Is Syria finally coming in from the cold? Dina Ezzat examines prospects for an end to the political isolation imposed on Damascus On Saturday, Syria's Deputy Foreign Minister Faissal Al-Meqdad and US Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad will sit around the same meeting table in the Green Zone in Baghdad to discuss an end to the insurgency in Iraq and ways for the US to contain the bloodshed of Iraqis and its own soldiers. This meeting, according to statements made by Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, is strictly tailored to address Iraq and to solicit the contribution of all concerned regional and international powers to spare the lives of Iraqis and the territorial integrity of their country. However, and despite denials made by spokesmen in Washington, this is a meeting that will bring Damascus and Washington together to discuss Iraq and maybe other things on the sidelines. This is not the only encounter that the US and Syria have scheduled on Iraq in the near future. Later this month, a senior US State Department official plans to arrive in Damascus -- where there has been no US ambassador for close to two years -- to engage in a similar dialogue. Neither American nor Syrian officials are willing to qualify these meetings or, for that matter, other undeclared talks between semi-official figures in Syria and US think tank analysts closely associated with the US administration as signalling a new mood between Washington and Damascus. Statements coming out of both capitals, and from other informed political quarters, have been conservative in tenor. Even Syria's opposition figures are not sure what to make of the current political exchange. "The fact of the matter is that neither party is clear about how far it would go towards the other. The Americans want Syria's help in Iraq desperately. They also want Syria to continue pressuring Hamas into cooperating with the Palestinian Authority. Moreover, they want Syria to compromise its influence in Lebanon," commented one informed Syrian politician who requested anonymity. "But above all, the Americans would like to isolate Syria from Iran in case the administration decides on military strikes against Tehran. The Americans would not want Iran to have any sympathy in the Arab world," he added. Speaking to Al-Ahram Weekly by telephone, this source noted, "there is a clear decision now in Damascus that the Syrian strategy of exhausting US energy in the Middle East has been quite successful and that the time has come for Syria to start showing some flexibility." Indeed, there is growing impatience in Syrian public opinion with the negative impact of political and diplomatic isolation imposed on their country. According to Syrians who spoke to the Weekly on condition of anonymity, there are also concerns regarding Syria's association with Iran, which to some is deemed excessive. "We have gone far too close towards Iran, and at the end of the day if the Iranians found a deal with the Americans they would abandon us easily. Syria is not Iran's prime interest in the Middle East. It is the Lebanese Shia group Hizbullah," commented one Syrian think tank analyst. According to informed Syrian officials, Damascus has been cooperating a great deal on Iraq and is willing to upscale its efforts. Limitations, sources say, are being gradually imposed on the activities of Iraqi leaders who can orchestrate militant attacks in Iraq. Moreover, senior Iraqi officials say, "Syrian generals who used to operate in Iraq undercover to orchestrate militant attacks against the US are now reducing their attacks." Syria, according to Cairo-based Arab and Western diplomats, seems also to be keen to cooperate on Lebanon. Informed sources say that the decision of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad to personally participate in the Riyadh Arab League summit is clear indication that Al-Assad wants to end the rift that has separated him from the Saudi king, and for that matter the Egyptian president, since the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri. "Both Cairo and Riyadh have been very angry with the failure of Damascus to use its influence to prevent the political crisis in Lebanon from escalating. Today, Al-Assad seems willing to use his influence on the Lebanese opposition to start a reconciliation process," the source added. Meanwhile, Syria -- mainly due to concerns over expanding Shia influence induced by Iran's funding and religious leaders -- is reconsidering the nature of its affiliation to Iran. "The level of exchange of visits and phone calls between Tehran and Damascus is on the decline. This is tactical, not strategic, but it is significant," commented one Syrian source. What Syria is not willing to do, however, is to cooperate with an international tribunal to investigate the assassination of Hariri and prosecute those indicted. On Monday, following talks with Al-Assad, Belgium Foreign Minister Karl de Gucht expressed "disappointment" over Syria's refusal to transfer any Syrian suspect to such an international tribunal. Speaking at a joint press conference with Walid Al-Moalem, Syria's foreign minister, the top Belgian diplomat said that Syria's insistence that it would try any suspects before national courts is not helpful. American sources say they have not yet decided what Syria can offer. Syrian sources say it is the stability of the regime, the liberation of the Golan Heights occupied by Israel in 1967, and some say in Lebanese politics that Damascus would accept in return for curtailing its facilitation of the arming of Hizbullah, decreasing its assistance and accommodation of Palestinian and Iraqi militant resistance groups, and reducing its intelligence cooperation with Iran. The outline of whatever deal might be struck between Damascus and Washington is expected to become clear this Saturday in Baghdad. An American-Syrian deal could be enhanced, sources say, by an Arab-Syrian deal to be concluded, in all likelihood, later this month in Riyadh. "I guess the Syrians and Americans both know that an American strike against Tehran is likely in a few months. Both sides wish to cut their losses. Cooperation seems to be the best way," commented one Syrian source. But what if an attack against Iran is not forthcoming? Arab and Western diplomats in Cairo say that if the US does not attack Iran, it might pursue a path towards resolution on the Syrian-Israeli front, now that Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert seems disinterested in the Palestinian front. "Olmert had wanted to talk to the Syrians but the Americans stopped him. Maybe that will change," commented an informed Arab diplomat.
