The possibility of sanctions being imposed on Syria is sounding alarm bells across the region, report Dina Ezzat in Cairo and Alaa Riyad in New York As tensions between Syria and the UN Security Council over the level of Damascus's cooperation with the international investigation into the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Al-Hariri come to a head Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad is today expected to make a major speech. What he says will be closely analysed by concerned parties across the Middle East and beyond. Yesterday Syria invited Detlev Mehlis, head of the investigation, to visit Damascus "at a date [he] will specify" to sign a protocol of understanding on the procedural rules that will govern the investigation as it seeks to clarify the alleged involvement in the assassination of six senior Syrian officials. Arab sources say that Monte Verdi, the Beirut resort where Mehlis conducted the best part of his earlier investigation, is likely to be the venue of the team's latest deliberations, and add that Lebanon is also a possible venue for any international tribunal should it be decided that enough evidence exists to try the officials. Cairo, Riydah and the Arab League have increased their contacts with Damascus in an attempt to persuade the Syrian regime to exercise the pragmatism and flexibility necessary to head off what they perceive as an inevitable storm. Arab diplomats fear Syria will face sanctions if it continues to assume the situation is a passing problem the US will be forced to overlook given the quagmire it faces in Iraq. Egyptian and Saudi officials have repeatedly urged Damascus to cooperate fully with Mehlis. In spite of their warnings, fears remain that Syria may continue to offer only limited cooperation to Mehlis, who has already told Arab and foreign interlocutors that it is only a matter of time before Syrian involvement in the killing of Hariri is proved, and that continued prevarication on the part of Damascus will provoke a region-wide crisis. In Damascus yesterday, Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa underlined the seriousness of the regional and international situation. During talks with Syrian officials, including Assad, Moussa encouraged Damascus to take the tough decisions that will help Syria escape the threat of sanctions. He stressed the urgency of the situation, as conveyed to him through international and regional contacts, including his own talks on Tuesday in Cairo with visiting UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and in Riyadh with Saudi King Abdullah. During his Middle East tour Annan urged Syria to "fully cooperate" with Mehlis and appealed for Syria to be given another chance. During talks in Cairo and Riydah Annan heard warnings from Mubarak, Abdullah and Moussa about the "extremely negative consequences" of forcing Syria's back to the wall. Damascus, Annan's Arab interlocutors indicated, will increasingly cooperate as it begins to decipher the writing on the wall. However, they added, the international community, especially Washington, needs to spare Damascus from any undue pressure and explicit arm- twisting. Speaking to the press in Cairo Annan offered Syria some encouragement, referring to its "good record of cooperation". And in a lecture delivered at Cairo University Annan insisted that "no nation should be collectively punished for the crimes of some of its individuals." It is not a line likely to find much with the US Permanent Representative to the UN John Bolton. In statements made in New York on Tuesday Bolton reiterated Washington's growing impatience with Syria, not just over its record of cooperation with Mehlis but also in its implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1559 calling for an end to Syrian influence in Lebanon. Bolton and other US officials have also criticised Damascus's alleged support of militant groups in Palestine and Iraq. Speaking to Al-Ahram in New York before embarking on his Middle East trip this week Annan said "the UN Security Council wants the truth." "It wants to ensure that Lebanon, like all nations, is in charge of its own territory and has responsibility for its own safety and security." "In time," he added, "we hope Syria and Lebanon will develop normal relations and exchange ambassadors." Annan was keen to downplay the possibility of Syria suffering the same fate as Iraq which endured more than a decade of sanctions before the US invasion. "I have heard the suspicious [who talk about] a regime change or manipulating to reach this change. I think the Security Council members are very conscious of the situation on the ground and [of the fact that] we have a very difficult situation in Iraq," said Annan. He hastened to add, though, that he could not be sure "that no one wants to open another front in Syria". Arab and foreign diplomats appear to agree that what Syria must do to spare itself any punitive measures is to ensure that the reports presented to the Security Council in the coming weeks over its cooperation with the investigation and implementation of Security Council Resolution 1559 are sufficiently positive to allow both Russia and China to maintain their stance against the imposition of sanctions. Mehlis is due to present his next report to the Security Council before Christmas while Terj-Roed Larsen, the UN's envoy to Lebanon, reports on the implementation of Resolution 1559 in spring. If Syria misses either of these two deadlines, say diplomats, it will be digging itself into a hole. Nor, they add, should Syria assume it can escape Washington's anger by reducing its support to the resistance in Palestine and Iraq. It is mush too late for that kind of deal. Yesterday in Damascus, Syrian Minister of Information Mahdi Dakhlallah announced that his country would "conduct itself with realism and flexibility as always".
