The Lebanese desperately need Arab countries to play a greater role in their present troubles if they ever want peace and stability, writes Talal Salman The rapid flux of events in Lebanon prevents observers from making any solid assessment about the current state of high drama that characterises the country. Despite the mutterings of many in the West, it is somewhat naive to think that the crisis begins and ends with the composition of government and that the hundreds of thousands rallying in Riad Al-Sulh and Martyrs' Squares, have no other concerns to plague them than a higher share of ministerial portfolios. Something far more complex is at stake than that which is fed to us by the hastily assembled news coverage aired across the Pan-Arab satellite networks. All of this, in any case, is less instructive about the events themselves than they are about the crudeness of the official Arab political mentality and the fear the ruling classes have of the Arab street. Were this not the case, we would not be seeing that seemingly unspoken collusion to play down a "problem" which has stirred such distress among the world's decision-making capitals. How starkly the affected blitheness of Arab regimes contrasts with the daily announcements issuing from the American president. The latter entities continually express their concerns, reaffirm Washington's commitment to support the Lebanese government and reiterate their condemnation of the Lebanese opposition. They even stoop so low as to describe this opposition as unpatriotic, agents of Iran and Syria, hell-bent on overthrowing the values of democracy and civil liberties and destroying Lebanon's unity. And were the situation in Lebanon as carefree as the Arab leaders pretend, would the French leadership, along with most other European leaders, be closely monitoring that situation and voicing their staunch support for a toothless government that imagines it can stand without such essential limbs as the presidency and the parliament? This embattled Lebanese government have even lost the support of the people who are besieging government headquarters with demands for reform in a manner that more accurately represents the demographic and political balances in Lebanon. Meanwhile, the positions of the Arab governments require a code-cipher to follow the meanings behind the phrasing of official statements. These conceal much more than they reveal and are steeped in diplomatic niceties. Lebanon is embroiled in "a crisis of denominational representation," they tell us, until they shift to Lebanon being caught in "the American-Iranian power struggle over the Middle East." Or as a variation on the latter theme we hear: "The Iranian-Arab conflict has reared its ugly head again, using national identities to camouflage its true nature, which is a Shia- Sunni confrontation that has seized the current opportunity to resurface, if under the guise of contemporary slogans and mechanisms." Unfortunately, some Arab governments have resorted to this type of logic in order to cover up their failures and/or inability to assert their influence, both during the Israeli war against Lebanon and, afterwards, during the fraught post-war period when the Lebanese were trying to insulate themselves from the very type of differences that we now see escalating to the brink of civil war. This grim prospect, which would drag the region down with it, is aggravated by Arab failure to contain the catastrophic consequences of the American occupation of Iraq. More specifically, the regional powers have failed to ameliorate the resultant civil strife which consumes increasing numbers of innocent lives in the mosques, the poor quarters and the now desolate city streets that had once boasted shops and bookstores that bespoke a thriving economic and intellectual life. The link between the Arab failure to contain the Iraqi tragedy and Arab fence-sitting, if not deliberate provocation, with regard to events in Lebanon, is not imaginary. Some Arab governments claim outright, echoing the Americans, that it is essential to curb the Iranian, and by extension, the Syrian, influence in Lebanon. The logical end-point of this position is to condemn the Lebanese resistance, epitomised by Hizbullah, for instigating the "military adventure" of 12 July and instead, to support the anti-resistance contingent in Lebanon. That Washington supports this mainly governmental clique clearly puts paid to the Arabs' alleged neutrality and undermines the possibility of a new Arab initiative that might stem the dangerous slide towards civil war. To make matters worse, on Tuesday, the US has brought its pro-Seniora stance before the Security Council, resulting in a statement of support for the Seniora government. Not surprisingly, the American secretary of state seconded this support with her customary hawkish panache, ruling out the possibility of a "deal" with Iran and Syria, something that was suggested by the recent Baker-Hamilton report. The American move in the Security Council and the statements by Bush and Rice called for an immediate Arab intervention in Lebanon. Some Arab governments read the "hands off!" American message clearly, leaving the country to drift into civil war. Whatever hope that exists for forestalling civil war in Lebanon resides in the Arab initiative currently being led by the Secretary-General of the Arab League. The aim of this is to create understandings between the various factions in Lebanon over the most explosive issues that divide them and, from there, to create a national representative unity government. This will ensure that no single faction monopolises the decision-making powers. The initiative will also seek Lebanese approval of the international court's draft report regarding the assassination of Rafik Al-Hariri and an agreement to hold early presidential elections, while nevertheless allowing the current president, Emil Lahoud, to complete his term of office. These elections will be followed by early parliamentary elections held in accordance with a new electoral law that will be the subject of a separate understanding (a draft law has already been prepared by a committee of experts appointed by the current government and headed by Fouad Butros). Of course, there remains a panoply of other thorny questions that also need to be urgently addressed. Prime among these is the future of Lebanon's relationship with Syria, which currently adversely affects all aspects of economic and political life, as well as family relations in many cases. If this initiative succeeds it will be a victory for Arab diplomacy and, more importantly, it will defuse many highly explosive issues. One particularly high-profile issue bears the label "Iranian influence," which the Americans -- as well as several Arab regimes -- have been seeking to drum out of Lebanon, Palestine and, needless to say, occupied Iraq. However, it is not merely that the Iranian shadow is hovering over Lebanon; rather, the Arab presence has been conspicuously absent. Lebanon and the tragedy of the Lebanese people offers a condensed and detailed picture of the Arab condition which can be summarised as incompetence of scandalous proportions. This ineptitude leaves the field entirely open to the power struggles between the US, Iran, Israel and, more recently, Turkey in our region. Lebanon may seem a minor scratch with respect to the Arab world entire, but it is a particularly sensitive wound which has the power to direct the course of events throughout the Arab world. This is why Lebanon needs Arab backing -- support that is vigilant, energetic, truthful and involves Arabs playing the indispensable role that only they can perform.
