Just as Iraq is preparing for the end of its fight against the Islamic State (IS) terror group and embarking on the momentous task of national reconciliation, leaders of the autonomous Kurdistan Region have stepped up their bid to break away from Iraq. Since IS's dramatic advances in 2014, Kurdish leaders have used the stand-off to exploit the chaos and expand their control over huge swathes of land they have seized from Baghdad, including the oil-rich Kirkuk Province. But the Kurdistan Region's endeavours to seek a referendum on self-determination are likely to face legal and political challenges, and there has been speculation about the ability of the politically divided Kurds to build and safeguard an independent united state. Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani has made it clear that the Kurdistan Region Government (KRG) will soon hold a referendum on independence “to show the will of the Kurdish people to the world”. Barzani told visiting UN Secretary-General António Guterres last week that the KRG would hold an independence referendum “at the earliest time”. His affirmation came amid increasing tensions in Kirkuk after the Kurdish-dominated city council decided to formally raise the KRG flag over government buildings in defiance of the Iraqi government in Baghdad which has said the unilateral move is unconstitutional. Barzani has vowed that he will stage a referendum on Kurdish sovereignty, but he has not set a firm date for the poll. KRG officials are now suggesting that the referendum could take place sometime this year. On the ground, the Kurdish authorities have embarked on major demographic changes in areas that have come under their control. Barzani has vowed that the Kurdish Peshmergas forces will never give the territories back to Baghdad. Human Rights Watch and and other groups have reported that hundreds of Arab families have been expelled from Kirkuk at the hands of the Peshmergas since they took control of the city. Villagers have been prevented from returning to their homes in demolished Arab villages, the groups said. Last week, Arab Iraqi MP Mohamed Tamim from Kirkuk said that some 70 villages have been razed to the ground since 2015, forcing their Arab residents to leave. The proposed poll has raised questions about the legality of voting on the future of Kurdistan, which the country's constitution, endorsed by the Kurds in 2005, considers to be an integral part of Iraq. While the right of self-determination of peoples is a fundamental principle in international law, experts agree that it does not necessarily imply secession from an existing state. They note that the principle of self-determination largely entails the right to participate in the democratic process of governance and to influence the country's future politically, socially and culturally. In Iraqi Kurdistan's case, while the constitutionality of the referendum remains in doubt, many other legal and political issues also need to be addressed before deciding to carry out the poll. The most important is to make an agreement between the democratically elected representatives of the Kurds and the central government of Iraq in Baghdad on the scope and limits of any Kurdish referendum on self-determination. The wording of the referendum and the options offered should be worked out by the country's national institutions, especially the parliament in Baghdad, and they should be in line with the constitution. Such an agreement would ensure that any referendum would help to heal rather than to increase the divide between Arabs and Kurds in Iraq. A key issue is the demographic changes made by the Kurdish administration in the disputed areas, in particular the expulsions of the Arab population and the sudden increase in the Kurdish population. One of the main considerations that must be addressed is the status of minorities such as Turkomen, Christians and Yazidis and the protection of their rights to self-determination. There must also be clarity and agreement on the necessary turnout, the size of any majority and other matters considered to be relevant before any referendum can be considered to be valid. Another issue that has emerged is the rationality of the referendum from the Kurdish perspective in terms of political and economic feasibility and the sustainability of possible independence. While nationalism could be the driving force behind the calls for the referendum, divisions that have rendered the KRG dysfunctional will make it difficult to generate a consensus both before and after it takes place. Indeed, worries over the Kurdish relationships with Baghdad are likely to pale in comparison with concerns over infighting between Kurdish political parties and centres of power after any referendum. The Kurdish leadership will need to show that the independence resulting from a referendum will not turn the region into something like South Sudan, where the collapse of the newly sovereign state has produced despair and civil war. The campaign for the Kurdish referendum and the decision by the Kirkuk council to raise the KRG flag have raised the stakes in a region where a national homeland for the Kurds in Iraq has always been seen as a nightmare for Iraq and its neighbours. Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi gave his first reaction to the Kurdish move by describing Kurdistan's “separation” from Iraq as disruptive. “Separation is not in the interest of the Kurdish nation,” Al-Abadi told the Kurdish news outlet Rudaw. Al-Abadi said he also expected strong resistance to Kurdish independence from Iraq's neighbours, naming Iran, Turkey, and Syria, which have significant Kurdish populations, as main opponents to the Kurdish quest for statehood. The Iraqi parliament decided on Saturday to reject the Kirkuk council's decision to hoist the KRG flag over government buildings in the province. Worried by the potentially detrimental impact on stability in Iraq, the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) has also expressed concerns at the “unilateral steps” of the Kirkuk council in raising the KRG flag. The UN secretary-general's office did not react to the KRG's claim that Barzani had discussed plans for a referendum in the region with Guterres. On the regional level, the Turkish government slammed Barzani's intention to hold a referendum on secession from Iraq as a “wrong step”. It also criticised the Kirkuk council decision to raise the Kurdish flag in the province. “We do not think putting this issue on the agenda is correct at a time when there are security risks at the highest levels, ” Ibrahim Kalin, a spokesperson to the Turkish presidency, was quoted as saying by the Turkish Anadolu News Agency. The Turkish government has warned officials in Kirkuk against flying the Kurdish flag alongside Iraq's national flag on government buildings. Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirm said his country would “use all means” available to stop the raising of the Kurdish flag over Kirkuk. Iran, Iraq's other key neighbour with high stakes in the country, has not hidden its concerns over possible Kurdish statehood out of fears that it could encourage its own Kurdish population to seek independence or autonomy. “Iran's principled stance is to support the country's territorial integrity and national sovereignty,” said a spokesman for Iran's Foreign Ministry Bahram Qasemi on Monday. Iranian officials have always insisted that Iraq's unity is a “red line”, and it is widely expected that Tehran will side with the Baghdad Shia-led government and put pressure on the KRG to torpedo any unilateral step to hold a referendum on self-determination. Among the fears of the Arab countries is that a Kurdish state and the break-up of Iraq could be even more detrimental to the entire Middle East and could underline the erosion of the Arab regional system. As it happens, we now have to wait and see if Barzani will deliver on his promise to hold a referendum this year, or whether he will put it on hold as he engages in a game of brinkmanship with Baghdad. Either way, the stakes remain high. If Barzani continues to play a zero-sum game, what happens will affect not only Iraq but also the very future of Kurdistan. Perhaps Barzani and other Kurdish leaders will realise that even if they continue to play on nationalist sentiments, the holding of a referendum per se will not necessarily mean that the dream of independence will come true. Perhaps they will conclude that a divorce from Iraq will be too costly and that if it happens nothing will be able to insulate Kurdistan from a messy and even bloody surrounding region.
