With no big surprises in the results of the Iraqi elections, Sunnis, Shias and Kurds seem poised for another battle, this time over a new government, writes Salah Hemeid After conducting successful elections in a country that has long been mired by factional violence, Iraqi sectarian, ethnic and political groups started this week intensive bargaining to try to create a functioning and inclusive government to run the country in the next four years. Official returns released Friday from the 15 December national elections confirmed that the coalition of Shia religious parties that dominates the outgoing government again won the biggest number of seats in the new parliament -- though not enough to govern without partners. The Shia United Iraqi Alliance took 128 of the 275 seats, according to the Independent Elections Commission. An alliance of two Kurdish parties allied with the Shias in the outgoing government won 53 seats. Sunni Arabs, who boycotted polls that elected the outgoing assembly, won 55 seats, opening the door to a larger role in government for the community at the heart of the nearly three-year-old insurgency. Former US-backed prime minister Iyad Allawi's ticket, which included prominent secular Sunnis and Shias, won only 25 seats, while the rest went to smaller religious groups. The announcement of the official results immediately kick-started hectic negotiations to form a new government that is hoped to help return the embattled nation to normality and restore the peace and stability needed to start its political and economic rebuilding. That could be a daunting task, Iraqis sharply divided on sectarian and ethnical lines but also eager to bring an end to the vicious circle of violence that has bedeviled their nation for nearly three years. Sunni Arab politicians have called for a government of national unity and signalled that they will use their increased numbers in the new National Assembly to curb the power of rival Shias, who scored the biggest number of seats in the new legislature. Leaders of the Iraqi Accordance Front, which comprises three mainly Islamist Sunni Arab groups, made clear they continue opposing federalism and will insist on curbing the trend towards sectarianism, which many Sunnis blame on policies of the outgoing government led by Shias and Kurds. In addition, Sunnis want to stop de-Baathification, the process of getting rid of the officials of Saddam Hussein's regime. They also insisted that they hold Shias and Kurds to their promise of re-negotiating the constitution, which was approved in a referendum last October but opposed by Sunni Arabs who say the document is biased because it shuts them out of much of the nation's potential oil wealth. The Sunnis are adamant that they want control of some key ministries, including the Interior Ministry that they have accused of running an anti-Sunni campaign under the pretext of combating insurgents. "No group should be side-stepped or marginalised, all should be treated as equal," said Tariq Al-Hashemi of the Iraqi Islamic Party, the largest member of the front, on Sunday. Adnan Al-Dulaimi, another front leader, said the group will "participate actively in the political process and we will cooperate with many political entities that share with us the same principles." Saleh Al-Mutlaq, a leader of a separate Sunni group that won 11 seats, pledged to work towards the formation of "a government of national unity" that would combat sectarianism. But Shia and Kurdish leaders, who will continue dominance in the next parliament, said minority Sunni Arabs must act to end the violent insurgency against US forces and the government if they want to join the political process. They also rejected the possibility of making fundamental changes to the Iraq constitution. "They cannot be in the government during the daytime and join the terrorists at night," said Kurdish interim President Jalal Talabani in an interview with Al-Arabiya television. Abdul-Aziz Hakim, the Shia leader of the Supreme Council of Islamic Revolution in Iraq, (SCIRI), insisted that the new government should be formed on the basis of the elections' results, meaning Shias should remain in the driving seat. The US, which is driving the political process, is anxious for the Kurds and majority Shias to form a cabinet that includes minority Sunnis to replace the government that they have dominated after Saddam's downfall. Washington hopes an inclusive coalition will put an end to the insurgency in Sunni Arab areas. They also hope that such a move will help the US administration to start working towards an exit strategy, in which US and other foreign troops can begin withdrawing. Privately, administration officials insist Sunni Arab leaders must act to end insurgent violence against US forces and the Shia and Kurdish-led interim government first. While it is important to press ahead quickly with forming a government, it is vital that the cabinet appointed to run Iraq for the next four years be technically competent. Under the new constitution, the interim president has only 15 days after the elections results are ratified to convene parliament, which then must choose a new president within a month. The new president designates a prime minister from the Shia bloc, who must present his cabinet to parliament for approval within a month. Shias and Kurds are three seats short of a critical two- thirds majority, so they will need more partners if they want to govern smoothly. So far, bargaining over the next government of Iraq seems to be fiercer than many have expected. But that is only natural as this is the real independent government that will be entrusted with rebuilding the devastated country and not a transitional authority like its predecessors. It was intended as a safeguard to stop any particular ethnic group from steamrolling others in the early days of Iraq's democracy. Yet, all parties realise that challenges are enormous and they need more than goodwill to break the gruesome deadlock. The main stumbling block to forming a government will be an agreement to amend the constitution -- a key Sunni demand. While Shias and Kurds -- who together account for almost 80 per cent of the Iraqi population -- will have no problem for Iraq to be run by a broad-based government, they will never agree to change the power and wealth-sharing formula, including the system of federalism. This will most certainly upset the Sunnis -- a minority of less than 20 per cent -- as they will feel totally marginalised as real power will remain, as before, with the Shias and Kurds. Still, the results of the Iraqi elections might have reflected the demographic reality but it is not yet clear how far the leading Shia and Kurdish parties intend to go in order to reach out to Sunnis and respond to their concerns. It is not clear if the Sunnis will bring to an end their armed resistance, which has so far wrecked the political process and brought the country into a bloody standstill, before they feel that they are real partners and not only representatives of a minority community.
