Ariel Sharon has forged a new party and a new creed to pursue an old political ambition -- the exclusion of the Palestinians, writes Graham Usher Ten days after he decided to dump Likud in favour of "a new, national liberal party" at the centre of Israeli politics, Ariel Sharon's gamble appears to be paying off. Polls not only show his Kadima ("onward" or "forward") Party defeating all comers as Israel's majority bloc in the general elections set for 28 March 2006; it is also attracting a steady haemorrhage of followers from Israel's established Likud and Labour parties. To cap it all, Sharon has received accolades from regional leaders like Egypt's President Mubarak. "Ariel Sharon is the only Israeli politician who can reach peace with the Palestinians," he told a Spanish newspaper on 27 November. "God willing he will succeed". Truly it is "springtime for Sharon," says Israeli analyst Robert Rosenberg. But the winter is not yet over, a fact that Sharon at least understands. For his party to be anything more than a political one-night stand Sharon needs to gravely and permanently weaken Likud and Labour. He is working assiduously to that end. So far Sharon has been able to woo 13 of Likud's 40 MPs to his new order: he seeks 20, say sources, as well as around 70 of Likud's mayors. He also needs to bleed Labour of its more moderate figures the better to paint its new chairman, Amir Peretz, as an "inexperienced" leader at the head of a far-left, "irresponsible" party. Haim Ramon was the first Labour politician to join Kadima, followed by Dalia Itzik, Labour minister in Sharon's outgoing government. Both are seen to be loyalists of former Labour leader, Shimon Peres, with analysts suggesting that their flight should be read as a harbinger of his. The perception has been reinforced by a scathing and racist attack on Peretz and his Moroccan origins by Peres' brother, Gigi. "Peretz and his people are a foreign body in the Labour Party, like General Franco and the Falangists who came from southern Spain ... and destroyed the magnificent Republic," Gigi told Israel's Army Radio on 28 November. Their "game is now entirely clear -- the One Nation (Peretz's former political party) people came from North Africa, took over (Labour) and shot them (Peres and his supporters) in the back". Shimon Peres has kept silent about his brother's tirade as well as his future choice of party. Sharon has reportedly offered him the post of "peace envoy" in any future government, an attractive deal since it allows Peres the allure of office without the hassle of joining a new party. Peretz's counter-offer is for Peres to become Labour Party "President", a meaningless title that few see Peres deigning to accept. Peres' departure from Labour is a "done deal", predicts one senior Labour Party member. His loss -- together with Ramon and Itzik -- will almost certainly hurt Peretz in the polls. But if Peretz is wounded, Likud is in freefall, with polls predicting it winning only 13 seats in the elections. Likud's problems are compounded by Sharon signalling that he would be willing to enter into a coalition with his erstwhile movement if it were headed by Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom and Defence Minister Shaul Mofaz. But he would draw the line against a Likud headed by the former Finance Minister and his ancient nemesis, Binyamin Netanyahu. Sharon's tactics here are as patent as those deployed against Peretz -- to paint Netanyahu as a far-right radical at the head of a rump Likud. It may work: Netanyahu is odds-on favourite to win the Likud primaries, scheduled now for 19 December. He is also hated by those his neo- liberal economic policies have most hurt -- Israel's poor and once Likud's vote-bank. With Likud and Labour shells of their former selves, the temptation for both will be to join Kadima in government -- precisely the grand coalition Sharon says he needs to execute his old/new platform for "peace". This was unveiled at Kadima's founding conference in West Jerusalem on 28 November. Its novel feature was Sharon's final, unequivocal abandonment of the old Likud dream of a Greater Israel stretching from the river to the sea. "We must be part of the Land of Israel in order to maintain a Jewish and democratic Israel," said Kadima leader and Justice Minister, Tzipi Livni. Its old feature was Sharon preferred replacement for the dream: a "disarmed, terror-free Palestinian state" in return for the preservation of the West Bank's main settlement blocs and Jerusalem "united" under Israel's control. The platform also called for a change in Israel's political system, with "regional elections, open primaries and direct elections for MPs and the prime minister". It is a clear move toward the "presidential", Gaullist system Sharon is now said to prefer. The Palestinian Authority's entrée into the new order is the 'roadmap' and a demand Sharon knows it cannot fulfil -- the complete disarmament of the Palestinian resistance. Instead, Sharon's future political negotiations will be with the US, first to persuade it of the merits of acceding to a Palestinian state "with provisional borders" as at least an interim solution, and then to accept the West Bank wall as Israel's irreversible eastern border. In this sense Kadima can claim another novelty, says Israeli analyst Nadav Eyal: "it is the first unilateral party in Israel".
