Iran is in the run-up to an important electoral juncture. On 19 May, Iranians will be heading to the polls to choose among the candidates for what will be Iran's twelfth presidential elections which is being held in tandem with the fifth municipal elections and the midterm elections for the tenth Islamic Consultative Assembly (the Iranian legislature). These processes are coming at an extremely critical time for Iran, both domestically and abroad, and the rivalry is intense between the moderate reformist coalition led by incumbent President Hassan Rouhani and the conservatives led by presidential candidate Ibrahim Raisi. COMPETITIVE CLIMATE: The presidential candidate registration period, which took place from 11 to 15 April, brought a number of surprises. The first was the announcement of candidacy of Ibrahim Raisi-Sadat, chairman of the Astan Quds Razavi, who is seen to have the backing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Another surprise was the nomination of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in spite of Khamenei's expressed desire that the former Iranian president refrain from doing so. Ahmadinejad's candidacy was rejected by Guardian Council, which is responsible for vetting candidates, but his application stirred considerable speculation over why had he taken this step to begin with, in defiance of the Supreme Leader's wishes. This year's registration process also broke a record for the number of applicants. Some 1,636 people registered themselves as presidential candidates, among whom were 137 women (all rejected) and 18 prominent figures. In the last (eleventh) presidential elections, only 686 people registered. This development is a reflection of the current state of uncertainty and political fluidity in Iran. So, too, perhaps are the pre-election alignments in the conservative camp as well as the willingness of the reformist camp to ally itself with moderate conservatives. At the same time, the reformists are keen to hold on to the gains they acquired at the time when Hassan Rouhani became president and, again, in the 2016 legislative elections in which the reformists' List of Hope succeeded in winning all of Tehran's 30 seats in the Islamic Consultative Assembly and 80 seats countrywide, while the conservatives won 76 and the independents 60. Hassan Rouhani's hope for winning a second term rests on this strength. According to the Elections Monitoring Committee, which falls under the Interior Ministry, the polls will be secured by 300,000 Interior Ministry security personnel deployed at polling stations throughout the country. The committee also stated that around 55 million citizens are edible to vote, among whom are 1,400,000 young people who have attained voting age and will be voting for the first time. Campaigns were officially launched 21 April, though candidates and their supporters preceded this date, unofficially, using social networking sites. Some reformist political activists have begun to call for demonstrations in the event that the results of the elections turn out contrary to voting trends, as occurred in 2009. Moreover, in a speech before election officials on 25 February 2017, President Rouhani cautioned, “under the current circumstances I can not accept if one of them comes out and says that the Guardian Council is responsible for the elections and monitoring them… In the event that any security or military force violates the law, we will have no alternative but to protest and to take a stance against that.” As such remarks suggest, Rouhani fears the possibility of electoral tampering, as many believed occurred in 2009. Rouhani also took advantage of that speech to encourage supporters to report to the polls in large numbers, which would make it difficult to rig the polls in favour of the fundamentalists. Iranian authorities, for their part, issued a sternly worded caution against any attempt to repeat the Green Movement demonstrations that erupted when the results were announced in 2009. At the same time, the Supreme Leader also expressed his hopes for a large voter turnout in the forthcoming elections. THE CANDIDATES: On 20 April, the Guardian Council, which is responsible for screening nominations to ensure they meet the required qualifications, announced the final list of six candidates: Mostafa Mir-Salim: Born in Tehran in 1947, he obtained a higher degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Poitier. He served as minister of culture during the second term of former president Hashemi Rafsanjani and was later appointed to the Expediency Discernment Council. While belonging to the conservative camp, he has espoused some centrist views. Eshaq Jahangiri: Born in 1957 in Kerman province and possessing a PhD in industrial