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Russia returns
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 08 - 12 - 2005

Russia hopes to re-kindle its traditionally strong ties with Arab countries, reports Mona Khalil from Moscow
Official statements, visits and communication taking place between Russian and high-ranking Arab counterparts indicate that their relationship is being cultivated. Enthusiasm in the Russian press clearly indicates that Moscow is attaching a certain degree of importance to affairs in the Arab region. Following the latest political developments, Russian journalists have concentrated on Iraq and Syria, considered the two of most crucial countries in the region.
During a recent visit to Moscow, Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari met Russian officials. Russia confirmed its readiness to render practical help to Iraq, including Russian-Iraqi cooperation in oil and gas industry. Russia also stated that it would be willing to provide education and training for Iraqi oil and security specialists. Efforts to expand Russian participation in the restoration of Iraq's economic and social infrastructure are also on the agenda.
According to the newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Zebari asked Russia to use its "authority" -- meaning Russia's close contacts with Damascus and Tehran -- to "encourage Iraq to reach an agreement with its neighbours as far as security is concerned". Both countries are being accused by officials in Baghdad and Washington of supporting forces that struggle against new Iraqi power.
In an exclusive interview with the newspaper, Zebari complained that Syrians were listening neither to Iraqis nor to any other country, and failed to recognise the hazards of their situation. "Moscow could alert Syria to this danger. If it comes from a friendly state perhaps the warning will be more effective," Zebari stressed. However it remains unclear whether Russia is actually willing to press on its Syrian as well as Iranian colleagues for the sake of Baghdad.
Zebari also pointed out that he did not think Washington had any plans to attack Syria from Iraq, but that there were other ways to strike Damascus. "Anyway, Syria is in a very complicated situation and we wouldn't like to make matters worse", he said. In an article entitled "Syrian march of George Bush" it was suggested that the US was actively searching for an alternative to Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad and that the only thing preventing Washington from dismissing the present Damascus regime was the present lack of an adequate successor. Moscow is clearly not in favour of changing power in Syria -- a loyal partner in different spheres, most significantly in the areas of military and technical expertise and exchange.
As Yevgeni Satanovsky, president of Russia's Institute of Middle Eastern Studies pointed out, it would be impossible to put anyone in Al-Assad's place without eliminating the Syrian regime and without commencing war in the region with absolutely unpredictable consequences. "Any actions leading to Al-Assad's dismissal would turn Syria into another Iraq," he stated. He added that Russia was as uninterested in changing regime in Syria as it was in "any further State Department experiments in the Middle East".
The intensity of the situation in Iraq -- once Moscow's close ally -- continues to worry Russian analysts. In an article published in Trud newspaper entitled "Iraq is under threat of disintegration into three unequal parts", deputy head of Russian Institute of Oriental Studies Valdimir Isayev highlighted the fact that the Kurds and Iraqi Shia (with support from neighbouring Iran) are likely to push for independent states, and that it is not clear whether the Kurds in the North or Shia in the South would share the profits of their oil resources with Iraqi Sunnis. The situation in Iraq is likely to transform into bloody inter-ethnic and inter-confessional war. Such challenges, Isayev suggested, could be dealt with exclusively by the presence of foreign troops. The Russian specialist's forecast is hardly consoling: Iraq will bring many surprises and the international community will be forced to actively interfere in order to extinguish future conflicts.
At present, Moscow is setting out to prove its status as a significant world power in two ways: firstly, by supplying its regional allies with weaponry and secondly, by developing its own sophisticated armament. Various sources have quoted high official Alexander Denisov as confirming Moscow's strict intention to continue supplying Syria and Iran with military. The business-oriented newspaper Vedomosti reported that Russia would sell Iran 29 anti-missile systems capable of hitting air- bombs and cruise missiles. The newspaper called attention to the fact that it was necessary for Iran to protect the Russian-built nuclear power plant in Busher, especially given Israel's repeated threats to conduct preventive bombings of this site.
Russia's intention to develop its own advanced armament was recently confirmed by the successful launching of a new Russian missile "Topol- M" -- the newest warhead capable of going beyond US anti-missile defence system. The "Topol-M" missile has distance of shooting 10,500 metres and very high target precision. This test-launch has demonstrated Russia's power to the world.
Apart from substantial achievements in the political arena, Russia today is extremely eager to concentrate on developing its economy. In this context, development of its commercial ties with Arabs is viewed by Moscow officials as vital. In an interview with the state-owned Rossiyskaya Gazeta, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Yakovenko focussed on trade-economic relations between Russia and the Arab world. "The volume of Russian-Arabic economic cooperation is significantly lagging behind the level of political dialogue", Yakovenko admitted. Yakovenko identified Russia's main economic partners in the region as Morocco, Egypt and Algeria, but added that trade turnover between Russia and Arab countries still failed to meet their mutual needs and capacities. Still, Yakovenko voiced confident optimism in the impulse of both parties to cooperate.
Freedom of faith
The United States State Department's report, which surveyed 197 countries, cited its top eight blacklisted countries considered violators of religious freedoms, while declining to add to the list Pakistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
The eight branded countries, described as being of "particular concern" are: Burma, China, Eritrea, Iran, North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Sudan and Vietnam.
According to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, "These are countries where governments have engaged in or tolerated particularly severe violations of religious freedom over the past years." She added that the US is "committed to seeking improvements in each of these countries".
"In some countries we find that governments have modified laws and policies, improved enforcement or taken other concrete steps to increase and demonstrate respect for religious freedom. In far too many countries, however, governments still fail to safeguards religious freedom. Across the globe, people are still persecuted or killed for practising their religion, or even for just being believers," said Rice.


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