Hazem El-Beblawi* reflects on Egypts year of going to the polls For many Egyptians, 2005 was the election year par excellence. After a presidential election in September, legislative elections followed two months later. The whole show was presented under the banner of a new era of democracy and pluralism. The outcome, if not totally disappointing, was far below expectations. Much ink has been poured in evaluating the results of these elections and their significance. This, however, is no time for regret or recrimination. Let us be positive and look at the brighter side of the picture. First of all, though, we have to agree on the main characteristics of the elections, both presidential and parliamentary. For the presidential election, it seems that the change from a referendum to an election system proved to be immaterial. President Mubarak won the election with more than 80 per cent of the vote, much in line with what he used to achieve in previous referenda. Except for a new look, the campaign was banal more entertainment than a real contest. Perhaps the reason resides in the fact that the president took everyone, including his own party, by surprise. He first declared that amending the constitution is not on the agenda. Few days later, he submitted his proposal to amend article 76. The change caught everyone unguarded, except, of course, the incumbent himself. The parliamentary elections are a different story. Everyone knew that it was coming. But there was a change in the overall climate. It was agreed that there is a need for some transparency in the election process and more tolerance towards the Muslim Brotherhood, many of whom were released a few days before polling. The changes included the participation granted reluctantly of civil societys organisations in the electoral process, the use of glass ballot boxes and the overall supervision of judicial bodies. All this gave the whole operation a new flavour. The results of the election, while not entirely unexpected, took many people the government included by surprise. We can refer to the most salient outcomes as follows: first, the National Democratic Party (NDP), in spite of overwhelming governmental support, suffered flagrant disapproval on the part of the electorate. This was particularly obvious in the case of official candidates of the NDP. The party had to accept a humiliating readmission of previously deserted members who won the election. Second, the secular opposition parties received a no less humiliating slap from the public. Prominent figures among them lost their long-held seats. Third, perhaps, the only winner is the unauthorised party, the Muslim Brotherhood. They presented less than one third of candidates and seem to amass almost one fifth of Peoples Assembly seats. What would have happened if they had run in all constituencies? Fourth, regardless of who was running, the elections witnessed a higher level of irregularity, corruption and the use in fact abuse of money and even of brutal violence. Both the NDP and the Muslim Brotherhood shared, probably equally, responsibility for these irregularities. The police and the security forces were not always as neutral or effective as one would expect. Fifth, the rate of participation in the elections was particularly low. Only one in four took part, the majority of the population remaining aloof. With these outcomes, what conclusions ought one to draw? Perhaps the first test will be about the new amendment of article 76 of the constitution. This amendment was subject to widespread controversy and it seems that it has come to deadlock. In the new parliament, the NDP stands as the only political party eligible to present a candidate for the next presidential election. This is a serious setback for the claim that Egypts presidential elections are contested openly. Eventually, the Muslim Brotherhood, as independents, may also be able to present a candidate. This would constitute an odd situation for the NDP: facing real competition. With such a nightmare scenario imaginable, it is more than probable that article 76 of the constitution will fade into oblivion. Its fate is doomed. Regardless of article 76, the rise of Muslim Brotherhood has aroused a wave of fear of a potential takeover by militant Islamists. The Islamic tide in many places has created a mood of apprehension among substantial sections of society. This does not mean that the Muslim Brothers, if they ever won a presidential election, would necessarily establish a militant Khomeini-type regime. They actually deny this possibility, affirming that they are bound by democratic principles. But the doubt is there, and one cannot dissipate doubts simply by verbal denials. After all, fear is one of the deepest of all human instincts. Future elections are, in fact, a serious challenge to both the Muslim Brotherhood and their liberal opponents. The Muslim Brothers have to prove their sincerity and commitment to the democratic process. They need to present credentials of moderation and realism. The secular parties meanwhile have to join forces and mobilise dormant elements of society and bring them back into the political arena. They need to rediscover dynamism and to appeal to the public. Last years elections, both presidential and legislative, have the merit of having brought life back to politics. Over the last 50 years, politics had been relegated to the background. With Islamist hopes on the one side and the fears of secular forces on the other, politics is moving again to the foreground. For all its shortcomings, 2005 was a wake up call for everyone. Ballot absenteeism is very costly. Now is the time for each citizen to assume a role. People have grown up and should rise to meet their responsibilities. * The author is Senior Adviser at the Arab Monetary Fund and former Executive Secretary of ESCWA ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Be a responsible citizen. Register to vote We call on all eligible citizens to register to vote before the mid- February deadline. This will allow you to participate in the local council elections scheduled for April 2006 and in any repeat parliamentary elections that may be ordered by the courts. Simply take your identity card and a photocopy to the main police station in your district. Fill out the registration application and submit it with the photocopy of your identity card. You should be notified when your registration card is ready. Better still, check back with the police station in two or three weeks. Just do it! Your vote counts!
