By Salama A Salama In a few days, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is likely to refer the Iranian nuclear dossier to the UN Security Council. Tehran is gripped with a sense of impending doom. The Iranians have tried their hand at shuttle diplomacy to no avail. Their exchanges with Moscow and several European capitals failed to avert the crisis. So much is at stake. Iran remains adamant on its right to enrich uranium, and the West is holding to its guns. The US, for one, is making sure Iran doesn't turn into a nuclear power. Diplomacy is over now and a zero-sum game is about to begin. Confrontation is in the air, and as the tensions build, brinkmanship is to be expected. The US and the West are keeping their options open, and they're not mincing their words. From political pressure to military attacks, the West is threatening to go to any length to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Iran says its intentions are peaceful. The Americans and Europeans are far from convinced. The Russians tried to be helpful. They offered Iran a chance to enrich uranium in Russia for some time, at least until the crisis has passed. No agreement has been reached. There just wasn't enough goodwill for this to happen. As far as Iran is concerned, it does not want a deal that prevents it from conducting supervised nuclear research in the future. The Americans have not been supportive about the Russian initiative, which may be one of the reasons it never got off the ground. In the Arab world, many believe that Iran has entered the dark tunnel in which Iraq found itself under Saddam Hussein. The Arabs are taking a sombre view of the possibility of a US or an Israeli attack on Iran. But Ali Larijani, the Iranian national security adviser, dismisses US and Israeli threats as mere psychological warfare. He has voiced the view that the US doesn't want the Arabs and Muslims to develop sophisticated nuclear technology. The Americans want us to stick to making tomato paste, he quipped. To add insult to the injury, President Bush went to India and offered it nuclear and strategic cooperation. He proposed an agreement through which India may obtain nuclear fuel from the US in return for allowing international inspections. Talk about mixed signals! Time was that the US was bitterly opposed to India developing nuclear technology. At one point, the US imposed sanctions on India to suppress its nuclear programme. But once India became a nuclear power, the US changed its tune. India, you may recall, is not an IAEA member. Iran is. The Iranians say they are ready for the worst. Despite US attempts to get the opposition on its side, the Iranians stand united. The Americans may not be as clever as they think. One thing they're forgetting is that Iran is different from Iraq. Iran is a major regional power with extensive influence in other countries. If push comes to shove, the Iranians can cause unspeakable damage to US and Western interests. What is pathetic is the indecision of Arab and Muslim countries. They have done nothing to support Iran. The cartoons made them angry. A major nuclear crisis in the region left them puzzled. Iran is fighting a battle. It is fighting a battle on behalf of the entire Third World, and it is standing alone. The battle is likely to be protracted and costly. Iran may have to withdraw from the IAEA and resume enriching uranium, perhaps on a small scale, out of the sight of the international inspectors. A showdown is inevitable now. Hopefully, it will be the last nail in the coffin of neo- con policies. As for our misfortunate region, more trouble is ahead.
