In spite of the many concerns that preoccupy the US these days, from presidential election campaigns to the Congressional vote over the nuclear agreement with Iran, the horrific events of 11 September 2001 in New York and Washington have retained their place in the US political and media consciousness. Moreover, those painful memories have interwoven with current discussions, debates and questions pertaining to the results of the war against terrorism, 14 years since it was first declared. The ramifications of that day are an important aspect of the results today and, specifically, the question as to whether the US today is more secure or more vulnerable than it was then. While it is true that, apart from the Boston marathon attack in 2013, there have been no more terrorist attacks in the US, there have nevertheless been many threats and thwarted attacks. At the same time, the US war on terrorism has not done much to alleviate the danger of terrorism. It was not stemmed by the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan waged by George Bush Jr, or by Barack Obama's withdrawal of US troops. Nor did the assassination of Al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden have a deep impact on the efficacy of the various terrorist movements. Over the course of all this time, extremists and terrorists have proven considerably astute at reading the strategic situation and responding to it through innovative and effective means. The result is that extremism and terrorism have increased. Although terrorist operations have continued to target the “distant enemy”, in France and Italy, for example, there has been an increasing focus on the “nearby enemy” in the Middle East, while its epicentre has shifted from the fringes of this region in Afghanistan and Pakistan to its centre in the Fertile Crescent and its extensions in the Arab world and African environs. Another major development is the shift on the part of terrorist movements and organisations toward securing a state-like territorial base and away from a movement of small groups that stage violent strikes in the hope that the rise of this state-like entity will destroy both the international order and the Middle East regional order. Perhaps the emergence of the Islamic State (IS) group from the Al-Qaeda womb was the beginning of the major strategic transformations in the evolution of these groups, not only toward greater fanaticism and savagery but also toward transforming themselves into a geographical reality by capitalising on sectarian and ethnic animosities, which are numerous and diverse. Nor can we overlook the consummate opportunism of these terrorist groups in their exploitation of the “Arab Spring” storm that weakened the immunity of many states to the fanatic and extremist ideas that motivate terrorism, especially with the Muslim Brotherhood's success at riding the crests of change until it reached power in several states, beginning to imprint them with its “Kharijite” character and outlook. Whatever the impact of that storm on the Arab countries it struck, a major portion of its detritus accumulated in the collapsed or collapsing states of Libya, Syria, Yemen and Iraq, furnishing an extensive base, abundant arms, plenty of porous borders and the ideal pastures for terrorists bent on a project to reshape states, societies and perhaps an entire region. Fortunately, the global war against terrorism is no longer just primarily an American/Western one. Gradually it has evolved into an essentially regional one, with global dimensions. For Arab countries, the war against terrorism did not start with the events of 11 September 2001. It began in various forms at least three decades before that when Muslim Brotherhood members were released from prison and began to rebuild their movements in Egypt and other Arab states, not to mention the branches they established in 81 other countries of the world. Then around that core, other more extreme and violent groups began to emerge, eventually coalescing into that conglomeration of “religious fascism” that we face today. Leaving it to historians to puzzle such questions as the reasons for the delay in confronting a pathological political phenomenon of global proportions, despite frequent Arab proposals to hold an international conference on terrorism, the current situation in the Arab world and the Middle East, where the war against terrorism is playing out in numerous arenas, suggests that the terrorist phenomenon, as a whole, does not possess as much strategic fortitude as has been portrayed. Perhaps this realisation is the first step on the road to its defeat. In general, the phenomenon seems to be heading in two antithetical directions. On the one hand, it is working to seize control of large tracts of land so as to establish an entity called a caliphate, as IS did in Iraq and Syria, or to link up with a pre-existing state, as occurred when Al-Qaeda leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri declared allegiance to the Taliban “leader of the faithful” in Afghanistan. Simultaneously, it is seeking to expand and stamp its emblem on various theatres such as Libya, Nigeria, Somalia, Mali, southern Algeria and the EgyptianSinai. On the other hand, the various terrorist groups, such as IS above all, appear very intent upon reducing the number of their allies and increasing their enemies. At the same time, their savage brutality and political barbarism has generally given them a false sense of ultimate victory driven by the belief that they, as groups that are purportedly “spared from hellfire”, have somehow obtained divine warrants to enslave all other Muslims as a prelude to attaining universal “mastership”. The factors above combine to create a huge vulnerability that, if properly exploited, will ensure ultimate victory over the forces of Islamo-fascism. When terrorist movements set their sights on possessing physical territory with geographic boundaries, the balance of technological and military might finds a concrete address to destroy. As these groups spread to other countries and continents, they overstretch their capacities, rendering themselves more exposed to military and intelligence systems with the necessary will and resolve, especially as the antifascist coalition grows more adept at coordination and division of labour. This, in fact, appears to be occurring more and more after every new terrorist crime. Also, the huge rise in the influx of Arab refugees coming on top of the rise in African refugees before them has increased the pressure on all parties of the international community to resolve the battle against terrorism. So far, the coalition has succeeded in preventing IS from reaching Baghdad. IS has also totally failed in its bid to obtain a territorial base it calls a “state” or “province” in Sinai. It is also coming under immense pressure in Nigeria and is under siege in Algeria. Victory will be at hand when it becomes incontrovertibly clear that the terrorist state does not possess its self-acclaimed sanctity and that it can be defeated in all of the current theatres of war.
The writer is chairman of the board, CEO, and director of the Regional Centre for Strategic Studies.
