Last week, the United Nations announced that it would not play a role in a controversial planned vote on self-determination that Iraq's autonomous Kurdistan region hopes will allow the Kurds to finally leave Iraq. With a referendum for independence now scheduled for September, the UN's decision has been widely seen as a harsh blow to Kurdistan Region Government (KRG) leader Masoud Barzani's drive for statehood. Barzani has inextricably linked his political destiny to achieving Kurdish independence from Iraq and has declared that the bid for statehood is driven by a desire to “die in the shadow of an independent Kurdistan flag”. By distancing itself from the referendum, the UN has, however, joined the United States, key Western nations and Iraq's powerful neighbours, all of which have voiced concerns about Barzani's unilateral endeavour. Iraq's central government in Baghdad has opposed the referendum. Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi described the move as “illegal and unconstitutional” and leader of Iraq's Shia ruling coalition Ammar al-Hakim said “only Israel will recognise a Kurdish state” in northern Iraq. This broad front of opposition leaves Barzani playing a dangerous game, with his awkward strategy for Kurdistan's independence not working as well as he had hoped. Barzani has announced that the KRG will hold a referendum on independence on 25 September, which would also include voting in the disputed territories seized by Kurdish Peshmergas fighters during the fight against the Islamic State (IS) terror group in Iraq. The United Nations Assistance Mission in Iraq (UNAMI) said in a statement last week that it had no intention of being engaged in any shape or form in supporting or overseeing the referendum on Kurdistan's independence. Earlier, the United States had reiterated its support for a “unified, federal, stable and democratic Iraq” and voiced concerns about the planned September referendum to the Kurdish authorities. The US State Department said it was concerned that the vote would distract from “more urgent priorities” such as the defeat of IS militants. It urged the KRG to engage Baghdad on outstanding issues, including future relations “on the basis of the Iraqi constitution”. Germany, the United Kingdom and several other Western powers also said they were concerned that plans by the KRG to vote on independence in September could exacerbate tensions in Iraq. Turkey and Iran, Iraq's two powerful neighbours who fear separatism among their own Kurdish populations, most of whom live in areas along the border with Iraq, have also expressed strong reservations. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned that the Kurdish plan for an independence referendum was a “threat” to the territorial integrity of Iraq and called on the KRG to stay united with Baghdad. Erdogan said the Kurdish plan for a referendum “deeply distresses us. It is a threat to the territorial integrity of Iraq and is a wrong step to take.” Iran has also voiced its opposition to the decision by the KRG to hold a referendum on independence, saying the vote would lead to “new problems”. “The Kurdistan region is part of the Iraqi Republic, and unilateral decisions outside the national and legal framework, especially the Iraqi constitution... can only lead to new problems,” Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Bahram Ghasemi said on 10 June. While the world rightly worries about the prospect of escalation with Baghdad and perhaps also with neighbouring nations, Barzani has insisted that the referendum on independence will go ahead. In his latest barrage of rhetoric, Barzani even bragged that Kurdistan's independence has been his life's goal, even though the strategy set by his Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) has always been a “federal” Kurdistan within a sovereign Iraq. “Whatever I have done it has been for the independence of Kurdistan,” Barzani said in an interview with the US Foreign Policy magazine published on 15 June. Unlike in his previous statements when he stressed that the referendum was only meant to make the Iraqi Kurds more aware of their right to self-determination, Barzani made it clear in the interview that the vote would be “for independence” and that “its result must be implemented.” In the final analysis, Barzani's strategy on the timing of Kurdish statehood seems to be designed primarily to make him a more potent force in Kurdistan and help him to achieve personal glory. “Imagine what this means for my legacy. All of my life has been for the independence of Kurdistan… I want to die in the shadow of the flag of an independent Kurdistan,” Barzani, who will turn 72 in August, told Foreign Policy. Barzani's ability to fulfil his dream of Kurdish statehood without further hindrance remains to be seen. But what is sure is that gambling on a referendum that lacks legitimacy and support from other Iraqi communities, neighbours and world powers is a risky business. The risk of escalation in Iraq and the entire Middle East is considerable, and a vote in favour of secession could trigger a major regional conflict. But while Kurdistan's bid for independence from Iraq remains the Middle East's next headache, neither politics nor economics in the self-ruled Region look favourable for Barzani's project. Careful feasibility analyses have shown that even if Barzani could win an independence referendum, the Kurdish region's survival as an independent state would remain in doubt. For the more than 25 years since the Iraqi Kurds under his leadership managed to carve out an autonomous region from Iraq, Barzani has failed to build an effective, unifying and stable government for the region. Over all these years the KRG has been in stalemate, largely due to the authoritarian rule Barzani has imposed on Iraq's northern region. He, his family and the KDP have taken full control of the Region's political, economic, security and military affairs. Since his term in office ended in the summer of 2015, Barzani has been refusing to step down, clinging to the seat of the KRG presidency and giving himself sweeping powers, including decreeing the referendum vote without any legitimacy or legal authority. Kurdistan's elected parliament has not sat since October 2015 after the region's security forces prevented the parliament's speaker, who belongs to the pro-reform Gorran Party, from entering Erbil to chair the parliament's meetings. The KRG's cabinet has not been able to meet in full after Barzani's nephew and KRG Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani abruptly fired Gorran Party ministers, virtually bringing the government under the full control of Barzani's KDP and its partner the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). As a result, political life in Kurdistan has been in disarray, making it extremely difficult for rival political parties to agree on the details of the referendum and its aftermath. Gorran, which came second in the KRG's last parliamentary elections after the KDP and the region's largest Islamic-oriented party, has declared its opposition to the referendum, saying it only serves Barzani's self-interest. The PUK, which initially supported Barzani's move, later said its backing remained “conditional” on the now-defunct Kurdistan parliament passing a law to approve the vote. The inability of the Kurdish political groups to set aside their differences and translate Kurdish national ambitions into a decisive push for secession will certainly deal a blow to the Kurds' hopes for independence. The economic case for independence is even feebler, as Barzani's referendum move comes amid a severe financial and economic crisis resulting from mismanagement, graft and heavy reliance on oil revenues from Baghdad's coffers. Worries over the political feasibility of independence pale in comparison with concerns over the region's economy, which depends on a sustained system of patronage that provides superfluous government jobs in exchange for political support. This system of artificial job creation depending on oil resources coupled with rampant government corruption, the lack of an economic development strategy, and rising living costs has had a devastating impact on the population. Adding to all these pressures, the Kurdistan region's population has nearly doubled since 1990. With half of all Iraqi Kurds younger than 25 years of age, the government sector cannot offer enough opportunities for thousands of young people entering the work force each year, forcing them to seek work abroad. Retaliation measures by neighbouring countries including economic sanctions if Kurdistan pushes ahead with its independence plans could paralyse the economy of the new state. With the rest of the Middle East in chaos, the question also remains whether Kurdistan could survive as an independent state. The answer almost certainly hinges on to what extent a divorce from Iraq would be amicable or peaceful. Unfortunately, a messy break-up of Iraq could flare up to the point of hurting Kurdistan and Iraq and creating large disturbances in the entire Middle East. Falling support from the main Kurdish parties and consequently from the Kurdish public for the referendum would cost Barzani dearly and turn him into a modern Kurdish Don Quixote who has lost his sense of geopolitical reality. That would almost certainly shatter Barzani's hopes for Kurdistan's statehood in his life time and of becoming the legendary leader who made that dream come true.
