Predicting events, particularly regional and international developments, is a risky business. In spite of extensive studies on the Soviet Union and its regime, nobody expected its collapse. The same applies to the fall of the Berlin Wall and communist regimes in Eastern Europe. More recently, developments in Ukraine and Russia's annexation of Crimea were unexpected. In the Middle East, the rise of Daesh (the Islamic State) and its destructive behaviour came as a shock. Regardless of the failure to expect all these international and regional developments, scholars, researchers and think tanks continue to issue reports and studies predicting events. Joining this intellectual exercise, for the year 2015, I forecast that we can expect that the world will continue to debate the nature of the world order and the forces that will shape it. Regardless of the number of schools and assumptions, most analysts believe that the US still has the core components of power. However, America will not be able to shape the world order as it likes, or according to its image. On the US level, President Barack Obama will work hard to dismiss conservative adversaries who say he is a failed president, particularly in managing foreign policy and America's relations with the world. In this context, indications started to appear in the second half of last year that the US economy was recovering. Unemployment fell to six per cent, a level not seen for several years. Discoveries of oil and gas spurred America to surpass the outputs of Saudi Arabia and Russia. The unexpected events and threats in Iraq, Syria and Ukraine motivated the US administration to readjust its strategy, grounded on non-intervention, to be more interventionist. The rise and ambitions of China will remain one of the major concerns of the US. The ideal option is, as it was during the Clinton administration, to make China a stakeholder within the existing liberal order. However, most experts say that China's aggressive behaviour towards her neighbours and territorial disputes may make this option a difficult one to pursue. It is expected that the US will balance its policy towards China somewhere between a cooperative relationship and ensuring America's security commitments with its Asian allies. On the European level, the Ukrainian crisis facing the EU will remain the hardest issue. Economically, the central problems within the EU will be the weak economy and the likely return of troubles with the common currency. For the Russian Federation, it is clear that US and European sanctions inflicted heavy damage on the Russian economy, together with the collapse of world oil prices. This spurred Putin to try to redress the situation by strengthening his ties with two Asian powers: China and India. As for China, diplomatic initiatives by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2014 indicate that he is, more than any Chinese president, greatly concerned with foreign policy. Over the past year he visited a number of foreign countries and held a number of Asian conferences, suggesting that China wants to exclude the US from Asia. Jinping talks about reforming the world order and its institutions, not changing the world order, which means that China's policies in 2015 will depend on the policies of others, particularly the US, where the economy will be central in its dealings with China. In the Middle East, the gravest event in 2014 was the emergence of Daesh, the terrorist organisation, and its threat to the security of the region. The alliance against Daesh could inflict heavy blows on the organisation. However, it may remain a source of troubles in the region. It may, as Al-Qaeda did, decentralise its actions and focus on weak and troubled spots in the region. At the regional level there are no serious signs on the horizon that there will be a breakthrough towards ending the internal collapse of Libya, Syria and Yemen. The situation in Tunisia is encouraging, following the recent presidential elections and the willingness of Al-Nahda Party to accept the democratic rotation of power. We can safely conclude that the year 2015 will see more progress and stability in Tunisia. As for Egypt, the New Year has begun with indications that the Egyptian economy is beginning to recover. This will depend on the success of the coming international economic conference, expected in March 2015. The hope is that the conference will attract foreign investment, which is very much needed to boost the Egyptian economy. The year 2015 will witness completion of the new Suez Canal. As the first major national project since the revolutions, it should provide momentum to other expected major projects. On the political level, the third phase of the roadmap — parliamentary elections — will take place in March. There are two alternatives: to produce a parliament that is responsive and works in harmony with the president and the government; or produce a fragmented and competitive parliament that obstructs the president and the government's projects. Stability largely depends on achieving a formula that combines both freedom and security. Regarding foreign policy, Egypt will continue to build on its regional role, which will further improve its international standing. This, in the final analysis, will depend on Egypt's stability. The current year started with the failure of the Palestinian-Arab draft resolution before the UN Security Council to end the Israeli occupation by 2017. The Palestinian Authority seems determined to depend on the international community. It is encouraging a number of European parliaments and governments to support a Palestinian state. This will require steadfast Palestinian and Arab diplomacy to achieve. It is expected that the year 2015 will witness the end of negotiations between the six parties and Iran on the Iranian nuclear programme. There are two possible outcomes: an agreement is reached, which will imply regional implications, particularly for the Gulf States and their relations with the US; or the parties fail to reach agreement, which will open the door to possible American and Israeli military attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities and potentially destructive repercussions within the region. Related to nuclear issues, the coming year will witness the convening of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference. The conference will be a chance for Egypt and Arab countries to raise the issue of making the Middle East a nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction free zone. The conference comes after the failure to convene the Helsinki Conference, originally scheduled for December 2012, according to a UN resolution issued in 2010. This plan needs careful and consistent Arab preparation, together with international contacts, particularly with the US, which frustrated the Helsinki Conference. The Arab contingent should be ready with a clear vision of the Arab position, in case progress is not achieved on making the Middle East a region free of nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction. The writer is executive director of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs.
