigenously. It has a range of 500 kilometres (310 miles) and can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads. Army spokesman Major General Shaukat Sultan said the successful fire test had put Pakistan alongside the few countries "that can design and make cruise missiles". The Babur joins Pakistan's existing arsenal of short-range, intermediate and long-range nuclear and conventional missiles, which includes the Shaheen-I with a range of 600 kilometres, the Shaheen-II with a range of 2,000 kilometres (meaning it can reach anywhere in India), the Ghauri-I and Ghauri-II with ranges of 1,500 kilometres and 2,300 kilometres respectively, and the short-range (100-290 kilometres) Hatf series. The advantage that Babur has over these other missile systems is that, as a low-flying cruise missile, it can hug the terrain and slip undetected through almost any protective radar system. The other advantage of the Babur cruise missile is that it can be moved around the country easily and virtually undetected, as opposed to ballistic missiles, which are easily detected. Why would Pakistan want a cruise missile? The answer lies in neighbouring India. Pakistan has, for its entire history, been engaged in a struggle to build up its military capability so it can thwart an attack from India. India is seen as a constant threat, and all in Pakistan agree on the need to develop mechanisms to counter that threat. This is easier said than done, however, since bigger and more resource-rich India enjoys considerable advantages over Pakistan. In conventional forces, India is far ahead: Indian armed forces number 1,325,000 compared to Pakistan's 620,000; India has 29 surface warships compared to Pakistan's eight; 19 submarines compared to Pakistan's 10; Indian military expenditure in 2002 was $13.8 billion, dwarfing Pakistan's $2.7 billion. It should be underlined that unlike Pakistan, where the predominant target of military efforts is India, Indian military efforts are motivated by wider concerns and ambitions. India sees itself as a regional and global power: as such, apart from viewing mighty China as a rival, it feels it should have military strength commensurate with its aspirations. Returning to Pakistan, the massive -- and unbridgeable -- conventional imbalance between Pakistan and India was what drove Pakistan to develop its nuclear weapons deterrent. Islamabad tested nuclear weapons in May 1998, following Indian nuclear tests. It is also what is driving its push for longer- range ballistic missiles. In recent years Pakistan has been greatly alarmed by Indian defence purchases, which include increasingly sophisticated anti-ballistic defence systems such as Patriot surface-to-air missiles. The development of cruise missiles should be seen as an attempt by Pakistan to keep the potency of its nuclear deterrent alive. President Pervez Musharraf described the Babur as "a major milestone in Pakistan's quest for strengthening and consolidating the country's strategic capability". The Babur test should also be seen in the context of Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's recent, and very successful, visit to the United States. India and the US signed a 10- year defence cooperation pact and -- of more concern to Islamabad -- an accord for cooperation on civilian nuclear technology. Subject to ratification by Congress, India will now be able to access American nuclear technology for civilian use, as well as import materials for this. The agreement lifts US curbs on technology transfer imposed on India after the 1998 nuclear weapons tests. Little wonder that Pakistan, for whom the curbs remain in place, fears falling even further behind India militarily. Speaking at a Corps Commanders Conference, President Musharraf said: "The successful test of cruise missile Babur manifests Pakistan's resolve to maintain the balance of power which is essential to stability and peace in the region." Ironically, the Babur fire test comes less than one week after India and Pakistan agreed to a number of nuclear and conventional weapons "confidence-building measures". The peace process between India and Pakistan, formally initiated in January 2004 by President Musharraf and then Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, covers eight areas, one of which is confidence-building measures. To date three rounds of talks have been held on confidence-building measures -- in June and December 2004, and most recently in August 2005. In the June round, the two sides renewed a ban on nuclear tests and set up a hotline to alert each other to potential nuclear risks. The December talks stumbled on the issue of pre-notification, but this was resolved in August, leading to an agreement to inform each other before conducting missile tests. Pakistan did not inform India before carrying out the Babur test, because cruise missiles are not included in the pre- notification agreement. The leading English daily in Pakistan, Dawn, noted in its editorial: "This may be the technically correct position, but in view of the improving climate of goodwill, it might be a good idea to have all missiles included in the agreement. This will lessen suspicion and avoid bad blood." India has not so far commented on the Babur test, but this has not stopped people speculating about its impact on the Indo-Pak peace process. One Indian commentator noted that while cruise missiles fell outside the recent Indo-Pak agreement, "negotiations are a matter of trust, a matter of ambiance and feeling, and confidence building, and this is definitely likely to dent confidence on both sides." Pakistan's Information Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed, however, denied that the test would damage relations with India: "We have good terms, we have business terms with India, and we have a good peace process... But as far as our defence is concerned, we can't forget our responsibilities, and this is one of the new layers of our defence strategy." The consensus seems to be that the test will probably cause a short-term setback to the peace process, but no long-term damage. The wider concern felt by the international community is that the cruise missile test marks the latest round of a dangerous arms race between India and Pakistan. Both countries have nuclear weapons, and now cruise missiles, but their command-and-control structures are far from perfect. Neither, for example, has the technology to call back a nuclear weapon sent off in error. These concerns are matched by fears about the vast resources spent by each country on weaponry -- resources that are badly needed for development. India and Pakistan might be members of the exclusive nuclear weapons and cruise missile clubs, but on human development indicators they both appear at the bottom of world league tables. Before rejoicing over Babur, Pakistan's leaders might want to consider that grim fact.
