Syria embraces refugees from Israel's open offensive on Lebanon, hoping that the war does not spread, writes Sami Moubayed The latest war on Lebanon means many things for Syria. The West, and particularly US President George W Bush, is accusing the Syrians of being behind Hizbullah's capturing of two Israeli soldiers on 12 July. This was denied by Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, secretary-general of Hizbullah, in an interview with the Doha-based Al-Jazeera TV on 22 July 2006, saying: "True, I had not informed the Lebanese government, but neither had I informed my closest allies. Syria and Iran had not been informed. No Syrian or Iranian person had had any prior information. They had not been informed, and I had not consulted any one of them. We are a resistance group operating on Lebanese soil. We have prisoners in Israeli prisons. It is our natural right to restore them." Syria's official reaction was muted during the early stages of the conflict. Apart from daily editorials in the three-state run dailies, naturally praising Hizbullah, Syria said nothing of the Israeli war on Lebanon. Official Syria was clearly taken aback by the Israeli response, not expecting such an offensive. This adds credibility to Nasrallah's testimony that Syria was not informed of Hizbullah's operation on 12 July. The public outpouring in favour of Hizbullah and Nasrallah, however, was colossal in the Syrian street. Syrians remembered that at no point in their history since Gamal Abdel-Nasser created the Egypt-Syria alliance in 1958 had they been so unified and electrified by one man. Almost immediately, war songs began appearing on radio, as did the music of Fayrouz. Large billboards usually reserved for commercial advertisements were now carrying Nasrallah's pictures, and cars all over the country were now adorned with the yellow flag of Hizbullah. Nasrallah's speeches were set as ring tones on mobiles, and posters carrying his picture, that of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad and former president Hafez Al-Assad appear everywhere. The majority of Syrians do not blame Nasrallah for this war, seeing it as imposed upon him by Israel. They said that even if he had not captured the two soldiers, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert would have created a pretext to launch a war on Lebanon, in order to destroy Hizbullah. Nasrallah further assured them by appearing on Al-Manar TV on 25 July and saying that this war was pre-prepared and set to start in September or October 2006, with the objective of destroying Hizbullah, meaning that the arrest of the two soldiers came as a blessing in disguise for Israel. Early on, some said that Nasrallah miscalculated and underestimated the Israeli response. Their views appeared soured from Nasrallah's unkept promise to hit Haifa on the first two days of combat. They believed that he did not bomb Haifa because he was unable to, lacking the courage or weapons, arguing that Nasrallah was not as strong as he claimed to be. His pre-recorded speech on Al-Manar TV, where he seemed worried and very exhausted, heightened fears that Nasrallah was finished. These negative views changed completely when Nasrallah hit Haifa. He now promised to hit "beyond Haifa". He then landed a missile on an Israeli warship off the coast of Beirut, following up by giving an interview to Al-Jazeera, displaying defiance and strength when saying that "the universe" will not be able to recover the two captured soldiers from Hizbullah if no Lebanese prisoners were released from Israeli jails. Meanwhile, some Syrians feared the spread of Iranian influence in the Middle East, claiming that Nasrallah was but a pawn of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Syria's grand theologian, Said Ramadan Al-Butti, appeared on Syrian TV days after the war started saying that some believers were coming to him after prayers and whispering in his ear their fears of "Shiaification" of the Middle East. He assured them that Nasrallah was a pan-Arab and pan-Islamic leader, with no hidden Persian agenda. Butti prayed for Nasrallah on Syrian TV and cried while praying. Other Syrians argued that who started the war and why was irrelevant. In times of war there is no room for neutrality, they said. Either the Syrians are with Hizbullah and Lebanon, or with Israel and the United States. Syria's first practical task was to respond to the thousands of refugees that poured across the border when fighting began on 12 July. In all, around 50,000 displaced Lebanese are now living in Syria. The total number of those having crossed the border, using Syria as a stepping-stone to third destinations, is beyond 250,000. Hotel rates have tripled in the past 10 days in Syria, as did taxi fares from Beirut to Damascus. A trip that usually costs $60-70 is now running at nearly $1,000. Civil society, religious institutions, banks and NGOs united to provide the displaced with homes, the Syrian Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs responding immediately offering public venues and schools (now closed for summer vacations) as refugee camps. In addition, many citizens offered their private homes as shelter to the Lebanese. I visited one of the refugee camps organised by the Syrian Young Entrepreneur Association (SYEA) in Daraya in the suburbs of Damascus. The organisation and enthusiasm of volunteers was, to say the least, highly impressive. SYEA placed 400 refugees in one large school and, due to outpouring of donations from ordinary Syrians, has been feeding, clothing, nursing and housing them since the war broke out. One organiser said: "the storage rooms are filled to the ceiling. They get emptied in two hours, and are re-filled within two hours by donations. It's unbelievable." Many refugees arrived poor, having evacuated South Lebanon when the bombs started falling with no money or personal belongings. One small Syrian girl came to the camp with small packs of biscuits, wanting to donate them to the Lebanese. Another woman who had just given birth to her own baby offered to breastfeed other infants. Other Syrians offered bread, sugar and other commodities while large donations came through businesses and the Syrian Red Crescent Society. On a military-political front, Syria is on high alert, fearing that the Israeli war will spread. It is now clear after two weeks of fighting that Hizbullah will not be crushed by aerial bombardment. Nasrallah, in his Al-Jazeera interview, said that any talk about Israel having harmed Hizbullah's military and political command was untrue. On the Israeli side, bombs landing on Safad, Haifa, Acre, Kiryat Shmona and the Biblical city of Nazareth infuriated the public. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert entered this war promising the Israelis to rescue the two abducted soldiers, and disarm and then destroy Hizbullah. Two weeks into the conflict he has achieved none of his objectives. Not only that, 40 Israelis have been killed and -- according to Nasrallah -- two million are hiding in bunkers in fear of Hizbullah rockets. Doubtless Israelis will soon demand that Olmert acts more decisively. An exit strategy for Olmert -- especially following Nasrallah's 25 July commitment to bomb "beyond Haifa" -- is difficult. Cornered and desperate, Olmert might turn to hit military or political targets in Syria. Meanwhile, a full ground invasion of Lebanon seems inevitable if Israel is to locate and disarm Hizbullah's weapons. Syrian Information Minister Muhsen Bilal announced that if Israeli forces entered Lebanon, Syria would be drawn into war as "they can get to within 20 kilometres of Damascus." He asked: "What will we do? Stand by with our arms folded? Absolutely not. Without any doubt Syria will intervene in the conflict."
