This year's UN General Assembly (UNGA) could be historic for Iran in terms of getting closer to reaching a comprehensive nuclear agreement with world powers, or walking away and choosing a different path. Iran's nuclear talks with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany (the so-called P5+1) will resume on the side lines of the General Assembly on Thursday 18 September. After the conclusion of the UNGA, less than two months remain for Iran and Western powers to reach a final nuclear resolution by the due date of 24 November. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani made monumental improvements to Iran's reputation and contributions to the UNGA last year, after only one month in office. Despite great achievements in the past year in talks on Iran's nuclear file, the atmosphere as talks resume Thursday is not expected to be very positive. Goodwill on both sides ended up with the Geneva agreement last November, and following that the extension of talks in Vienna on 19 July, but distractions in recent days leave the forecast for the talks a little rainy. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, ahead of the nuclear talks, expressed his anger and frustrations over recent US approaches to the crises in Syria and Iraq. Iran has stressed the fact that Syria and Hizbollah is a red line, and that anything jeopardising their allies can't be tolerated. A regional and international coalition led by the United States to confront the terrorist organisation Islamic State (IS) hasn't been welcomed by Iran. John Kerry, the US secretary of state, said that for certain reasons, with all due respect to Iran's president, Iran could not join the coalition to fight IS. In the eyes of Supreme Leader Khamenei, this statement was a direct assault on the Islamic Republic, and in contradiction with stated US aims to normalise relations with Tehran. Perhaps for Tehran all these efforts to fight terrorism in Iraq can be seen as a trick to overthrow Bashar Al-Assad, their major regional ally, by arming Syrian rebels to confront IS. On Monday, 15 September, Khamenei tweeted: “If the US enters Iraq and Syria without permission, they will go through the same problems as they did over the past 10 years in Iraq.” His words were a bitter reminder of Iran's proxy war against the US via Shia allies in Iraq in the post-Saddam period. This battle didn't end until Iran and the US launched direct talks on security in Iraq. Iran and Syria share long borders with Iraq. Any coalitions with other neighbours or regional partners absent the presence and assistance of these two countries are unlikely to be successful. Iran's dominating influence in Iraq is key to making any operations inside Iraq effective. The US has refused to talk with Bashar Al-Assad since his government was deemed “illegitimate” and instead they want to count on the Syrian opposition — the so-called moderate rebels. Iran is not worried to lose Iraq to the US. Its major concern is the Syrian regime in Damascus, which the war against terrorism can also make a target, by arming and training Assad's opponents. The price of US interference in Syria can pay off in the nuclear talks, since both Iran and the US are aware of their need to reach a final nuclear deal, regardless of regional matters. Compromise has to be made by both sides. If Iran is willing to reduce its nuclear activity, the US has to accept Iran as a powerful regional player. The choices for the US are as limited as they are for Tehran: to decide whether to accept the other's conditions in regard to regional matters, or see the parties break apart, returning to distinct national security outlooks. Closing Iran's lagging nuclear file would be considered one of the clearest achievements of President Obama's presidency. From the Iranian point of view, wrapping up the nuclear file before Obama ends his second term is also important. There is no guarantee that what presently exists in the way of harmony between negotiators would continue if Iran and P5+1 fail to reach a comprehensive agreement by the 24 November deadline. For sure, Iranian negotiators will have less flexibility as this new round of talks resumes in New York. Iran's negotiators have been guided by Khamenei, regardless of their own personal opinions. His anger was clear a day ahead of the negotiators leaving Tehran for New York. This anger for sure will be reflected in the positions of Iran's chief negotiator, Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran's foreign minster, who will lead the talks in New York. Last week, US Undersecretary of State Wendy Sherman addressed about 200 foreign ambassadors to the United States in Washington and implored them to tell their capitals to pass two crucial messages to the Iranians. Al-Monitor quotes Sherman as underlining “the importance of seizing what may be the last opportunity to reach a nuclear deal,” adding “that no agreement will be possible without Iran reducing the scope of its nuclear enrichment programme.” If Sherman warned Iran of the consequences of failing to grasp the opportunity, Iran's supreme leader used belligerent language to warn the US to stay away from Syria, indifferent to the importance of the nuclear talks. The chief of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps says the US and its allies will regret any military operations in Syria. “The Islamic Republic of Iran's policy is to support Syria, and this US action is from a bullying position and is condemned, and [if the US goes it goes ahead] it will regret it,” Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari said Tuesday.
