The Democrats' takeover of both House and Senate has already begun to alter US policy decisions on more than one level, writes Pierre Loza "I recognise that many Americans voted last night to register their displeasure with the lack of progress being made [in Iraq]," said President George W Bush in a speech following a string of Republican defeats during mid-term Congressional elections. By gaining 15 seats in the House, Democrats wrested control for the first time in 12 years. After Virginia Democrat James Webb beat Republican George Allen, the Democrats accumulated 49 seats in the Senate, thus achieving an equal standing to the 49 seats held by Republicans. In addition, two tie-breaking seats were won by independents that are to caucus with Democrats, therefore creating a 51 to 49 Democrat majority. A substantial change has already been gleaned in the US foreign policy regarding the Middle East. This has found expression in a new willingness to at least explore the possibility of dialogue with Syria and Iran. White House Chief of Staff Josh Bolton told ABC News while Bush was meeting advisors from the Iraq Study group, that all options would be looked at. It has been rumoured that among the Baker Hamilton report's recommendations is an opening of dialogue channels between the US, Syria and Iran, nations which the US previously labelled as among the so-called "axis of evil". Even British Prime Minister Tony Blair said he would call for the "greater involvement" of Iran and Syria to help the situation in Iraq. Syrian Ambassador to the US Imad Mustafa said Syria would be willing to help if the US accepted that, "its policy in Iraq had failed." It is believed that the Baker Hamilton report will either stir the US in the direction of a phased pull out of troops, or increased contact with Iran and Syria. But a similar change of policy does not seem to be impending insofar as regards the Palestinian Israeli conflict, according to James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute. Zogby says the congressional power shuffle will not mean any drastic changes in the US position. "Pressure points will remain from pro-Israeli forces. What Congress does in the way of taking action is not usually positive, but what we'll get is less of an ideological approach," said Zogby. According to Zogby, the right's electoral defeat will force them to rethink their perspective, further adapting to what he called "empirical realities rather than infantile fantasies," in the application of foreign policy. Many also view former secretary of defense Donald Rumsfeld's resignation, which was dismissed by Bush a week before the mid-terms, as recognition of the new power shift in favour of the Democrats. "One day after the elections, Bush essentially offered Rumsfeld's scalp as a peace offering to both the American people and the Democrats, which is a good sign because it is one of the rare times that -- especially with Democrats -- the president is being a little flexible," said David Dumke, of the MidAmr Group, a political think tank which operates between Cairo and Washington. Rumsfeld's potential replacement is former CIA director Bob Gates whose nomination must be confirmed by the Senate. Dubbed the Republicans' "fall guy", Rumsfeld was widely criticised for failure in Iraq and for what some called his over-confidence in constructing a slimmer and more mobile US military. His reliance on relatively small hard hitting units in Iraq was also seen by many as not befitting a guerrilla war, such as the one faced by US forces in Iraq. According to Dumke, while Rumsfeld's resignation may signal some new- found flexibility, Bush's bid to continue pushing for John Bolton's nomination as US ambassador to the UN, shows that not much has changed in the Bush administration's approach. "But this time it will not pass because Congress will not allow it to happen," Dumke said. Bolton was never approved by Congress because the president did it through a recess appointment, which allowed him to bypass Congress. In the up and coming term, a recess appointment will not be viable, which is why many predict a Democrat- controlled Congress will not approve of his nomination. Despite the reality that the Democrats' victory was largely built on public discontent with the Iraq war, it is quite clear that neither party has a tangible plan on how to ameliorate the situation. The only glimpse of hope in Iraq seems to come from the eagerly anticipated Baker Hamilton report. The report will be written by a bi-partisan task force, which includes newly nominated potential Secretary of Defense Bob Gates. The report is to question the effectiveness of US policy in Iraq, and make policy recommendations. "Republicans, Democrats and the White House are all in desperate need of guidance. And right now the best bet is this Baker Hamilton commission which they are hoping has some of the answers, because clearly there is no consensus on the Iraq issue even within Democrat ranks," Dumke said. Although a Democrat-controlled Congress will probably debate issues in a somewhat less conservative manner, many of the newly-elected candidates came from socially conservative areas, which will be reflected in voting. Zogby believes that if US policy is based more on cooperation rather than the imposition of an ideological agenda, it will greatly improve its relationship with the Arab world, which has become quite precarious of late. "The US has unfortunately gotten itself in a situation where, when we embrace somebody, we hurt them. When we involve ourselves in the demand for change, we undercut the need for change. The problem is our policy in the area, that is why the positive agenda that we want to project is undercut," Zogby said. One of the most significant developments of the mid-terms was the increased participation of Arab Americans, who played an instrumental role in a number of Democrat victories in Pennsylvania, Virginia and New Jersey. The election of Muslim Congressman Keith Ellison of Minnesota to the House of Representatives has also encouraged Arab Americans to become more active in the electoral process.
