Gamal Nkrumah analyses the ramifications of last Sunday's closely contested Serbian presidential poll which witnessed the largest turnout since the ouster of Slobodan Milosevic It was a telling contrast. The pro-Western incumbent Serbian President Boris Tadic was somewhat subdued even though he won no less than 35 per cent of this week's hotly- contested Serbian presidential election. Tadic was running neck-to-neck with the nationalist contender Tomislav Nikolic, but it was the latter who emerged as the undisputed winner of the presidential poll, edging ahead of Tadic with 40 per cent. Nikolic was triumphant. "I want to unify Serbia," he told his supporters in the Serbian capital Belgrade after the results of the presidential poll were announced. "And, no one can stop me," he thundered. Moreover, Nikolic invoked the name of the late Serbian strongman Slobodan Misosevic. And, the Serbs are an intensely emotional people. Many Serbs are devotedly loyal to the Milosevic legacy and they see Nikolic, the leader of the Serbian Radical Party, as political heir to Milosevic and his Socialist Party of Serbia. Some observers view this as Nikolic's trump card, others suspect it is a liability. Only the results of the 3 February run-off will determine which viewpoint is right and which is wrong. The presidency is a ceremonial post in Serbia; however, it is of significant symbolic value. In his more sober moments, Nikolic, for one, is confident of his ultimate political triumph. "The campaign was hard. We have the basis for victory in the second round," he noted rather modestly. Indeed, the turnout was the highest in any Serbian presidential or parliamentary poll since the political demise of Milosevic, at more than 60 per cent. For Serbian presidential contenders, 50 per cent of the vote is necessary to win outright in the first round. Nikolic might be poised for victory, but the chances of Tadic, especially with strong Western backing, are not inconsequential. Tadic may well have the last laugh if the will and the wily ways of Western powers win the day. And, herein lies the crux of the matter. One suspects that a majority of Serbs would like to join the 27-member European Union, like many of their neighbours who have seen their standards of living perceptibly improve. Other factors, however, come into play. The Serbs, for instance, are exceptionally proud of their history, and their historical links with Russia and Orthodox Christianity. Last Sunday's closely contested Serbian presidential poll coincided with the celebrations by Serbs and their Orthodox co-religionists in Eastern European countries such as Russia and Ukraine plunging into the freezing waters of lakes and rivers to retrieve beautifully-decorated ice crosses on 19 January, Epiphany according to the Julian calendar. The quaint tradition that harks back to the introduction of Orthodox Christianity to the Balkans and much of Eastern Europe in the 10th century is not merely a religious rite, rather it is a matter of cultural specificity and nationalistic identity. It is also symbolic of how close culturally Serbia is to its giant eastern neighbour. And, the similarities are not restricted to questions of religion, but also extend to language, ethnicity and inevitably politics. Roman Catholic member- states of the former Yugoslavia such as Slovenia and Croatia are far more oriented towards Europe and the West. This is not to deny that Serbia is an integral part of Europe. Still, to embrace or not to embrace pan-European philosophy was a key ideological deliberation during the run-up to last Sunday's Serbian presidential poll. The other two paramount issues were the status of Kosovo and the deplorable state of the economy. It is against this historical backdrop that Serbs venerate Kosovo in much the same manner as Jews, for example, revere the Holy Land. Serbs are convulsed by emotional arguments, especially when these concern Kosovo. The first Serb kingdom originated in the war-torn province which is now administered by the United Nations and is dominated by ethnic Albanians who constitute 92 per cent of Kosovo's population. The Albanians argue that they were the indigenous people of Kosovo because the territory was first inhabited by the Dardani, a Thraco-Illyrian tribe considered the progenitors of modern Albanians. But the Serbs have a long memory, too. It was at the Battle of Kosovo in 1398 that the Serbs lost their land to the Ottoman Turks. The Ottoman Sultan Murad was buried in Gazi Mestan, near the Kosovar capital Pristina, where the decisive battle took place. His son and successor completed the conquest of Serbia. Five centuries of Ottoman occupation of Serbia followed until the Serbo- Ottoman War (1877-78) underpinned the independence of Serbia. The Serbs remember all too well that it was Russia that came to their assistance. It was their co-religionists in the Kremlin, in much the same manner as today, who saved the day. Moscow, now as then, strongly supports Serbian sovereignty over Kosovo. Furthermore -- and this should really be the deciding factor, considering how fraught with danger any changes of borders have been in light of the 20th century -- the Serbs have the legal right in the matter, based on their presence and sovereignty over the centuries. Period. The European Union, in an effort presumably designed to placate the Serbs, has been urging the Albanians of Kosovo to postpone their quest for outright independence. In Serbia, the debate concerning Kosovo's independence is not likely to die down anytime soon. The province is the poorest per capita and least developed part of Europe. But, for many Serbs, sovereignty over the province is non- negotiable. Kosovo, after all, was the cradle of Serbian territorial sovereignty before it was "swamped" by the mainly Muslim Albanians, as a Serbian diplomat once explained to me. Surprisingly enough, not all Serbian presidential contenders were against the independence of Kosovo: the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party Cedomir Jovanovic, for instance, was not loath of the notion of Kosovar independence. Yet for the entire disillusion with the results in the Tadic camp, there is a sneaking suspicion that Western powers will come to their rescue. Tadic won enough votes to push out the less promising presidential hopefuls and threaten Nikolic's position. The problem is that Tadic's pro-Western stance goes against the grain of the traditional Serbian national psyche. Nikolic's lieutenants were not the only Serbs to take offence at Tadic's open pro-Western posturing. The Popular Coalition candidate Velimir Ilic, who came a distant third scooping 8 per cent of the votes, was supported by current Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica, who was instrumental in the US/EU-sponsored ouster of Milosevic. Ilic's consitutuency was the elderly, rural poor, which is most likely to transfer en masse to Nikolic. Whatever happens, do not expect the ethos of Europe to engulf Serbia. Domestic economic concerns predominate. Europe is important only in so far as it impacts economic prospects. The two leading contenders for the Serbian presidency claim to offer ambitious policies to bring prosperity to the poor. Tadic says that his presidency will encourage Western investors. Nikolic is betting on Russian largesse and trade concessions. Fuel-starved Serbia desperately needs Russian oil and gas. "We do not want to argue with the European Union," Nikolic told reporters in Belgrade after preliminary results. "We need the EU, but not at any price," he quickly added. Economics and politics are inextricably intertwined. The good news is that the Serbian presidential poll offers plenty of opportunities for the landlocked Balkan nation. Opportunities for rhetoric, for a start. Serbian politicians have used the occasion to drum up support for the Serbian cause. Serbs were demoralised by the NATO aggression in 1998 and the overthrow of the Milosevic regime, his subsequent trial at the International Criminal Court in The Hague, Netherlands. Serbia for all intents and purpuses is a deeply wounded nation in desperate search of redemption. Beyond the lofty talk, wounded national pride over the loss of Bosnia, Montenegro and now Kosovo bear their marks on Serbian political arena. If you put all that together, it is easy to see why Nikolic won, and why Tadic came a close second. The nationalistic theme permits Serbian politicians to adopt a Slavic, or even Orthodox perspective. This raises two broad questions: will Serbia at this defining moment veer toward Europe or Russia? The allure of Europe is strong, too. The polarisation over this masks the real underlying issue of the economy and its direction -- a retention of socialism in the face of the neoliberal agenda of the West.
