While the international process of demonising Damascus continues at full speed, the Syrians have no option but to strike a deal. But, Sherine Bahaa investigates, at what cost? Every time a bomb has exploded in Lebanon over recent months, all fingers have pointed at Syria, while definitions of the various victims have centred around their anti-Syrian stance. In Iraq, the occupation forces describe many of the active resistance groups as infiltrators entering the country from across the long Syrian- Iraqi borders. Palestinian factions in Lebanon are, again according to Washington, reportedly armed through tunnels leading up to Syria. To top the accusations off, Lebanese resistance group of Hizbullah is depicted as a mere extension of Syrian power into Lebanese soil. This entire process all boils down to the implementation of a single, unified policy: put more pressure on Syria in order to tame it. And the deadline by which Syria's fate within the context of international politics will be decided is, so far, 25 October. For it is on that date that German Prosecutor Detlev Mehlis, who heads the United Nations Investigation Committee into the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri, is set to release his final report. According to observers and analysts, looking ahead, the report will definitely include allegations against senior Syrian officials, though not necessarily against the highest echelons of power in Damascus. "It is impossible after so much escalation for Syria to come out innocent. Syria is going to be incriminated one way or another," one Syrian observer told Al-Ahram Weekly on condition of anonymity. But even such an eventuality will certainly require some kind of response from the Syrian side. Should the Syrians accept the report's content and present any alleged suspects for trial, Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad will be able to make it out as though he acted out of his own will, and the whole story will then most likely be shelved as history. But acceptance or rejection has been regarded as a matter of national pride rather than as a technical problem relating to truth, however. Still, Damascus is trapped: either it stays as tight-lipped as it has done so far and saves its pride, or it faces the potentially dire consequences of diplomatic isolation. Indeed, Al-Assad's regime is already well aware that it has to think twice before taking this crucial decision. The report -- depending on the nature of whose content Damascus will have to base its decision -- is expected either to put an end to the pressure or else will launch a new chapter involving even more aggressive penalties, potentially ranging from economic sanctions, to freezing of assets to that of an ultimately destructive military strike. The first warning of danger came this week from Cairo from United States official David Welch, who told reporters that this month's release of the UN report will likely prove to be an occasion for the world to send a signal to Syria about its "misbehaviour". "Our worries are not just with respect to the situation in Iraq but also with respect to Syrian interference in Lebanon and its renewed interference in the situation of the Palestinians and the Israelis," said Welch, who is the US assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs. "These are very, very difficult issues, and we would ask the Syrian government not to interfere in such matters. It appears they are not listening and it seems that this behaviour is not changing," he said following talks with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. The straining of relations between Washington and Damascus is not a new phenomenon. In fact it goes back to the late 1990s when the so- called broader Middle East initiative was first launched, and a geopolitical re-mapping of the region became the essence of a new grand US design. "This was requested by a number of senior US officials but the Syrian regime did not take it seriously and eventually Syrians were left alone and became the only state left out of this strategic plan," renowned Baathist Ayman Abdel-Nour told the Weekly. But recently the noose has been getting even tighter. "Throughout the past year we have not had any visitors and Syrian officials have not been travelling abroad. The president did not go to attend the UN General Assembly. This is all part of the plot against Syria," he said. Many Syrians fear, however, that a worse scenario could be in the making if the regime further exacerbates its isolation, for they would not accept a regime that simply closes the country's doors to the world. In this regard, things are already bad enough as they stand. Syrian businessmen in the US are not allowed to invest or transfer any of their capital to Damascus, and this is adversely affecting the country's economy. Thus, pressure on Syria is moving in two parallel directions. As stated by some US officials, it is intended "to lean or else to break" Damascus. In other words, either the Syrian regime caves in the US demands or else the whole system collapses. But to be fair should the regime indeed cave in, the consequences would be far more detrimental to the Syrians than they could ever be to Washington -- and the Syrians know that. Even in terms of its relations with its neighbours Syria is already up against a tough situation. Saudi Arabia, which constitutes Syria's most important Arab ally, is very upset with the alleged Syrian role in the assassination of Al-Hariri, and any attempts at mediation from Damascus have so far failed. The Egyptians, for their part, are trying to break the iron wall around Syria, but so far nothing concrete has appeared on the horizon. One observer told the Weekly on condition of anonymity that Al-Assad's regime has reached its end phase, adding that even if it manages to hang on to power for a few months or years, it is doomed. Even on the domestic front the regime seems to have lost the confidence and support of many of Syria's people and elite. "The Syrians are very much injured for having left Lebanon in this humiliating way. Syria got nothing out of these acts. Why would Syria -- under all the pressure it is facing -- expose itself to more intimidation by killing people like Samir Kassir and George Hawi," he said. Moreover, the Syrian were not happy with the very notion of being placed under international investigation, a process which they regarded as deeply infringing upon their national sovereignty. But will these feelings of resentment and bitterness live on when political alternatives emerge as ever more unattractive? "If the regime falls, there will be chaos and a risk of disintegration," the Syrian analyst said. Already, over recent months, petty local disagreements and political uneasiness have developed into ethnic-sectarian disturbances. Another potential result of this political process is that of a military coup. And although this scenario remains very unlikely, leaks of such a move have, suspiciously enough, regularly featured lately in the Israeli and American media. And, supposing the regime does indeed collapse, who is to succeed Al-Assad? The European Union and the US alike have strong interests relative to potential change in Damascus, and their focus can only be heightened if such change comes about without involving anarchy or state failure. "Change should come from within, but thinking of viable options brings Islamic fundamentalism to mind as the only coherent opposition force which can compete with the regime. This in itself would constitute a new nightmare for the West," said the Syrian analyst.
