Russian intervention in Georgia in 2008 and the annexation of the Crimea peninsula in 2014 not only produced political tension and economic sanctions between Russia and the West, including the US and NATO. It also produced signs of an arms race reminiscent of the Cold War era, a race that moved from building traditional arms arsenals to building the most advanced and sophisticated weapons, including nuclear arms. Historians of the Cold War know that its end came when Ronald Reagan took power as US president in 1980, leading an ideological, economic and military confrontation with the Soviet Union. The arms race reached its peak when Reagan launched his Strategic Defence Initiative (SDI). The SDI presented the Soviet Union and its leaders with the dilemma of whether to respond to the challenge, which would impose a heavy burden on already weakened Soviet economy. The development produced a radical change in the Soviet leadership. Mikhail Gorbachev came to power in 1985 and introduced his new policy of Perestroika (openness). After a decade of decline of the Russian economy and military, following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Vladimir Putin came to power in 2000 and was determined to restore Russian power economically and military. Militarily, Putin started with a reformulation of Russian military doctrine that was, for the most part, intended to respond to US Atlantic expansion. This strategy came in response to then-US President George Bush Jr's project to establish an anti-missile defence umbrella in both Hungary and Czechoslovakia, which Putin considered a threat to Russia's national security. Russia intervened militarily in Georgia 2008 and annexed Crimea in 2014. The West responded by imposing economic sanctions on Russia and tried to isolate Russia internationally. Russian behaviour in Georgia and Ukraine provoked the West and Baltic States, who demanded a NATO military presence in their lands, in terms of heavy weapons together with joint land and naval manoeuvres. It was expected that this move would provoke Putin, who charged NATO with encircling Russian borders and changing the prevailing strategic balance. Putin threatened to direct Russian nuclear missiles towards countries that allowed heavy weapons on territories close to Russian borders. In parallel, Russia reacted to US modernisation of its tactical weapons by strengthening its missile defence against any possible aggression, and developing components capable of being armed with nuclear warheads. Despite the fact that Russia is now in a recession, Putin's plan included increasing the military budget by $400 billion in order to increase Russian military power through the acquisition of new weapons, tanks and missiles. In a response to this Russian plan, Jens Stoltenberg, secretary general of NATO, announced on 24 June 2015 his expectation that NATO would increase its forces, including naval forces and Special Forces. He expected this force to reach 40,000 soldiers, up from of its current force of 13,000. The New York Times published a report about the intention of the Pentagon to store battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and other heavy weapons for 5,000 US troops in several Baltic and Eastern European countries. If the proposal were approved, it would be the first time since the end of the Cold War for the US to store heavy military equipment in the newest NATO members in Eastern Europe, which were part of the former Soviet Union. As the former supreme commander of NATO said, “This is a very meaningful shift in policy.” Nonetheless, the Pentagon's spokesman noted: “At this time, we have made no decision about if or when to move this equipment.” As well, Poland has shown interest in using its position to strengthen the existing elements of a permanent NATO presence on the eastern flank, which will help in shortening the time needed for effective defence in case of an imminent threat. Some scholars and analysts have said that the developments reveal each side's capabilities and most likely the war plans in their minds. However, that does not mean that a military conflict or a war between the two is inevitable. But these developments will surely increase current tensions in Europe between Russia and the West. The head of NATO will make his first visit to the Ukraine later this month. As the Ukrainian foreign minister indicated, Stoltenberg is expected to sign an agreement that will allow the military alliance to set up an office in Ukraine and increase cooperation on strategic communications, demining, naval issues and special operations. Does this all indicate a return to the atmosphere of the Cold War? In this regard, we have to stop at Vladimir Putin's statement that “Russia will not be dragged into a new arms race.” Does this means that Putin is wary of the Soviet experience, when it was dragged into an arms race that exhausted its economy, finally leading to its collapse? Does Putin's awareness of this experience influence his relations with the West? Or will the West continue to impose a new arms race on Russia, in order to repeat the collapse of the Soviet Union? The writer is executive director of the Egyptian Council of Foreign Affairs.
