A US strike against Iraq seems imminent, but who's next? Galal Nassar argues it will be Iran The Middle East is on tenterhooks as it awaits the outcome of Washington's recent diplomatic moves in the region. The question on everyone's lips is where and when the US is going to strike next in its all-out war to eradicate sources of 'terrorism'. Certain powers are actively lobbying the US military machine against countries that they feel threaten their national security. Among these is Israel, which has pinpointed Iran as a direct threat to its stability and regional aims. Israeli lobbying seems to have paid off, with the Bush administration declaring Iran a part of its 'axis of evil' after 11 September. With its vast cultural heritage, economic, military and human resource potential, and its strategic location, Iran is a regional power of considerable weight. As such, an examination of Israel's role in influencing the Iranian-US relationship, raises three important points. The first is Tehran's open support for Hizbullah, a fact that Israel's media highlighted whenever the Lebanese movement launched operations against Israeli-occupied Lebanon. The second is the allegation that Iran offers material support to armed Palestinian groups in the occupied territories. Israelis point to the Karine-A arms ship incident as evidence for this. Third, Israel seeks to fuel US fears over Iran's military and nuclear power. Two months ago an Israeli delegation, headed by Minister of Defence Benyamin Ben-Eliezer, went to Washington to persuade officials there of the increasing threat Iran poses to Israeli and US interests. Washington also has its own reasons for going on the warpath against Tehran. Iranian and US interests have tended to clash since the overthrow of the Shah in 1979 and the attempts of the new regime to export Islamic revolution to neighbouring countries. More recently, in Central Asia, Iran has pursued policies independent of Washington's prescriptions for the region. The latest conflictual episode occurred before 11 September, when Iran mobilised naval and air forces in the Caspian Sea, compelling US oil companies to leave what it claimed to be its territorial waters. Washington is also worried about Iran's influence in regions where Shi'ite Muslims are a majority. During the buildup to the war against Afghanistan, Iran, like other nations of the region, was coerced into supporting the international coalition, albeit on face-saving conditions. But, as US-led military operations progressed and efforts took place to form an interim government in Kabul, Iranian and US interests clashed. Just as Washington's perception of its strategic interests in the Indian subcontinent and Central Asia govern its handling of the India-Pakistan conflict, so too does it militate eliminating or neutralising the current regime in Tehran. The accusations emanating from Washington and Tel Aviv, on the one hand, and Tehran, on the other, indicate an escalation of tensions. However, it remains to be seen whether Washington will use economic measures or rely on military muscle to deal with Iran. President Bush has cautioned Iranian officials against attempting to upset the stability of Afghanistan or giving Taliban and Al-Qa'eda members refuge in their country. Tehran rejected what it referred to as Bush's "observations", which it claimed were groundless. As with other nations, Bush has cautioned Iran that there can be no neutrality in the war against terrorism. "Either you're with us or against us," he told Tehran while attempting to create his international coalition against terrorism. Iranian sources claim a link exists between escalating US anti-Iranian rhetoric and Israeli diplomatic moves. They are particularly suspicious of the recent visit of Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres to India, which raised fears in Tehran over Israeli-Indian cooperation and during which the Israeli prime minister issued statements described by Iran as provocative. Moreover, Israeli officials have timed their anti-Iran campaign to coincide with the publication of the US Intelligence Association's annual report, which lists Iran as a direct threat to US interests and national security. The report warned that the US could be vulnerable to a ballistic missile attack from North Korea, Iran or Iraq within the next 15 years and that China's nuclear warhead arsenal would increase five-fold during this period. It also maintained that Iran would possess a nuclear arms capacity by 2010. The report also addressed the potential threat of Iran to Israeli security, which the US is pledged to defend. It stated that, "Iran seeks to develop the Shahab-3 missile, which has a range of 1,300 kilometres for possible use against Israel in the event of a war in the region." Iran's successful testing of this missile has stirred alarm in Israel. Indeed, the Iranian ballistics programme has been progressing much faster than Israeli experts had predicted. In the course of the subsequent media campaign focusing on Iranian threats to Israeli security, Shimon Peres said, "Israel is very worried over the success of Iran's recent test of the Shahab-3 missile. Iran is preparing to develop a weapon with a range of 10,000 kilometres, which is all the more alarming at a time of decreasing popularity of liberal elements in Iran." At the same time, rumours were leaked that Israeli military leaders were studying the possibility of mounting a "preemptive" operation in the manner of the strike against the Iraqi nuclear reactor in Baghdad in 1981. The 17-metre long, 15-ton Shahab-3 is capable of carrying a non-conventional warhead over more than 1,300 km, which is to say that it can strike anywhere inside Israel. The missile is an important step in the project to develop the Shahab-4, with a range of 2,000 kilometres. Israel in response is hastening to complete its anti- ballistic missile programme. Although it has deployed large numbers of anti-ballistic Arrow missiles in central Israel, it has yet to develop the capacity to defend the north and the south of the country. Four years ago, the Israeli Ministry of Defense obtained an allocation of $160 million from the US Congress to construct an Arrow missile base in the south, however, work on the project is still incomplete. Nevertheless, according to military sources, the Israeli aeronautics industry began work two years ago on developing missiles to