The Democrats celebrated victory in the United States' mid-term elections much to the chagrin of Republicans, reports Pierre Loza Despite United States President George W Bush's dampened popularity in recent months, this week's mid-term election vote was unequivocally centred on Iraq. With October claiming the lives of more than 101 US troops and many more Iraqis, senior US officials like US Vice-President Dick Cheney believe that the surge in violence is a calculated attempt by insurgents to influence elections. The death sentence issued this week on former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein also seems to impose itself as one of those October surprises, one which could potentially tarnish the image of a somewhat enervated Republican camp. "This election is about Iraq, and foreign policy is the number one issue, as poll after poll indicates. Democrats have not had a single message on Iraq, but they will benefit because the current Republican policies on Iraq are so unpopular," said David Dumke, a political analyst who has served Congressional leaders for over a decade. With 150,000 US troops on the ground in Iraq, partly due to the overlapping of units and no withdrawal timetable in sight, it is understandable that a rising number of Americans want to see their troops come home. The polls indicate that 61 per cent of Americans don't think Bush has a clear plan for handling Iraq. Even staunch Republicans like Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson of Texas have expressed regret for having voted to authorise the Iraqi invasion. Meanwhile, more Republicans continue to join the chorus calling for the sacking of Defense Secretary Rumsfeld, whom Bush recently defended as a "smart, tough and capable leader". Despite Iraq being the most pressing priority for the average American at present, many believe the 7 November vote will ultimately be a referendum of a more personal nature -- to oppose the president who is responsible. "Historically any president in their second term reaches a point of no return in terms of power. This power does begin to wane because the (outgoing) president will never be on the ballot again, and becomes a lame duck," Dumke said. This "lame duck" status is quite possible for President Bush, especially considering that the upcoming presidential elections will mark the first time since 1952 that the vice-president does not run for the presidency. "This means that Bush's banner is over in 2008," says Dumke. It is clear that President Bush's verbal rebuke of Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, for advising college students to work hard in school to avoid getting "stuck in Iraq", has energised an embattled Republican camp. Because he is not on the ballot, Kerry's comments will probably do damage to any future presidential aspirations rather than affect the midterms. According to Dumke, "what this spat reflects is that Republicans are desperately seeking wedge issues, which they've used so well in the past. However polls indicate that their base is disillusioned, primarily because of Iraq". Among his conservative base, Bush still enjoys a 90 per cent approval rating in most polls. A string of scandals which include ex- Florida Congressman Mark Foley's sexually explicit e- mails to teenage boys, and disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff's Influence Peddling Investigation, which brought about the guilty plea and resignation of Ohio Republican Bob Ney, have placed Republicans on the defensive. "It is notable that when Bush went on his campaign swing, he went into the South. He went to campaign for seats that should be safe for Republicans, but because the situation is so bad, these seats are vulnerable," Dumke said. A report prepared by Dumke and Maya Berry projects House Democrats "to win at least 15 seats and in so doing, win control of the House of Representatives for the first time since 1994." All 435 US House seats will be contested on 7 November 2006, where Republicans hold 231 seats and Democrats hold 201, in addition to one independent and two vacant seats. Dubbed the midterms because they fall during the mid point of the President's term, the elections will also bring 33 Senate seats to the ballot, 17 of which are currently held by Democrats and 15 by Republicans. Despite the perceived Republican frailty, they do have one very important advantage--many of their candidates are incumbents who have historically had an important edge on any ballot. For Democrats to win control over the House and Senate, they will need to win 15 seats in the House and six seats in the Senate, a considerable feat, especially given that most pundits believe that only a couple of dozen seats are genuinely up for grabs. In his southern campaign, Bush warned voters of the Democrats' inability to sufficiently tackle the Iraq question and proclivity for tax increases. "The most important question in this election is Iraq, and the economy is a distant second," according to economist David Tuerck, of Boston's Beacon Hill Institute. Bush's tax cuts have been regarded by Republicans as a catalyst for the nation's positively performing economy. "I would give the Bush administration a very high rating in terms of economic performance," said Tuerck. According to Labor Department figures, the US jobless rate reached a five year low last month, plunging to 4.4 per cent, a reduction from the previous month's 4.6 per cent unemployment rate. With October becoming the third month in a row in which unemployment levels decreased, the US economy added 92,000 jobs last month alone. Despite the growth in employment levels, workers have become increasingly disgruntled with the quiescence of real wages over the past five years. "Real wages have gone up very little. On the other hand, compensation is rising faster than real wages. Compensation includes benefits for health insurance and pensions alike. Furthermore, real wages themselves are going up now faster than they were in recent months," notes Tuerck. The intensity of this year's election is made prevalent by increased campaign spending on both sides of the race. According to the US Federal Election Commission, spending by 2006 midterm candidates jumped by a third compared to 2004 candidates. Zogby polls also indicate that Democrats are leading in six or seven of the most vulnerable Republican-held Senate seats. A Congress controlled by Democrats may engender a flood of subpoenas for Bush administration officials, questioning them on everything from Iraq to energy policy formulation. The Bush administration has not hesitated to fight subpoenas it deems inappropriate, all the way to the US Supreme Court. "The role of Congress is constitutionally defined and the role of the executive branch is constitutionally defined. They may differ on where those boundaries are and that is where the courts will intervene," said Dumke. Yet a Democratic takeover of Congress could prove to be a blessing in disguise. For, according to Dumke, some of President Clinton's best work was accomplished with a Republican Congress, and there are areas such as immigration where Democrats seem to agree more with the Bush than Republicans. Dumke also made a point of disabusing people of the idea that midterm elections will not have a substantial significance to the Arab world: "If a leader who has gotten 90 per cent of what they sought from Congress like Bush has, and then he gets a Congress that is much more hostile and much less likely to instinctively agree with what he says, obviously he is going have to compromise more at home, and abroad too, so obviously it does make a difference to the Middle East."
