Serene Assir analyses the implications of the exposure of the Mexican left-right divide As Mexico held the most hotly contested presidential elections in its modern history, the nation emerged torn over the apparent victory of the ruling National Action Party (PAN) candidate Felipe Calderon Hinojosa, controversially endorsed by outgoing president and long-time Washington ally Vicente Fox. Having defeated leftist candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador 2 July by a margin that astonishingly amounted to under one per cent of the vote, according to the Federal Electoral Tribunal (IFE) which is in charge of overseeing elections, he and his supporters have adamantly denied that any fraud led to his victory. Meanwhile, Mexico witnessed historical demonstrations called by Obrador, whose Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) broadly appeals to the country's disadvantaged classes, to demand a recount. At press time, it appeared unlikely that such a recount would take place, particularly after Mexican United Nations representatives issued calls for calm and respect for the democratic outcome of the election. Nevertheless, on 6 July, a coalition led by Obrador formalised its request for a recount in 152 electoral districts where irregularities were reported, according to a report in the Mexican daily El Economista. Among the factors cited in Obrador's official complaint were "the inequity of the competition" and "the intervention of external actors in the process", particularly in the electronic media, thus spreading anti-PRD messages well past the date when presidential candidates' campaigns were due to end. The various candidates were given just four days to file their complaints, while the IFE has until September to officially announce the president- elect. Perhaps, however, what is most crucial at this point is not the outcome of the elections which -- potential surprises notwithstanding -- for all intents and purposes appears to have been won by Fox's ally. It remains unlikely that there will be a Ukraine rerun and a recount of the votes, especially given the fact that more and more voices are emerging in Mexico stipulating that a reopening of any ballot boxes would render the entire elections null. More crucial has been the emergence of a very distinct gap in Mexico between the right and the left, effectively splitting the population down the middle. A perusal of Mexican-run weblogs and opinion pages in the press further highlights the way in which the presidential battle has turned the population against itself, with Calderon's supporters accusing Obrador's of illegitimately taking to the streets and stirring trouble, while Obrador's are accusing Calderon's of fraud and nepotism, and calling the elections theirs. And while the irregularities alleged by Obrador's supporters may have merely constituted isolated examples that do not call for a recount, as Calderon's camp has claimed, Mexico's fraud-ridden and despotic political history may have -- and legitimately so -- created enough cause for concern among the left. For a start, Mexico's fledgling experiment in democracy, launched under Fox, came only after decades of rule by one party, to then be replaced by a regime friendly to Washington and countless economic treaties imposed from the top-down that protected the interests of none other than the client class and its unfortunate subordinates. Mexico under Fox -- as before him -- persistently represented the last frontline between North and South America, beyond which anything, Chavez on the one hand and the Chiapas liberation movement on the other, was possible. In a sense Mexico, under a leftist regime, would no doubt constitute an unnecessary disaster for United States trade interests in its backyard, given the current situation throughout Latin America. What remains to be seen is what the leftists will do with their near-victory. Already mocked by many observers, both local and international, for their efforts at having the vote recounted, Obrador's supporters were nevertheless expected to again turn out en masse on Wednesday. Should the leftist movement in Mexico gather speed over the coming months, it will no doubt have some juggling to do in order to ensure it uses its relative electoral achievement and apparent power to secure some of its ideological demands, as the new government takes the throne. Meanwhile, should things go Obrador's way, one is left to wonder what will happen in the next elections. Should the leftists win next time, the shape of Latin America would be wholly changed. Then again, given the high speed with which socialist leaders have come into power or have come close to doing so over recent months -- starting with Bolivia -- Latin America may have already changed drastically by then. What is certain is that it is more than natural for the electoral results to be so close in a country crucial to both Latin America and the United States. As in any game, that is the beauty of democracy. Remaining, however, are the legitimate calls for justice by the thousands who turned out for Obrador, who, being the country's poor, take to the streets because they have no other space in which to identify their concerns and to demand their rights. Not necessarily because the vote was stolen -- because it may well not have been -- but rather because the fruits of their work persistently is, as is often the case across the Third World.