management, Jahangiri currently serves as first vice president under Rouhani. He also served as minister of industries and mines under former president Mohamed Khatami and as a member of the Islamic Consultative Assembly for two terms. He is close to the reformist-moderate Hope bloc. Hassan Rouhani (incumbent president): Born in 1948 in Semnan province, he was educated in the religious seminary in Semnan and later in Qom. He went on to study law alongside his religious studies, graduating with a PhD in constitutional law. He became politically active in 1965 and his positions against the regime of the Shah landed him in prison several times. During the Iraq-Iran war he held a number of military posts and, afterwards, served in various political posts the last of which, before becoming president, was as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) for 16 years. Mohamed Bagher Ghalibaf: The current mayor of Tehran since 2005, Ghalibaf nominated himself twice before for the presidency. He was born in 1961 in Mashhad and obtained his doctorate in political geography from Tarbiat Modares University in Tehran. He ranks among the conservatives. Ebrahim Raisi: Born in 1960 in Mashhad, he obtained the rank of Hujjat Al-Islam from Qom seminary as well as a PhD in law from Shahid Motahari University in Tehran. After working his way up in the judiciary, to the rank of public prosecutor in Tehran, he was appointed by the Supreme Guide as chairman of the Astan Quds Razavi and is, therefore, regarded as close to Khamenei. He, too, belongs to the conservative camp. Mostafa Hashemitaba: Born in Tehran in 1946, he has served in numerous political offices, most notably as minister of industries and mines, head of the National Olympic Committee of Iran and assistant to the president for the Organisation of Youth and Sports under former president Hashemi Rafsanjani. Hashemitaba is a reformist politician. As can be seen from the foregoing, the presidential campaigns have pitted three reformists (Jahangiri, Rouhani and Hashemitaba) against three conservatives (Ghalibaf, Raisi and Mir-Salim). They also feature theologians (Rouhani and Raisi), members of the Ahl Al-Bayt (Descendants of the family of the Prophet — Hashemitaba, Raisi and Mir-Salim), and technocrats (Ghalibaf, Jahangiri). POSSIBLE WITHDRAWALS: It is not unlikely that some candidates will withdraw in favour of others shortly before election day. For example, observers expect that President Rouhani's first vice-president Jahangiri will withdraw in order to enhance Rouhani's prospects. In like manner, a number of reports suggest that Ghalibaf may drop out of the race in order to help Raisi, or vice versa. Both are members of the Popular Front of Islamic Revolution Forces, a broad coalition of conservative forces formed to forestall the splitting of the conservative vote as occurred in the previous elections when Ghalibaf refused to withdraw in favour of Ali Akbar Velayati who, in turn, refused to withdraw in favour of Ghalibaf. Rouhani's prospects are contingent on a huge turnout of his supporters which, to a considerable extent, is contingent on voters' confidence in the integrity of the polls and Rouhani's ability to ensure this. As is evident from his speech to election officials, Rouhani is acutely aware of this factor. The speech was intended, in large part, to reassure people who have not yet made up their minds whether to vote that he will do his utmost to safeguard the integrity of the polls. As a general rule, voters report to the polls in large numbers when they sense danger or when they believe that significant change can be realised through a particular candidate. For example, there was an 85 per cent voter turnout in the 2009 presidential elections, which was very high compared to the two previous elections. That high figure was a manifestation of the general mood of discontent that prevailed during Ahmadinejad's first term. A similar mood prevailed in the 2013 elections, which reflected a widespread desire for new, moderate and reformist faces in government to take the place of Ahmadinejad's hardliners and which explains why Rouhani, in 2013, prevailed over Ghalibaf, Ali Akbar Velayati and Mohsen Rezaee. It is still impossible to predict how the Iranian presidential elections battle will play out. So much can change between now and voting day and so much is contingent on the ability of the candidates to win support and convince supporters of the need to vote. But to do this, they first have to convince supporters that they can fulfill the people's aspirations and, above all, their hopes for better standards of living. Therefore, the candidates' respective economic programmes will probably have an important impact on voting behaviour on 19 May.
