In less than a week, the next president of Iran will be elected, but the prevailing mood across the country can best be described as passive indifference. The last and third live televised debate between the eight presidential candidates on Friday failed to inspire people to go to the polls. It was widely expected that the 2+1 coalition (between Hadad Adel, Mohamed Bagher Ghalibaf and Ali Akbar Velayati) would result in two of the candidates leaving the race in favour of the more popular one. But the 2+1 coalition turned out to be a separation. This coalition reached a point that they attacked each other in a televised live programme and exposed their differences. Their major supporters in the holy city of Qom and among influential conservative parties are confused and do not know what to do. The Assembly of Qom Seminary Scholars and Researchers, a powerful conservative institution, finally on Sunday decided to go ahead and support Velayati as their leading presidential candidate, and issued a statement accordingly. At this stage the candidates showed that they wouldn't leave the race unless Ayatollah Khamenei asked them to leave. But it seems the supreme leader is not willing to interfere. He refused to take action against Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mashaie's disqualification by the Guardian Council. The supreme leader needs to improve his image among the public and stay out of the limelight to save the system and control public anger. The tarnishing of Khamenei's untouchable image after the previous election — when he took the side of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad — dealt a harsh blow to his reputation and he now needs to correct this mistake. This election might be his last chance to improve his situation. So far, not many are willing to cast ballots because they are upset by Hashemi and Mashaei's disqualification and they haven't forgotten what the regime did with them after the last election. In order to encourage this silent crowd (surveys show they make up 61 per cent of eligible voters), a major shock has to awaken the nation and give hope. Maybe a coalition of two reformist candidates? Hope may come if former president Mohamed Khatami and Rafsanjani officially support one of two reformist candidates. While none of the 2+1 coalition are willing to give up the race, the situation grows more complicated, even among the conservatives. So far, all six conservative candidates wish to remain in the race. Independent conservative Mohamed Gharazi, ultra-conservative Said Jalili and moderate conservative Mohsen Rezai are all saying they will hold on to the end. They won't bow out because they know full well that if the current mood persists, any one of the six contenders may win. Polls so far indicate that approximately 40 per cent of 55 million eligible voters are willing to vote. The fixed numbers of voters who traditionally vote for conservatives as a religious duty are among this 40 per cent. This number of voters is estimated at around 15 to 20 million, and in the absence of other voters (supporters of reformists), one of these six can easily become the next president. The turban-wearing Hassan Rouhani will no doubt draw votes from the religious constituencies up to the reformists. Mohamed Reza Aref — a former vice president — has criticised Iran's increasingly tough censorship laws, but he pales next to a shrewd diplomat like Rouhani. His lack of charisma and a strong support base make Rouhani a better choice to stay the race. The conservatives are counting on the fixed number of traditional votes, which may amount to a major tactical mistake if all of them stay in the race and Rouhani and Aref make a coalition. If the nation suddenly decides to back Rouhani, he can win easily with over 20 million votes in the first round. If all these semi-popular conservatives, such as Jalili, Ghalibaf, Velayati or Rezai, were to remain in the race, they couldn't get more than a few million each and would be more easily defeated. Ambition sometimes clouds people's judgment — from the uncharismatic Adel to the funniest of them all, Gharazi, none of the candidates is willing to forfeit their desire to become the 11th president of the Islamic Republic. Can the people of Iran afford to remain passive and complacent in these few days remaining to the election, or will the nation awaken at the last moment as it usually does?
