Nothing has yet been achieved between Iran and the United States, nor between Iran and the P5+1 (permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany), in negotiations over Iran's disputed and controversial nuclear programme. The first meeting in New York, on the sidelines of the United Nations, between the newly elected government of Iran and the West prepared the ground for last month's meeting. The P5+1 deemed the talks constructive and positive. But there is no breakthrough yet. The details of the negotiations haven't been disclosed, suggesting a new political will to reach common ground and to minimise risks to the fragile negotiating process. Iran's regional neighbours, including the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia on the one hand, and US-ally Israel on the other, are not entirely happy with the talks, especially when the details are kept from them. Israel in particular is on edge, underlining past US guarantees against a “nuclear armed Iran” deemed “non-negotiable” by Washington. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei is saying, meanwhile, that Iran can't trust the United States no matter what good initiatives Washington proposes that appear to favour a diplomatic solution to Iran's nuclear file. A day before Iran marked the 34th anniversary of the occupation of the former US embassy in Tehran (4 November), Khamenei in a meeting with students repeated that he is not optimistic about the negotiations, but not against them either. Iran is not optimistic, insiders say, because former US President Bush betrayed Iranian trust when they were cooperating over the war against the Taliban in Afghanistan. Ryan Crocker, former US ambassador in Afghanistan and Iraq, in an Op-ed published in The New York Times on 4 November confirmed speculation of Iran's unhappiness towards the US following assistance they provided in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Interestingly, also in comments on Sunday, Khamenei said, “The nuclear programme is always an excuse for the US. Even when this issue is solved, there would be other excuses for the US to continue its hostile behaviour towards Iran.” If this is what Khamenei is thinking, why has he supported negotiations? “With great effort, our diplomats are engaged in a difficult mission,” Khamenei commented. “No one should weaken them, insult them or comprise them.” Iranian Foreign Minister Mohamed Javad Zarif and his team are due to meet with the P5+1 again in Geneva 7-8 November. Khamenei on Sunday even hinted that other matters it may be discussed between Iran and the US: Syria and Hizbullah. A broken economy and the internal consequences of heavy international sanctions have left little if any room for the new government in Tehran to bring an improvement to the lives of Iranians unless they sit at the negotiation table with the West. Lifting the sanctions is now essential for Iran, in order to meet domestic public demands. If the US is pursuing its own regional interests, and this warm up with Tehran is tactical, as Khamenei is thinking, then why wouldn't Iran seize the opportunity to pursue its own interests too? Meanwhile, regional powers, some analysts say, would be better to support the talks, as a positive outcome would almost certainly lead to a more cooperative and flexible Iran on the regional level. If a solution were found, Iran would then be a position to quell its own hardliners. The current government would become stronger, and the hardliners would become weaker. What Khamenei said on 3 November about Hizbullah was more important than the support he has given to the negotiations team. Khamenei said the US would turn to the matter of the “Axis of Resistance” after the nuclear file is settled. The axis means Tehran, Hizbullah and Bashar Al-Assad, Iran's ally. Khamenei knows well what the US and Western countries are asking from Iran, and he is making himself ready for the next steps if the nuclear issue is solved, including addressing Syria. Untangling the nuclear issue could lead to a breakthrough on many other issues, such as the Syrian crisis. So there is a hope of a breakthrough during the upcoming talks between Iran and the P5+1 in Geneva — perhaps not incidentally the same city in which the long-awaited peace conference on Syria is due to take place this month.
