Things are not looking too rosy for those determined to act as midwives for an Islamic state. Ibrahim Nawar* explains why It looks as if the history is moving backwards, as if we are suddenly in the midst of the sacred battle of Karbala. Look around you -- there are two camps, the camp of Yazid and the camp of Hussein. And you have to choose a camp. Can this really be the world we live in? It is, after all, the 21st century, when satellite and space technology have transformed our lives. But it is also a century in which failures and disappointments have beset the Arab world and the dreams of two generations have been shattered. The capitalist dream was destroyed around the middle of the 20th century, the socialist dream unravelled towards the end. Nationalism resulted in waves of migration, especially among the educated, resulting in what is described as a brain drain. The disadvantaged, who couldn't leave, watched the acquisition frenzy -- the nationalisation of the wealth of the people -- and drowned in socialism. In the absence of democracy, freedom of expression, rule of law, pluralism, transparency and accountability people resorted to mosques. The place of peace of mind, where you can completely surrender mentally and physically, became their last resort. The mosque began to replace a false political life. Bowing beneath the pressures of daily life, suffering economic, social and political woes, people found their escape in "God is Great". Stripped of hope, they have no dream of a better life so why not dream of heaven? Why not see your future in the mosque when there is no future in your daily life? People may lie, cheat, steal, commit sins, but never mind, when they meet God they will be forgiven -- as long as they pray five times a day. They leave their workplaces unattended, though they make their living and feed their children from their work, but that doesn't matter for they are after a greater reward. Their work can go to hell. People have become selfish and are driven by selfish gains. Any sense of community has been lost and for many the purpose of life is to maximise personal gains. One factor that has fed into this regressive history is oil money. Wealth accrued from oil involves no work, no innovation, no competition, no productivity. It has brought power to people who think that the sole purpose of their existence is to spread their own understanding of religion. In Saudi Arabia Wahhabis believe that there is only one Islam and it is Wahhabism. Any other interpretation of Islam is not Islam. Ultra orthodox Wahhabi groups are very active in propagating their views -- they fund conservative religious schools, buy into clerical institutions -- by paying clerics -- and promote extremism among the young. They funded the Afghan war against the Soviets. They collect money in different forms -- zakat, sadaqat, donations -- and use the money to fund extremists. With this oil money -- which comes mostly from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf -- Islam has been hijacked by people who do not occupy the real world, people who are driven by the past and not the future, who love death over life and never pass up a chance to show it. The discourse of religious extremists is in many ways similar to that all the other extreme ideologies that have controlled the minds of people in the region during their decades of defeat. They are, for example, virulently anti-American. But then so were Arab Nationalists. They are anti-Israeli. So were Arab Nationalists. They seek continuous war and confrontation. So did Arab Nationalists. They think that the people should make sacrifices to prove them right. So did Arab Nationalists. Of course there are differences, deep ones, between religious extremists and the Arab Nationalists who have ruled, and still rule, the Arab world. The differences are ideological in as much as what the religious extremists are fighting for is an Islamic state while the goal of the Arab Nationalists is a national state. Both states, though, are totalitarian. Moderate elements on both sides believe that, faced with day to day practicalities, something different will emerge, as is happening now in Turkey and as happened to the Christian Democrats in Western Europe a long time before. But unfortunately we are at a stage that still cannot conceive of political competition. What do you think is holding the political process back? It is corruption. Corruption of the state, of economic and social institutions, of the media, in education and in public services, distorts our political life. It is argued that if you confront this corruption you will weaken the state and give religious extremists the chance they have been waiting for to jump over the last hurdle. So, goes the argument, you must hold back. Only in holding back the only people who criticise this corruption are the extremists. They become heroes in the eyes of the public. Unfortunately for those who dream of an "Islamic state" developments on the ground do not seem rosy. This is not because of the mood of the people or because of any shortage of oil money. Nor am I under any illusion that democratic forces are ready to come out fighting. The scene doesn't look rosy for religious extremists because there are so many of them, and they are supported by so many different powers. One such power is Persia. Yes, Persia has been born again, inspired by Khomeini and certified by Ahmadinejad. Indeed, it is Ahmadinejad who straddles the religious and national border. But the only way he can create any depth for his foreign policy is to mobilise the Arab world behind Persia for without the Arab world Iran can have very little influence in the Muslim world or in international politics. This explains why he is so tied up in issues related to Palestine and anti-Americanism. At the time when most Arabs have become moderate Ahmadinejad is reviving notions of war and confrontation. He is forging new alliances in an attempt to gain more influence than ever in the Middle East. Persia's relations with the Syrian government, with Hizbullah in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine, have developed to the extent that decisions taken in Tehran impact the region directly. Khaled Mashaal of Hamas made an astonishing statement a few days ago, following a visit to Tehran. He vowed that Hamas would fight Israel if the latter attacked Iran. Hassan Nasrallah, of Hizbullah, has made similar statements. In Syria the ruling clan looks at Iran as its biggest and most reliable ally in its confrontation with the Americans over Lebanon. Iran is training suicide bombers from Lebanon, Syria, Palestine, the Gulf States and North Africa. Most of these suicide bombers, when they finish their training, go to Iraq. Soon, though, they will be taking on other extreme religious groups in other Arab countries. It is simply a matter of time. What is happening in Iraq is sending shock waves across the Arab world. But Iranian intervention in the affairs of religious groups -- as is now happening in the small Gulf states -- will eventually result in divisions. For the moment, though, extreme Salafi groups in the Gulf are united with Iran in supporting Hamas in Palestine and some extremist groups in Iraq. We have the anomalous situation in which Shia Persia has been supporting Sunni Zarqawi and training camps set up by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, under the command of extreme Shiite officers, are teaching young Sunnis to fight "Jews and Christians". But once they leave the camps they may go anywhere. Salafis and Wahhabis will find themselves face to face with better-trained groups coming from Iran. Such extreme religious groups will be sucked into infighting, at which point they will lose much of their appeal. The growth of the political religious movement will be subject to pressure from forces within and without the Arab world. The Saudis, and leaders of the Gulf states, will try to remain in the driving seat. They will increasingly clampdown on extremists. The Iranians will use despair, especially among the young, to mobilise support for its foreign policy. And the result, truly, will be a new Karbala. Should the Arab people idly await such a bleak future? Some may say yes, it is death we want, and long live our leaders, which is exactly what is happening now, in Iraq, under the Persian control. * The writer is chairman of the Arab Organisation for Freedom of the Press and has worked as an adviser to the United Nations mission to Iraq.