enable them to intercept multi-warhead surface to surface missiles. The sources report that Israel is currently preparing another test of the Arrow missile in the coming months and that they will be tested again in the US late next year. The Arrow, along with the US-made Patriot missile, is integral to the Homa (Wall) defence system, which also consists of a network of satellite, airborne and ground-based early warning devices. The US has also licensed Israel to produce Patriot missiles on the condition that it will not market them without Washington's approval. The information gleaned from the development of this missile will be useful in the development of the gigantic THAAD, a heat-guided antiballistic missile that, at a speed of 3 miles per second, will be able to hit all known medium- range missiles. The Homa project envisions the production of 240 THAAD missiles. In a speech to the Israeli Peace and Security Council, Ben-Eliezer said, "The gradual transition from a traditional weapons threat to a nuclear threat has become an alarming reality. The nuclear capacities of Iran in 2005 will pose a threat to us, the region and the entire world." He added, "Iran is steadfastly supporting terrorist organisations and will augment its support for them once it obtains a nuclear capacity." In addition, during his visit to Washington, the Israeli minister of defence sought to persuade the US administration and public of the need to strike Iran and specifically its nuclear reactor. More ominous, however, are the perceptions of Ariel Sharon who has said to his military chiefs of staff: "Iran has spread its influence throughout the region, which has created a fundamental change in our strategic situation." He claimed that Iran was acting on three "fronts". The first was Hizbullah, which it supplied with 8,000 Katusha missiles. The second was the PA, which it was arming, as demonstrated by the Karine-A arms ship. The third was via Arab citizens of Israel among whom, he said, Israeli security agencies had detected an Iranian infiltration, although the Israeli prime minister offered no further details on that allegation. Sharon's Iranian fears have manifested themselves in Israeli defence planning. On becoming chief of Israeli military intelligence, General Haroun Raifi, began drawing up alternative scenarios for a "surgical" strike against Iranian nuclear reactors and medium-range missile plants. Detailed maps were prepared depicting such sites as the Bushehr reactor on the Persian Gulf. The Russian- made reactor, due for completion in 2005, is designed for electricity generation and water purification. To the east in Kum Maleksiam, near the border with Afghanistan, are the mines of Saghand in which experiments on uranium are thought to be conducted. Also pinpointed on the map are the 12-megawatt reactor built by the Shah and upgraded by the US in 1974, a Chinese-made uranium reactor for research in Banya Kargo, west of Tehran, and the 40 megawatt Chinese-supplied Moailem Kalayeh nuclear reactor northwest of Tehran. Moailem Kalayeh is the most up-to-date and fully equipped installation in the Iranian nuclear energy development programme. Also in Israeli cross hairs is the large Gorgan project in Mazandaran province. Indeed, confidential reports reveal that Israeli pilots are currently in central Anatolia training in case plans to bombard Iranian nuclear reactors and missiles bases are implemented. Increased flights over the Turkish-Iranian border have also been reported. The reports suggest that one of Israel's objectives in its military cooperation with Turkey is to obtain permission to use Turkish air bases for assaults against Iranian targets. Already the Israeli-Turkish agreement allows for eight Israeli war planes to be stationed permanently on Turkish territory. Operation Babel-2, the code name for the Israeli offensive to destroy Iranian missile plants and storehouses, will go into effect if the US 'diplomatic deterrent' fails, according to the report. Iranian military authorities are currently studying two scenarios, the first is a possible Israeli bombardment of missile plants in Shiraz, Khorramabad, Farahin and Shahman, the second involves targeting foreign experts working on the missile and nuclear development programmes. The authorities believe that Israel procured 45 F-15s, capable of flying distances of over 1,500 kilometres and returning to base without refueling, expressly to carry out raids against Iran. Consequently, Iranian authorities have been taking precautions to ensure that their facilities are protected. Measures include, dispersing laboratories and facilities to diverse parts of the country. Iranian officials also fear that a traditional war in the region could easily escalate into a nuclear war in which the US and Israel would seek to use small tactical atomic bombs. Tehran is contemplating a possible counter strike. Iran has obtained highly detailed Russian satellite pictures pinpointing the locations of Israeli missile silos. Apparently, Israel's main silo is located 20 km west of Jerusalem near the Tel Nouf air base. The silo, which is surrounded by caves and fortified bunkers, is located to the south of missile manufacturing plants at Bir Ya'qub. Tehran has also deployed Shahab missiles to target other Israeli installations, such as the Zakheriya base southeast of Tel Aviv, which houses long-range missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. The satellite photographs indicate that the missiles are not stored in fortified shelters that could withstand a nuclear attack. Unlike their Israeli counterparts the Iranian missile shelters are fortified against attacks. Tehran has further warned Israel and the US that, in the event of an attack, it would counter, using suicide bombers in speed-boats, to attack US ships stationed in the Gulf. It also threatened to mine the Hormuz Straits, halting international shipping in the Persian Gulf, and to mount terrorist strikes against US interests in the Middle East and elsewhere. The common feeling among Iranians is that they are surrounded on all sides, with NATO- allied Turkey to the northwest, US bases in Uzbekistan to the northeast, US forces in Afghanistan, US bases in Pakistan, and the US navy in the Gulf and Indian Ocean. All that remains is for Washington to succeed in toppling Saddam Hussein, install a pro-US regime in Iraq, and the encirclement will be complete.
