One thing is clear: there won't be a major change in Iran's foreign policy ahead, regardless of who becomes the next president. Whenever any of the eight presidential candidates is asked about foreign policy, they avoid answering the question directly. Clearly Iran's foreign policy is not in the hands of anyone except the supreme leader, and being aware of this certainty, the candidates can't express themselves easily. Many things, including negotiations with the US on the nuclear file, or about Syria and relations with Hizbullah, are matters for Ayatollah Khamenei alone. Between the eight candidates, at least Mohamed Bagher Ghalibaf was honest enough to confess that Iran's foreign policy wouldn't change fundamentally with a change in president. Ghalibaf, the current mayor of Tehran and a former Revolutionary Guards commander, clearly indicated that diplomacy is reversible but not foreign policy. As clear this reality is to the Iranian people, it must also be clear to the international community. Nonetheless, while Iranians like to hear about economy improvements from presidential hopefuls, the world is hopeful for foreign policy clues. So far, most of the eight candidates are putting their efforts into elaborating distinct plans on how could make the economy better and help the unemployed. Public opinion in Iran is delicate. If something touches a nerve, it can shake the nation and cause people to unite in support of a candidate. What made 1997 historic, leaving Khatami president with 20 million votes, was simply his vision of reform and democracy. Iranians' passion for democracy and seeking for the rule of law has been ongoing more than 100 years, since the Persian Constitutional Revolution succeed in 1907, changing the system of rule from monarchy to constitutional monarchy. The revolution of 1979 was a continuation of the 1907 movement, but Iranians learned from history that revolution does not always answer needs, and at this point pressure for reform rather than overthrowing the system and starting from zero again. During the last presidential elections in 2009, many observers thought a revolution was taking place and that it was crushed by the oppressive system. In my opinion, Iranians are not seeking to overthrow the regime. They are asking for reform within the current system. Slowly but surely the star of Hassan Rohani is rising. He has always been considered a moderate politician, though rather close to the conservatives. His recent campaigning performance showcased a different side to him. He surprised many when he appeared at Jamaran Hussieneh in northern Tehran near the late Ayatollah Khomeini's household to address his young supporters last Saturday. Hassan Rohani told the crowds: “I am telling you one word and unambiguously — 2013 won't become like 2009.” The crowd cheered loudly. Mohamed Reza Aref, another semi-reformist candidate, is also not doing badly. If either of these two reformist candidates wishes to compete with the major conservative candidates, one has to give up the race in favour of the other. Meanwhile, the conservatives are pulling a strong showing. Ali Akbar Velayati impressed many observers and looks like he will soon top the chart compared to his rivals. The conservatives have much hope pinned on Said Jalili, chief negotiator of Iran's nuclear file with P5+1. But his affiliation with the most sensitive institution in the government, the National Security Council, leaves him fragile to the competition. No one is impressed by Ghalibaf or Mohamed Gharzi, or the other contender, Gholam Adel. It is not clear if these candidates will leave the race or make a coalition. All of them are ambitious, showing little flexibility towards each other. Yet the supreme leader could indirectly lead them to abandon the race in favour of particular candidate. Iranians act fast if they become obsessed, like in 1997 when Nategh Nori was portrayed as Khamenei's preferred candidate, making people turn to Khatami. Another example was 2005, when people panicked, seeing Hashemi might become president. They ran to vote for Ahmadinejad to block Hashemi Rafsanjani's possible victory. Now, Hashemi is seen as a good man; people would go for anyone he might support — behaviour that makes the Iranians so unpredictable.
