Sudan's political conflict entered a new phase as “counter-revolutionary” forces have come to the fore. A number of extremist and Salafi leaders have been mobilising their followers to hold “a million-man protest for the victory of Islam” and against “secularist revolutionaries”. Meanwhile, the coalition of opposition groups that signed the Declaration of Freedom and Change in January announced Sunday they were postponing the naming of members of a civilian council that, according to opposition demands, should be handed power from the transitional military council. The Sudanese Professionals Association (SPA), which has been leading the protests since they erupted 19 December 2018, and the remaining opposition bloc halted negotiations with the transitional military council and were set to start escalation measures, said SPA spokesman Ahmed Rabie. Rabie said the military council was “stalling in order not to transfer power to civilians”. Members of the military council said they would reply to Declaration Forces' demands within a week. The council's president, Abdel-Fattah Al-Borhan, said he would hand over authority to a civilian government immediately if the opposition agreed on its list of government members. The opposition is yet to agree on members of a civilian council, government and legislative council. The latter, the Declaration stated, should be representative of the entire nation with its diverse ethnicities, religions and cultures and where women would receive 40 per cent of the seats. That the opposition forms these three bodies, and restructures others, without holding elections or facing obstacles is going to be difficult. “There are many disagreements between the SPA and the other forces that signed the Declaration of Freedom and Change. Moreover, the leftist current in the opposition bloc is fiercely attacking the National Umma Party. Everyone is against everyone,” said Khaled Mahmoud, a writer and researcher in Sudanese affairs. “It is true there is a major conflict between the transitional military council and the opposition, but divisions are eating up the opposition from within as well,” he added. Internal divisions have also extended within the ranks of the Islamists, whose organisations that defected from the regime of toppled President Omar Al-Bashir are not united. The main body of the Islamist current is affiliated to the overthrown regime, and so are the majority of Salafi forces and the leadership of Hassan Al-Turabi's Popular Congress Party. The Muslim Brotherhood organisation is on the side of the opposition bloc, save for a number of its leaders. Al-Islah Movement, headed by Ghazi Salaheddin, a leading figure in the Al-Bashir regime for two decades, is also siding with the opposition, at least for the time being. These divisions prevented the successful mobilisation of masses called for by Al-Tayeb Mustafa, Al-Bashir's racist uncle, and Salafi leader Abdel-Hayy Youssef. During the sermon preceding Friday's noon prayers, Youssef said that protesters camping in front of the army headquarters were “secularists and communists”, and that “the Muslims of Sudan will not leave the country in their hands so that they can abolish Islamic Sharia.” Youssef called on the president of the transitional military council and his deputy, saying “Islamic Sharia is a red line. If they [the opposition] are mobilising the crowds, we are capable of mobilising more masses, and if they are shouting slogans, we will shout for Allah and his religion.” Islamic Sharia was first applied in Sudan in September 1983 during the rule of late president Gaafar Numeiri (the Second Military Rule, 1969-1985), which exacerbated the civil war with the southerners. Sudanese southerners called for abolishing Islamic Sharia in Khartoum, being a national capital, and in south Sudan region, Nuba Mountains and south of the Blue Nile. The Sudanese authorities rejected the southerners' demand, which put off the peace process until the regime agreed to cancelling Islamic Sharia laws in the south in 2005, when the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, known as the Naivasha Agreement, was signed. During his presidency, Al-Bashir had repeated in his public speeches that his country was targeted because it applied “the laws of Allah” and that Sudan's economic conditions could have been better had it abandoned them. “But we don't sell our religion or country for dollars, wheat and fuel,” Al-Bashir had said, referring to the hike in the prices of bread and fuel that led to the 19 December 2018 protests that removed his regime. Despite the fact that Youssef was met with enlightened responses during the sermon, a number of elements from Islamist and Salafi groups converged on the Grand Mosque, in central Khartoum, in preparation for a demonstration. The army and police personnel prevented them from proceeding with their plan. The security move raised quizzical eyebrows. “It seems the army and police quelled the protest before it started to draw a bigger crowd. The transitional military council doesn't want a small protest that may weaken the counter-revolutionary force and lead to its defeat from the first round,” said Mohamed Al-Asbat, SPA spokesman in France. “The counter-revolutionary forces are not alarming if the bloc that signed the Declaration of Freedom and Change is united,” he added. Many in the opposition bloc fear that internal disputes may hinder agreement over the names that will form the civilian council and government, subsequently extending the rule of the transitional military council. “We will not settle for a government formed by the military council. Otherwise, we could have settled for Al-Bashir's government,” stated Al-Asbat. The researcher doesn't want to see elections taking place at present in Sudan in order not to be taken over by Islamist “counter-revolutionary” forces. “The main disputes within the opposition bloc are between the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North and the Sudanese Communist Congress on one side, and Sadik Al-Mahdi's National Umma Party and Al-Turabi's Popular Congress Party on the other,” explained Mahmoud. “If disagreements persist the opposition bloc will not withstand the divisions and the National Umma and the Popular Congress, along with some members from the Unionist Alliance, will leave the opposition and join the ranks of the Islamists that defected from Al-Bashir's regime,” Mahmoud added. “In which case, the Islamists that remained with Al-Bashir till the end will join the newly formed group, which is going to be a major force that can easily win any forthcoming elections — a catastrophic loss for the SPA and leftists,” he stated. A number of groups suggested nominating Al-Mahdi to preside over the civilian council or the government since there is “consensus over Al-Mahdi, who is deeply respected” in and out of Sudan. Nonetheless, members of the opposition who belong to the 40s age bracket believes that naming Al-Mahdi is a step backwards and a defeat of the revolution, according to Mohamed Dawoud, a leading member in the liberal Sudan Congress Party. Al-Mahdi headed the government for a few months in 1966 and then during the Third Democracy from 1986 to 1989. He authored more than 100 publications in which he explained his opinion about the application of Islamic Sharia, which he approved of on the condition that it not be applied in regions inhabited by non-Muslims where cultures are intertwined. While prime minister in the 1980s Al-Mahdi refused to make peace with the Sudan People's Liberation Movement, headed by John Garang. Ultimately, he gave in when his ruling partner Mohamed Othman Al-Mirghani presented the 1988 initiative. The accord included provisions for a ceasefire and a freeze on the implementation of Islamic Sharia throughout the country, including the non-Muslim south. The accord was the reason Al-Bashir rushed the 1989 coup which was supported by the National Islamic Front, led by Al-Turabi. Hence, 30-year Islamic-military rule. The delaying of the formation of a government and halting negotiations between the opposition and the transitional military council are due, for the time being, to disagreements over nominations. But these events, coupled with the emergence of counter-revolutionary forces, make almost certain that Sudan will witness further political tempests in the coming days.
