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Treading a tightrope
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 02 - 11 - 2005

Detlev Mehlis returns to Beirut amid fears that Security Council Resolution 1636 may pave the way for sanctions against Syria, report Dina Ezzat and Serene Assir
Detlev Mehlis, head of the UN inquiry into the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Al-Hariri, returned to Beirut Tuesday morning to continue his investigation. His arrival came a day after the UN Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 1636, milder in wording than the original draft but insistent that should Syria refuse to cooperate in the investigation "the Council, if necessary, could consider further action".
Damascus remains apprehensive that Resolution 1636 -- based on the notoriously malleable chapter VII of the UN Charter covering "threats to the peace, breaches of the peace and acts of aggression" -- may yet pave the way for economic sanctions. On Tuesday the Syrian Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying: "We consider the resolution to be very negative towards Syria," further adding that the fact that it was passed unanimously makes it even more problematic.
The resolution demands Syria cooperate fully with the ongoing UN inquiry, the mandate of which expires on 15 December but could be extended. Syria is required to detain suspects and ensure they are available for questioning. If named by either the Mehlis team or the Lebanese authorities Damascus is also expected to impose a travel ban. There are, too, provisions for the freezing of the financial assets of suspects though Security Council members, in an attempt to guarantee UN oversight of the implementation of the resolution, can oppose the implementation of specific measures.
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Syria will face "serious consequences from the international community" if it fails to comply with the resolution, while British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw has accused Damascus of "grudging and evasive" behaviour. In Tel Aviv Resolution 1636 was received with glee. "Israel welcomes the Security Council's involvement in this issue," said Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, adding that "strong action must be taken by the international community to bring an end to Damascus support for attacks on the Jewish state."
Responding to the Security Council vote Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk Al-Sharaa insisted Syria had fully cooperated with the UN investigation and derided Mehlis's argument that Al-Hariri's assassination could not have been staged without the compliance of Syrian security services as tantamount to saying the US authorities must have had prior knowledge of 9/11.
Two days before the Security Council meeting Damascus had announced it would launch its own inquiry into Al-Hariri's assassination, supervised by a special judicial committee that would cooperate with the UN team while investigating allegations against Syrian officials named in Mehlis's report. The announcement followed an intense inter- Arab diplomatic drive urging Syria to display maximum restraint in the face of mounting international pressure in order to minimise the possibility of sanctions being imposed. Egyptian Official sources, speaking to Al-Ahram Weekly on condition of anonymity, said President Hosni Mubarak had urged Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad to offer every support to UN investigators.
Mubarak's aim, said one Egyptian diplomat, was for Syria to come to realise the magnitude of the crisis it could face, regardless of whether Washington's threats are "tailored to distract attention from the situation in Iraq or force Syria to dilute its support for the Lebanese and Palestinian armed resistance". Mubarak then underlined the damage that would incur should sanctions be imposed to Riyadh, Tripoli, Paris and Washington.
"We need to avoid creating new flashpoints in the already troubled Middle East -- given the ongoing situation in Iraq and the occupied Palestinian territories," said Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit. "What we need is to defuse tension, not augment it."
"While the Arab League believes that the killing of Al-Hariri should not go unpunished it also believes it would be irrational and illogical to impose sanctions against Syria on the basis of an inconclusive investigation," read an Arab League statement issued this week. Arab diplomats in Cairo say an understanding was brokered across the Arab world -- supported even in Lebanon -- by Egypt and Saudi Arabia to campaign, with the support of Moscow and Beijing, against sanctions.
"The Syrians mistakenly thought they could buy time," says Clovis Maksoud, former Arab League Representative to the US and Director of the Centre for the Global South. "They did not anticipate the way the pressure would intensify and when it did they tried frantically to defuse the situation. Finally they decided to take substantial action, which was when the Egyptians and the Saudis intervened."
In Lebanon, says Maksoud, many believed "the Mehlis report constituted a final condemnation of the Syrian regime, and they too were wrong", adding that "what the US has been trying to do in recent weeks is to divert attention away from its own problems. The ruling Republican Party thought that if it put excessive pressure on Syria it would succeed in shifting the spotlight away from the scandal surrounding [Vice-President Dick Cheney's long-time Chief-of-Staff Lewis] Libby, which could potentially open an irreversible floodgate."
Though content with the outcome of their efforts so far, Arab countries know much work remains to be done. Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa is planning to visit Beirut and Damascus to help ease tensions at a moment he describes as "tough for the entire Arab world". In addition, the Arab League is considering a limited summit to discuss the issue further, though prospects for such a meeting remains uncertain. Damascus, on the other hand, has announced that it had not called for an Arab summit -- limited or otherwise.


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