It has not been a good week for Pakistan, and particularly not for its President Pervez Musharraf, reports Iffat Idris from Islamabad The week started with the country still reeling from an attempt on the president's life, and with continuing controversy over Pakistan's nuclear scientists. It continued with the announcement of an agreement in the long-running political/ constitutional dispute between the government and the opposition Islamist parties. But both the nuclear and political stories were dramatically eclipsed on Christmas Day with the second, much closer and bloodier, attempt to assassinate Musharraf. Pakistan's nuclear weapons programme has been controversial from day one. The programme was developed secretly, and only acknowledged before the world in May 1998, when Pakistan carried out nuclear tests in response to India's. Since then, the concern of the international community has focussed on freezing Pakistan's programme and, perhaps more importantly, ensuring that Pakistan does not transfer nuclear technology to other states. The so-called "rogue states" of Iran, North Korea and Libya have been of especial concern to the United States. Pakistan's government has always denied involvement in proliferation activities. But earlier this year the United States imposed restrictions on Khan Research Laboratories, one of the two principal nuclear technology facilities in Pakistan. The KRL facility is named after Dr Abdul-Qadeer Khan, the "father of the Pakistani bomb". Now retired, Dr Khan played a huge role in the development of Pakistan's nuclear weapons -- particularly in acquiring the crucial uranium enrichment technology. Critics of the Pakistani programme point to the similarities between its Ghauri missiles (on which weapons are carried) and the North Korean Nodong missiles. The automatic question that follows is what Pakistan gave North Korea in return for missile technology? Concerns over technology transfers from Pakistan have escalated following reports from Iran and from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which suggest that Pakistani scientists could have been engaged in such activities. The Pakistan government is persisting with vehement denials of state-supported technology transfer, but it is now conceding the possibility of individual scientists "selling" technology for personal gain. In recent weeks two senior figures from KRL were held for what the authorities described as "debriefing". One has still not been released. Dr Khan has also been questioned. Dr Khan's family and supporters accuse the authorities of making the scientists scapegoats to appease international critics. They point to the massive security that surrounds Pakistan's nuclear scientists at all times, and the impossibility of their interacting with Iran or North Korea without the knowledge of senior army officers. The nuclear controversy was still running in Pakistan, when the government announced a breakthrough on another front. Ever since elections to the National and Provincial Assemblies in October 2002, legislative activity has been blocked by the bitter dispute between the president and the Jamali government on one side, and the Islamist alliance MMA and other opposition parties on the other. The MMA object to the powers assumed by the president through the Legal Framework Order (LFO), to his election through a referendum and to his retention of the chief of army staff position. Their argument has always been that Musharraf cannot be both president and army chief. Negotiations between the government and MMA to reach a deal constantly floundered. But with the MMA threatening a mass protest campaign for the New Year, the two sides have finally reached a mutually acceptable compromise. A constitutional amendment package placed before parliament on 26 December addresses the concerns of the MMA. The president will not, for example, be able to dismiss parliament but can only refer this to the Supreme Court. President Musharraf also announced on national television that he would be stepping out of military uniform by the end of December 2004. In return, the MMA will not oppose a vote of confidence in the president to be held in the assemblies on 2 January. Resolving the political dispute with the opposition and securing domestic legitimacy is particularly important to Musharraf because the SAARC Heads of State Summit starts in Islamabad on 4 January. The president does not want to share the limelight with protesters accusing him of being undemocratic. The deal with the MMA could also pave the way for Pakistan's return to the Commonwealth, from which it has been suspended since 1999. But if Musharraf can face the SAARC Summit free of political hassle, the same cannot be said on the security front. Christmas Day saw a devastating attempt on the president's life. As his convoy was returning to his Rawalpindi residence from an OIC Ministerial meeting in Islamabad, it was hit by two vehicles with suicide bombers. The presidential car was not hit (its windscreen was damaged by the blasts) but others were not so lucky. Thirteen people (15, including the two suicide bombers) were killed and some 50 injured in the two explosions. President Musharraf appeared on national television a few hours later to assure Pakistanis that he was unharmed. He blamed Islamic militants for the attack but said it had made him "even more determined to cleanse the country of extremists". Though unsuccessful, the suicide bombings have caused massive concern about presidential security -- particularly in view of the bomb attack on the presidential convoy that took place just 11 days earlier. While some question the effectiveness of security around the president, others point to the determination shown in the suicide bombings. If a group is so determined to get the president, it could be only a matter of time before they succeed. It is not difficult to see why Islamic extremists would want the president dead. Since assuming power in 1999 he has launched a campaign to eradicate religious (especially sectarian) violence; he sided with the US-led war against terror in Afghanistan (dumping the Taliban in the process); he has stopped support to Kashmiri militant groups fighting in Indian Kashmir; he has floated the possibilities of recognising Israel and sending Pakistani troops to Iraq; and in his most recent announcement, he said Pakistan could abandon UN resolutions on Kashmir. Implementation of those resolutions, which call for a plebiscite to decide the future of the state, has long been the Holy Grail of Pakistani foreign policy. Little wonder the Islamists are angry with Musharraf. The security scare could not have come at a worse time. Prime Minister Vajpayee arrives in Pakistan on 3 January for the SAARC Summit. The Pakistani authorities know how catastrophic any such attack on the Indian prime minister would be. Security around the conference is unprecedented, but the authorities will undoubtedly heave a huge sigh of relief if it passes off unscathed. Security concerns have to some extent distracted attention from the original significance of the SAARC Summit: the possibility of bilateral dialogue between Musharraf and Vajpayee to resolve the Kashmir dispute. So far, the SAARC agenda does not include any such bilateral meetings. But analysts will still be watching closely for progress on the bilateral relationship. It will certainly be an interesting few days -- for more reasons than one.
