Despite Arab mediation, Lebanese powerplayers dig in their heels deeper into the dispute, argues Nicolas Nassif Lebanon is adrift in a sea of turmoil and violence, with little hope of ever emerging in the near future. The government of Fouad Siniora is left with few options as divisions worsen in the country. Five Shiite ministers are boycotting the government without actually resigning. Without them, the cabinet is hobbled. Any action it may take is constitutionally questionable, although perfectly legal. The cabinet has the right to issue decisions with a simple or two-third majority, a quorum it still has even with the Shiite ministers declining to attend. But the constitutional preamble states that anything breaching sectarian coexistence is impermissible, which means that the cabinet cannot take effective action in the absence of the Shiites. The Shiites' boycott has the approval of top Shiite officials, Parliamentary speaker Nabih Birri and Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah. The Shiite ministers are running their ministries as usual, but boycotting cabinet meetings. This leaves the cabinet in a legal limbo, as its actions are now open to question, which is exactly what the country's Shiite leaders hope to achieve. They are holding the country hostage for the time being. Tension is palpable even in the streets. Hizbullah supporters clashed with the police on 14 January while protesting the visit to Beirut by US Assistant Secretary of State David Welch. Arab parties have tried to mediate, but their efforts have so far been less than successful. The Shiites have stuck to their guns in all matters concerning Syria. The Egyptians and Saudis have been trying to defuse tension in Lebanese-Syrian relations and heal domestic tensions in Lebanon. The Shiites were pleased to see the Arabs coming to Syria's help. But the parliamentary majority, led by Saad Al-Hariri, wasn't interested in alleviating pressure on Syria. So far, Arab mediation has failed in narrowing differences among the Lebanese. But Arab mediation has been good for Syria. Since King Abdallah acceded to the Saudi throne, he has been reluctant to meet with the Syrian president. Although the Saudis wouldn't admit it in public, they perhaps blame Al-Assad, at least indirectly, for Al-Hariri's death as well as for the wave of assassinations that has recently hit Lebanon. Due to Arab mediation, Al-Assad has been rescued from a stifling isolation in return for a pledge to cooperate unconditionally with the international commission investigating Al-Hariri's assassination. Al-Assad has thus gained the Arab backing he needed to confront US and French pressures against him. President Al-Assad met with Saudi Foreign Minister Saud Al-Faisal in Damascus on 8 January, and the two left together to Jeddah on the same day. From there, Al-Assad went straight to Sharm El-Sheikh for talks with Hosni Mubarak. The Syrian leader knew that Cairo and Jeddah were not interested in a change of regime in Damascus. Both the Egyptians and Saudis fear that the removal of the current Syrian regime would spell chaos in the country and the region. It may even encourage a takeover by the Muslim Brotherhood, Syria's best organised opposition group. In Lebanon, Hizbullah and Amal wish to see the international investigation in Al-Hariri's assassination proceed, but aren't in a mood to tolerate further accusations against the Syrian regime. The parliamentary majority, led by Saad Al-Hariri and Walid Jumblatt, for their part, blame Damascus for Al-Hariri's murder and urge a regime change in Syria. The statements former Syrian Vice President Abdel-Halim Khaddam made recently in Paris have deepened the rift, for it made the Shiites more defensive. Jumblatt has been referring to Al-Assad's government as the "sick regime" and the "criminal regime". Both Jumblatt and Saad Al-Hariri have been shocked by the cordial reception President Al-Assad got in Saudi Arabia, even though the Saudis still press for a full investigation in Al-Hariri's assassination. Saudi Ambassador to Beirut Abdel-Aziz Khoja has been in touch with Prime Minister Siniora and Hizbullah leader Nasrallah in an attempt to bring the Shiite ministers back to the cabinet, but the obstacles seem insurmountable for now. And with every passing day, there are more things for the Lebanese to quarrel about. The Shiites have asked Siniora and Saad al-Hariri to make a written statement to the effect that resolution 1559 has been implemented in what concerns Lebanon, which would amount to a pledge that Hizbullah wouldn't be disarmed. The Shiites also demanded that cabinet decisions in matters of national policy be passed by consensus, which would practically give them a veto over matters of top priority. Upon prodding from Jeddah, Siniora and Saad Al-Hariri agreed to a compromise solution. Hizbullah would still be called a "militia" but the two leaders would pledge to back the resistance. The two men promised to let cabinet decisions be made through consensus. Jumblatt rejected the compromise. As things stand, the Shiites are holding the cabinet hostage, while Saad al-Hariri, who has already succeeded in isolating President Lahoud, is looking for a way to outmanoeuvre them. It's a tug of war that isn't likely to end anytime soon.
